I generally peep in here around this time each year to parasite-feed off people who know more than I do, with a view to an ante-post bet on the Superbowl to keep me awake across the winter. Seems to be a resounding silence this year (where's Grizzly when you need him?). My first thought was a gentle £250 on the 49ers at around 8-1, but I could be talked out of that. Anyone got any firm views before the kick-off ?
49ers are probably the best all round team in the NFL so would be a pretty fair bet. Obviously you can never tell (otherwise the odds would be shorter than 8-1) but yeah, if I had to pick one it'd be them.
Thanks, Dan. I hasten to say that the proposed £250 wasn't necessarily a head down, all-in, win it or lose it bet. I'd be having it on Betfair, with a view to (maybe) taking a partial profit when the 49ers get to the play-offs - as they surely must, no ? At that stage, unless a couple of other teams really look indestructible, they'd probably be between 4-1 and 5-1. My view of their schedule is that it's testing, but not viciously difficult. If they can keep their key men healthy, I'd expect them to reach the Conference final as a minimum. But, as you say, if it was that easy we'd all be rich... Enjoy the season.
One problem with the Niners schedule is their division. Seahawks have a very, very good roster, and Rams and Cardinals are both improving to the point where they'll be very difficult games. That said, I'd be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs. I mean, I fancy them to get the #1 seed, which is Divisional round at the least. There's always the chance the Read Option will be sussed or Kaepernick will self destruct or a number of different things, but yeah, I fancy it.
Ummmm. Not sure that was the greatest bet ever struck. No complaints about SF with the ball, but I'd say the Defensive Co-Ordinator is looking at some long days. Several missed tackles, at least two examples of covering players not being on the same wavelength, and maybe a reservation about the kicker. That said, it's early days and GB are generally well-regarded. I'd hoped that SF would win a little more easily - it was still up for grabs deep into the fourth - but the bookmakers have cut them to a general 13-2, so maybe I'm being hypercritical. I take your point entirely about the Seahawks, Dan. I'm assuming the home team will win both games, which I'd regard as a result. And a fervent prayer for Boldin to stay fit: the reflexes, the hands - can anyone think of a better close-season bargain ?
49'ers and Broncos seem to be the consensus albeit somewhat slight favorites. I think the 49'ers are the better team, but the Superbowl is in NJ this year which I think will slow down their offense should they make it. Seahawks are a good pick out of the remaining top 5 teams. Might be worth it to buy a lottery ticket on the Redskins just because of RG III's seemingly unlimited potential.
49ers were my bet,albeit slightly biased. Seahawks will also need to be watched. Broncos from AFC look a good call so long as Manning stays fit. But a cheeky outside bet is the colts. Andrew luck should be well settled now and has the potential to lead them all the way.
Don't count on it. I love Andrew, give me him over any other QB long term, but our defence is terrible, our offensive line is among the very worst in the league and I'm not sold on any of our coaches.
Fair point dan. A win against the raiders is no major shock. Bit more of a test next week against the dolphins. The AFC looks to be a little more open than the NFC but can't really call much after a few pre season games and 1 regular.
Dolphins will be interesting. The main thing we struggled against against Raiders was stopping Pryor's running, Tannehill isn't nearly as much of a threat on the ground. Playing against Kaepernick and Wilson will be fun though!
Most analysts had Seattle, and San Francisco has the 2 best teams in the NFL. They play each other twice this season and if one team wins both games, that team will win the division. My biased opinion is that they'll split the games and the Niners will take the division, and ultimately the division. The best team in the AFC is Denver and Peyton Manning's got a pretty abysmal play off record, an I eoulnt be surprised to see an relatively unexpected team from the AFC to make a run to the Superbowl.
The Niner's defense is fine. Most of the problems you brought up can and will be addressed and fixed as the season goes on. As a 49ers fan, I'm not worried about the game yesterday. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB playing right now, and Green Bay has a potent air game, and the invested in the OL and the ground game during the offseason so they're a bit more rounded out this season.
Everything you say is true, Manobear, and I'm really not looking for Reasons To Be Gloomy. But the fact remains that SF gave up 28 points at home, and - almost certainly - only won because of self-inflicted turnovers, some silly penalties, and one manifestly incorrect refereeing call. I agree that GB are very decent, and time may show that this was an important win against dangerous opposition. But I won't be rushing out to put more money on SF at present.
For those who like to know how a story ends......rightly or wrongly, I've decided that the 49ers won't win the SB and I'm trading out at 7.6 (went in at 9.1). They're quite capable of winning in Charlotte, but I've decided to just lock in the profit. I still think I was basically right about the defence. After an overpoweringly superior first quarter, I thought they looked uncertain and ponderous. They had their hands all over Rodgers at least twice, and still let him get the pass away: I don't say they were lucky to win against GB, but they could easily have lost, and - while I'm open to argument - I reckon we've seen the best of them. See you in September.
Fair decision to trade out, Panthers is a real tough match and 49ers haven't been as good as I, or most people, expected. Still, pretty funny looking back and seeing a tip to buy in on Redskins and Griffin - or should that be RG3-and-13?
