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The 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle


    As usual, the 2016 festival will commence with the Supreme Novices Hurdle and that famous, guttural roar as the runners are sent on their way. The race was originally called the Gloucestershire Hurdle, and it used to be split into two or three separate divisions. The Irish trainer Vincent O'Brien recorded ten victories in the race during an eight-year spell in the 1950s.

    Run on the Old Course (as are all races on the Tuesday and Wednesday of the festival, except the Cross Country) over a distance of about 2 miles and 110 yards (3,319 metres), there are eight hurdles to be jumped and swift, accurate hurdling is essential in order to hold a good position coming down the hill. The final uphill climb to the finish demands the ability to really see out the trip.

    Up until a couple of years ago the race was known as a graveyard for the previous season’s Champion Bumper winner (Dunguib and Cue Card being recent examples who were backed off the boards but failed to win) but over the last 3 years the race has become the Rich Ricci / Willie Mullins / Ruby Walsh benefit show with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan all carrying the (ahem) rather questionable pink-with-green-spotted silks to victory. Looking to continue that trend in 2016 is another French import, Min, who has won 2 from 2 in Ireland and is now a very short-priced favourite.

    Latest odds 20th Jan 2016 (Bet 365):

    Min 5/4
    Altior 6/1
    Yorkhill 8/1
    Buveur Dair 12/1
    Yanworth, Bellshill 14/1
    Tombstone 16/1
    20/1 Bar

    Without knowing exactly who is going where at the moment, this looks on paper to be a match-up between Min and the Henderson pair of Altior (a likeable, battle-hardened type who just keeps finding more) and Buveur Dair, who is totally unexposed and has Mr Henderson purring (apparently). As usual the bookies have sucked all the value out of the top of the market so it is probably worth waiting until the day of the race to spot any e/w value (or hope Min drifts to a backable price <laugh>).

    The race closes for entries on Feb 2nd so expect to see entries published on Feb 3rd with a supplementary entry stage on March 9th. If past trends are anything to go by though, we won’t finally know who runs until the day before the race.


    The 2016 Cheltenham Festival Megathread
     
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    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 31, 2016
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  2. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Okay folks, it is “do not shoot the messenger” time...

    A week or so ago, a mate of mine told me a horse called Little Jimmy was running but it held three or four entries in crappy little races and he said that it would win whichever one they opted to contest. I completely forgot about it and it bolted up at 25/1 in a six-runner race at Bangor. My friend was less than happy when he saw me the following day because he did not have a dime on it either as he was stuck in a traffic jam on the motorway when it ran!

    The thing is he gave me one horse for Cheltenham. As I am working, I am hoping I can get away with watching Channel 4 online in the office but I will not have to wait long to see this run:

    The Willie Mullins’ Hurdle (aka Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): Altior.

    Sorry to Barney and the County Set if my mentioning it turns out to be why it gets short-headed by one of the nine Mullins’ runners, especially since it appears to be second favourite in the betting.

    Right, back under my rock until the flat season...
     
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  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Irrespective of the trainers record in the race (he's got to win it again at some point) Altior has the right profile and many of the right attributes. I was very impressed with the way he quickened up at Kempton and ever since I have been having this recurring dream of him powering away from the field up the hill.
     
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  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Oddy, I hope you are right. All I can tell you is that my friend owns shares in a couple of unraced flat horses and has previously owned shares in a couple of flat horses that never won a race between them. He is currently toying with the idea of buying a share in an unraced NH bumper horse that the trainer thinks they will be able to sell on for big money but that sounds like the triumph of marketing over reality to me. If they bought a £50k horse for £4k, why did nobody else spot it?

    Both his unraced flat horses are supposedly going to hit the track in the next couple of months, so naturally I will let folks know when they have an entry what he has been told of their chances. I know that one of them is currently working on the gallops with one of the yard’s better older horses but catching pigeons on the gallops frequently does not translate into racecourse performance. I bet it ends up running on the “all weather” on a rainy Wednesday at Lingfield!
     
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  5. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Whats wrong with running on the all weather on a rainy Wednesday?
     
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  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I cannot believe that I am bothering to spell this out, but what I was insinuating was that if the trainer says the horse is working well with one of his older horses it is not actually a potential superstar and it will be thrown into some crappy midweek median auction race rather than a valuable Newmarket maiden race in April.
     
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  7. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I only ask because my horse is running on a Wednesday on the all weather at the end of the month. Running in the race will qualify him for a £100,000 race.
     
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  8. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    I have to say that it's a bit of a minefield but I am very keen on Altoir... Min is going to be there or there about's you would think and the whole feeling that Mullins will seewp away the opening days racing might not be guaranteed...

    I've backed Min in a three timer accy, but I've got a good e/w bet on Altoir... My outside bet for placing would be Tombstone...
     
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  9. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Yorkhill not entered tomorrow!
     
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  10. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    YORKHILL goes to the Neptune.

    In an unlikely twist when your consider the form a couple of months ago, BELLSHILL is having a crack at the Supreme!
     
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