Daily Racing Thread Sunday 20th. June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jun 19, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2014
    Messages:
    3,566
    Likes Received:
    3,126
    #1
  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    25,690
    Likes Received:
    7,936
    Really looking forward to that Hexham card <badger>
     
    #2
  3. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2012
    Messages:
    10,596
    Likes Received:
    4,415
    <rofl>
     
    #3
    OddDog likes this.
  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,518
    Likes Received:
    1,553
    Kind of glad Ascot is over. It is a difficult meeting to get winners at but with the heavy rains it became a bit of a carve up.

    The French Oaks (Prix Diane) is the top quality away from Hexham and it is a competitive affair, as seen by SkyBet offering SIX places for each-way bets.

    Joan Of Arc is narrow favourite for the 10F Classic and she was runner up in the Irish Guineas last time. I didn't feel her form was strong going into that race but she put in a good effort. The trouble is that Empress Josephine did nothing for the form in the Coronation Stakes and every other runner from that Guineas has run unplaced next time out. Joan Of Arc is up in trip now but looking back to her Group 3 win, all nine subsequent runs were also unplaced efforts. I don't like the look of that when considering a bet on a favourite.

    Couersamba was a shock winner at 66/1 in the French Guineas. Even trainer Jean-Claude Rouget was flabbergasted by the result. I have seen her described as the one to beat on form but I am not at all sure she wants another 2F and the fact that she is 11/1 suggests there is a suspicion of "Flash in the pan" about her Guineas win.

    Khalidiya and Burgarita are tied through form. The latter filly won by a length when they made their debuts and both went on to win their next races. Alain De-Royer Dupre is often patient with his horses early on and perhaps his filly Khalidiya can reverse form with Fabre's Burgarita this time. She is three times the price of the Fabre filly at 12/1 to 4/1 on some lists and that doesn't seem right to me, with only a length to find on their previous meeting.

    Incarville had a touch of seconditis before landing the Group 1 Prix St Alary last time. A few of today's opponents ran behind her there, including Cirona, who only lost by a head after trying to make all. Sibila Spain does not have much to find after being 4th and Es La Vida who was 3rd has even less to find. Rumi, who was 6th in the Saint Alary and Harajuku who was 7th also reoppose but have a bit more to find, particularly the latter, who was a bit disappointing that day. I felt that race was a bit too congested a finish to stand up as good form and I am looking elsewhere for today's winner.

    Philomene was dropping back in trip when contesting the French Guineas and I didn;t think it would suit her. In the end she simply seemed outpaced and crying out for further when finishing 6th. She wasn't far behind the bunch finish for second place behind Couersamba that day and in her previous race she had landed the Group 3 Penelope by 2 and a half lengths from St Alary winner Incarville eased after just being pushed out hands and heels. To me, that looks the strongest doem and I cannot understand why Burgarita is shorter in the betting. A daughter of Sea The Stars, Burgarita has done nothing wrong but her form is not at Philomene's level in my opinion and she drops back a furlong after a Listed win over 11F last time. I feel Philomene probably has the edge by 7 lbs for now and she's far fromfully exposed herself.

    Conclusion:-

    I backed Philomene for the race after her Guineas run. She was 9/2 then and I felt compelled to go in again at 6/1. Khalidiya is 20lbs behind Burgarita on Racing Post Ratings but I can't have that after a race where there was only a length between them. Looking back at it Khalidiya travelled well into it and matched Burgarita before seeming to tire and go down a length on what was her first run. She won cosily next time and though that was only a maiden, the runner up won a Listed race next time. I can't have Khalidiya being rated only 80 and I think her chance is a lot better than the figures suggest, She's worth a saver I feel at 12/1 with improvement very likely.

    3.00 Chantilly Philomene 6/1 and Khalidiya 12/1 (Saver)

    Good luck all.
     
    #4
  5. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,710
    Likes Received:
    3,680
    I've had a little ew on Harajuku at 25/1 (4 places) for this. Good luck with yours and to anyone else having a bet after a tricky week of punting.
     
    #5
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2021
    Pilgrim, karlos5001 and Grendel like this.
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,518
    Likes Received:
    1,553
    The Prix De Bois is a Group 2 for 2YO and there is a good mix of interest from outside of France.

    Napa Spirit represents Wesley Ward and is unsurprisingly favourite for the race with Barzalona up. Once raced at Keeneland in a Maiden over 5 and a half furlongs the son of Invincible Spirit came through under hands and heels to win readily by a length and a half. He was odds-on that day and it didn't look like he beat much with the 4th home going on to be a beaten odds-on favourite when readily thumped in a Maiden Claimer next time out. Obviously Napa Spirit could improbe a lot and he could be anything but this might be a very different test today and Wesley Ward didn't have the anticipated success at Ascot with his juveniles. At the 11/4 odds I had to pass on spirit for once.

    I once worked in the atomic energy industry and noticed that Kevin Ryan has taken Atomic Force over to France. Second on debut, Atomic Force won his maiden readily next time out when pushed clear. He was odds-on for that race though and Hamilton is not usually a hotbed for Group 2 horses on their next start. A son of first season sire Cotai Glory, there could be more to come from him but he was gelded after his first start and I think he has a bit to find to win this.

    Mountain Madness came through and quickly put the race to bed last time, coming right away to win by eight lengths. It was a facile success at 11/1 odds but she probably didn't beat much. The re-opposing Black Lives Matter did win narrowly next time but others were beaten similar heavy margins on their next starts. Mountain Madness is a daughter of Territories and she looked as of the experience would not be lost on her last time. At about 7/2 2nd Fav in most lists her chance has not been missed though.

    Dizzy Bizu is two for two and looks to hold the strongest form so far after a Listed win last time out. She still seemed a shade green that day and she could have more to come. A daughter of Caravaggio she didn't seem very big to me but more of a concern is whether she is a 5F horse. On her debut she was being closed down in latter stages and only prevailed by a head. Will she be as suited by 6F today?

    Best Sixteen has been busy and ran up a hat trick last time. That was his 5th start though and he has been winning claimers at short odds. This is a very different kettle of poisson, as they say in Chantilly. I feel his sequence ends here.

    The one I like is Solotov. Another son of Invincible Spirit he made his debut over 5 and a half furlongs here. He made all and was shaken up in front to come away and win by a slightly eased three lengths. A bit early to say what he beat but the one horse to run since got nearly fourteen lengths closer in 5th than he did behind Solotov. I thought Solotov's win promised plenty more to come and the extra half furlong will be no issue and he is proven on soft ground. I would think improvement will see him go close today and he is backable at 11/2 in my opinion.

    2,15 Chantilly Solotov 11/2
     
    #6
  7. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,725
    Likes Received:
    1,310
    Morning

    3.00 Chantilly-Sibila Spain

    Each Way @ 10-1 [Paddy Power] 4 places

    She has a lot of natural ability
     
    #7
  8. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,133
    Likes Received:
    721
    What about EILEENDOVER over at Ponty? Running on the flat today :)
     
    #8
  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    25,690
    Likes Received:
    7,936
    I can’t help thinking she will be priced up too short because of what she did in those bumpers but flat racing is a very different game - especially in pattern company.
     
    #9
  10. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,431
    Likes Received:
    1,394
    Worcester
    14,00 Monsieur Gibraltar 4/1

    Chantilly
    15,00 Incarville 12/1 e/w five palces whit WH, 11/1 six places with Sky
     
    #10
    Grendel and Sir Barney Chuckles like this.

  11. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,133
    Likes Received:
    721
    Different ground conditions too, she was 7/1 10 minutes ago now 11/2 but I think that's because of a non runner. I'm thinking she will go close today.
     
    #11
  12. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,710
    Likes Received:
    3,680
    Had a bet at Ponte aswell. All four horse are ones i've backed and won with several times before. All four really short prices though.

    2:55 - The Flying Ginger 2/1
    3:55 - Selsey Sizzler 7/2
    4:25 - Furzig 6/1
    5:25 - Mr Wagyu 5/2
     
    #12
    Pilgrim and Sir Barney Chuckles like this.
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    12,189
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    It was interesting that the Juddmonte horse that beat her was entered up today in the novices race, which to me suggests that the raw form of that debut isn't strong.
     
    #13
  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    25,690
    Likes Received:
    7,936
    I'd be schooling her over hurdles if she were mine
     
    #14
  15. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,017
    Likes Received:
    1,402
    Re Eileendover not sure I'd be risking over hurdles given her pedigree and the fact that she is already a Listed winner in the NH sphere. I would imagine that if it becomes apparent that she is not going to be of a similar level on the Flat then she will be hastily be dispatched to the old breeding shed. Would be a very valuable proposition in the paddocks.
     
    #15
    Pilgrim likes this.
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,518
    Likes Received:
    1,553
    Well I was correct in opposing Napa Spirit but Solotov was dire, weakening away very disappointingly. It was Hamilton scorer Atomic Force who had the race in the bag a long way out. He took it by the scruff of the neck and powered away in grand style. This was a very taking win for the Ryan colt, even if he may not have beaten much in a Group 2 that looked full of unproven performers. He hit the line five lengths clear of 40/1 outsider Black Lives Matter, with 9/4 Fav Napa Spirit well back in 5th after being quickly beaten coming into the closing stages. Atomic Force won with such authority though, that he needs to be taken very seriously when next seen and I would imagine a trip over the Channel for the Morny would be in order.
     
    #16
    Pilgrim likes this.
  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,518
    Likes Received:
    1,553
    WTF was the jockey doing on Philomene?

    Dawdling about at the back as if he had grass growing and then asking his filly to come from an impossible position. She managed to finish second but Joan Of Arc sat handy all the way and was in a position to strike. It took her a while to warm up but she wore down those who were prominent and hit the line before the finishers had got out of their farting sacks.

    Aidan O'Brien is like a big boy stealing these races from the weakling trainers in France who are getting sand kicked in their faces time after time with their Dick Turpin hold them up to the death one dimensional tactics.

    C'est La Vie.
     
    #17
    Pilgrim likes this.
  18. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,710
    Likes Received:
    3,680
    Only 6th after travelling through the race really well. Got swallowed up just before the line to lose a couple of places. Skybet paid 6 places but were only offering 16/1 at the time i placed my bet so i used bet365 (4 places) instead.
     
    #18
    Pilgrim likes this.
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,518
    Likes Received:
    1,553
    That was a much better effort from Harajuku today. She reversed form with five of the six who finished ahead of her in the St Alary, with only Sibilia Spain ahead of her today. Only a head and a nose behind her old rival this time, she had been nearly five lengths in arrears last time and I don't think she ran her race that day.

    I was disappointed with Khalidiya today. She was beaten very early and never got involved. I am not sure if she was a Pricewise selection but her odds did contract markedly from the 12/1 on offer early doors. Sent off 11/2 I suspect it was more than just myself who expected a better show.
     
    #19
    Pilgrim and smokethedeadbadger like this.
  20. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,710
    Likes Received:
    3,680
    That's why i took my chance with it today. I chose to ignore its last run as i don't think it was a true reflection of the horse and taking that run out of the equation then todays price looked huge. Wasn't to be but i got a good run for my money and wasn't far off. Unlucky with yours mate. I like the jockey you'd had up but he's done you no favours whatsoever today.
     
    #20
    Grendel and Pilgrim like this.

Share This Page