The Epsom Derby - June 4th 2022

All very 'foggy' at the moment, best to wait until Ballydoyle sort things out, don't think they know much themselves at the moment? The Dante race this week will certainly help, as a few will of course 'crash out'. Hope it's not Desert Crown! I really hate it when one trainer has six or seven declared runners in a major classic, but that's the way things are nowadays. The French system puts a stop to a lot of betting skulduggery by 'coupling' horses under the same ownership. That won't ever happen in the UK and Ireland though.

 

Never thought of 'different joint owners', that 'sinks' the French 'coupling' system straight away!

 

What if all the Godolphin hopes fall over and they decide to run their 2000G winner?

 

Maybe I'm alone in thinking this, but I'm astounded that no mention was made of the Derby after his Guineas win. Perhaps the 2000G has superseded the Derby as the stallion making race. I would think it is only recently that the 2000G winner wouldn't have a go at the Derby given half a chance of getting the trip. Maybe SheMo has lost the hunger for the Epsom race having won it twice.

As regards his pedigree he traces back to a Nureyev half-sister to Balanchine (by Storm Bird and who won the Oaks and the Irish Derby). He's by Dubawi who has never sired a Derby winner but who finished 3rd in the race himself. He has sired plenty of 12f horses including Ghaiyyath, a really classy one. Coroebus's damsire is Teofilo (by Galileo), who given the chance should have stayed 12f. His great damsire is Dubai Destination who was the damsire of Golden Horn, and has mainly been a source of stamina despite being by Kingmambo (Golden Horn's sire was Cape Cross so hardly a source of stamina). The only weak link is possibly Nureyev but he was closely bred to Sadler's Wells, and it was more his style of racing than his pedigree that defined his stamina. So I think he has an excellent Derby pedigree.

More than anything it's his style of racing I like and that makes me think he'll get 12f at Epsom. He's very relaxed and has a high cruising speed. He also has a change of gear. He should be going for the Derby.

 

Only 3 Derby Trials to go. The Dante today, one in Ireland at the weekend and then the Cocked Hat (used to be the Predominate) next week at Goodwood. It's all about Desert Crown today, it seems. By the undervalued Nathaniel out of a Green Desrt mare, who traces back to to a Whitney mare called Peace, who became one of Juddmonte's foundation mares. It may be symbolic that Peace's daughter Intermission was one of the first horses to put Stoute's name on the training map when he trained her to win the Cambridgeshire in 1976 (Jeremy Tree trained the filly but loaned her to Stoute as in that dry, hot summer he couldn't give her the preparation she needed on the Beckhampton gallops).
Lots of promising colts in the trial today. Unless there's an outstanding winner then whoever does win it will still have to do a lot of improving today to get near being a Derby winner.

 

Desert Crown didn't let me down!

 

From the way he ran today and his size I'd think Epsom would suit him. He'll also be a stronger colt by Derby day. Though I still think he'd struggle to beat Coroebus if he ran.

 

Well the '22 renewal of The Derby certainly needed life breathing into it and cor blimey, team, it got that yesterday as Desert Crown ran away with the Dante. Awesome performance. Game, very much, now on...

And let's hope we get another creditable challenger from one of the final couple of recognised Derby trials still to be run. Or alternative something appears from nowhere like Serpentine in '20.

A quick note though re Nathaniel (sire of Desert Crown). To date 5 of his daughters have won at the highest level - most notably, of course, Enable. He is, though, yet to have a son win a Group 1 race.

 

Gosh, and to think Coroebus was my choice for the 2000 Gns.! You have certainly convinced me that Coroebus will stay the Derby distance, didn't enter my calculations beforehand. I'm already 'on' with Desert Crown, so a 'saver' on Coroebus might well be a good thing!

 

Yes, and don't listen to me.

 

.....but many of us do, Bustino!

 

Thanks, Oddy, I learn something every day! I'll just stick with the one I'm already 'on', he should run a big race in the Derby.

 

Re the last mention of these 3 races I see that the connections of Lysander are making positive noises about him and the Cocked Hat - and then, possibly, the Derby afterwards. Probably, as a result of what they have said the 3YO son of New Approach is 'blue' across the board on Oddschecker, at the time of writing, for the Epsom Classic - best price available is still as big as 50/1, though as low as 25's in a place.

Lysander won his sole '22 start by 8.5 lengths and is a nicely bred sort with the dam a half-sister to Darasim (dual Group 2 winner). Lysander would need to make a massive leap forward to be considered a contender but Friday should tell us a lot more re this 120,000 gns purchase.

 

Latest scratching stage today. 21 remain

Cazoo Derby (Epsom June 4)
1 Buckaroo Joseph O'Brien
2 Changingoftheguard Aidan O'Brien
3 Desert Crown Sir Michael Stoute
4 Eydon Roger Varian
5 Glory Daze Andy Oliver
6 Grand Alliance Charlie Fellowes
7 Hoo Ya Mal Andrew Balding
8 Ivy League Aidan O'Brien
9 Lysander William Haggas
10 Masekela Andrew Balding
11 Nahanni Charlie Appleby
12 Piz Badile Donnacha O'Brien
13 Royal Patronage Charlie & Mark Johnston
14 Sir Bob Parker David Menuisier
15 Sonny Liston Charlie Hills
16 Star Of India Aidan O'Brien
17 Stone Age Aidan O'Brien
18 United Nations Aidan O'Brien
19 Walk Of Stars Charlie Appleby
20 Westover Ralph Beckett
21 West Wind Blows Simon & Ed Crisford

 

Two Appleby entries. Is that it?

 

Supplemental stage on 30 May so we’ll see.