Survival Chances

The gap to Watford is 3 points, and to Leeds in 16th - 6 points
But with the way things are going, does anyone remain optimistic that Norwich can survive this season?

 

Sadly, no. I think Burnley and Watford are going to pick up enough points to get to the mid-thirties, Leeds will pull away once all their players are fit, and Newcastle are going to spend, spend, spend (if any of you old folk remember that), so I can't see us getting the required points total.

And frankly at the moment it is hard to see us getting more than we did in 19-20.

 

Can't even hope for survival when I can't answer two basic questions: 1) who will score 2) who will defend.

Neither was I thrilled with our battle plan yesterday of kicking long balls forward.

 

It’s utterly pointless going long when we have Pukki up front isn’t it. We might as well concede the game.

I think what’s most frustrating for me is that I don’t see our players/team as being incapable of scoring goals. There are some decent, creative players there and I am confident it is a better squad than two years ago by some margin.

But the belief and desire just seems to be absent, the effort put in the last two matches has just been so poor. They are playing like they just don’t care.

 

Yeah, they work to get the ball then give it right back with bad passes or bad touches. It looked to me like Smith didn't trust them either with the way he had us play the long balls all the time, like he doesn't believe we can move the ball forward otherwise. On the plus side, Gunn is accurate with his kicks if only had someone to kick to.

Here's hoping tomorrow we look better.

 

For me, this is the most depressing thing of all. Two years ago, we were recognised as a team trying, and sometimes managing, to play very attractive football (at least until the lockdown). This season the results are even worse and we're not playing with any kind of recognisable style anymore. We look clueless and disjointed (to be fair to Smith, this pre-dates him - Farke seemed to have lost belief in his methods and to be torn between his previous style and a recognition that we needed to toughen up and be more pragmatic, but never quite embraced the change and therefore fell between two stools IMO).

 

We need a miracle to survive. We need our best team (we have been unlucky with covid and injuries) and things officials to go our way to stand a chance, but I think it is beyond this team

 

But I doubt if you'd be thrilled either if we were still trying to play out from the back against these EPL teams whose strategy is to press high and win back possession in the opposition third! Dean Smith's teams play that style of football (press high, win the ball back high). Before Covid and the latest injuries struck, you could see the adjustment being made. The level of disruption and congestion of holiday fixtures has temporarily derailed the process.

 

I never cared for playing it out from the back, either, especially in the PL. That leaves hitting on the break or working the ball up the pitch. We might agree on this: Norwich doesn't have Premier League speed nor technical ability. Other than Normann, there's no one I get excited about when they have the ball.

 

Yes, playing it out from the back does lead to lots of heart-in-mouth moments. But I'm not sure yesterday's tactic - Gibson booting the ball high to the wing where a not very tall Tzolis tries to win headers against taller Palace defenders - was a great improvement.

 

Chances - around 1% I would guess. We either need three of the four teams above us to collapse or alternatively take seven wins and seven draws from our last nineteen games. Both of which seem very unlikely. I do wonder how much longer Ranieri will survive given that Watford are on as bad form as us. Newcastle have the same mountain to climb as us virtually. Their only hope us to pay mercenaries mega wages for the remainder of this season. Not sure how that might work. I think that Burnley and Leeds look the most likely survivors.

 

I think the target has to be eight wins, with four of those being our remaining games against Newcastle, Burnley, Watford and Leeds. The other four can come anywhere. If we manage that, I’d say we survive.

If.

 

Let's be realistic, Rob - there's no chance, is there? Especially since we seem to have started the process of turning ourselves from a team based on possession and technical ability into a hoofball outfit based on muscle and speed. Even if that works, it will take more time than we have. So three years from now, we might be Burnley. I can't wait.

 

Indeed - but I also get quite excited when Kabak has the ball

 

Agreed - that was kind of where I was going with “If.” I think our chances are very slim.

Oddschecker prices our relegation at 1/1 and survival at about 7/1. Which equates to 9% to 12.5% chance - with bookies’ margin splitting that each way, it means we are betting priced at a 10% chance of survival. I’d say that feels generous - more like 5% or one season in twenty a team survives in an akin position - and so your money on us being relegated wouldn’t be misplaced.

 

I think the way we played against Palace was dictated by necessity. If we get Kabak back and Sørensen moves back to DM we'll play a more passing game, as that is what our players are suited to.

As for our chances of survival I'd say very slim at best. The loss of Normann has hurt us badly and Gilmour is no replacement. For me, it depends on how much our new players can improve and how soon Pukki returns as he is our only striker PL defences would be worried about. If we sell Aarons and/or Cantwell for decent money then we might get new players in who could make a difference. As Rob says, we also have win or draw against the four other teams around us and we need to improve more than they do for that to happen. I think we can, but we need to see that improvement soon and then sustain it.

 

Honestly Rick, I don’t think a draw against any of the other contenders will cut it - I think there is no margin for error now, we need to win those matches or be relegated. That’s why it’s so unlikely we will survive.

 

That's a different kind of excitement.

 

What I meant, Rob, is that with 19 games left it depends on more than just those 4 games but they are the most crucial ones on the six pointer principle. We have already paid the price in the last 3 games because of missing players. Burnley have avoided that and so now have 3 games in hand, though they did lose last night. Watford have 2 games in hand and Leeds 1.

We have to hope that fixture congestion becomes a factor for the others, but we need overall improvement as well as good results against the other 4. We need around 24 points from 19 matches to have a chance of survival. It could be that our enforced winter break gives S&S a chance to work on skills and tactics in depth over the two weeks until Everton. Pukki and others desperately needed a rest and they have it now. We just have to hope that we can make that count and keep points coming in. That wasn't the case two years ago, but hopefully our new players and any additions in January can make a better fist of the second half of the season this time. A home win over Everton would be a good start.

 

Sell Aarons & Cantwell and try and buy one of those players that other teams have that put the ball in the net .

Pukki is past it Sargent and Idah are still learning