We have 17 games left to play 3 of those are against teams currently above us: Bolton home on Saturday Barnsley home on Saturday 18th March Ipswich away on Friday 7th April Following that tough game against Bolton, the following Saturday we go to Shrewsbury who the in form team flying up the table and level on points with us (having played one more game) And on the very last day, it's away to Portsmouth. Could that be the one that determines our fate? In terms of play off chances it looks 50/50 at the moment. Barnsley have a run of tough games coming up, starting with Derby on 25th Feb followed by Bristol R, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Wycombe, Sheff W and Ipswich, all in March. If they get through that they will be favs to take one of those play off places. If they lose some of those, it's down to us to make sure we take advantage Realistically, I think we will struggle to get 9 points by the end of Feb. but if we do, we are in with a good chance
So we have 9 games left against teams in the bottom half of the table plus 5 other games against teams presently below us in the table and only 3 games against teams in the top 6 then Ron if I'm not mistaken
Must admit I think we will probably miss out by finishing 7th, I thought that last season & we got through thanks to the last game of the season & Plymouth imploding.
There is one thing that happens like night following day is that come the run in Plymouth and Arsenal will implode
The average for a 6th place is 75 points but last year we made 6th place with 83 points. That is a massive target this year. If we beat the bottom 8 teams that would take us to 71 points, which means we would need to get 12 points from the games against Ipswich, Barnsley, Bolton, Shrews, Exeter, Pompey, Charlton, Lincoln and Bristol Now, we know we are likely to drop a clanger or 2 against the bottom 8 so let's say we get 18 points against those, that would leave us needing 18 points from the other 9 games This is how the bookies see a top 6 finish. With Derby 1/10, Bolton 1/6 and Barnsley 1/2, they aren't giving us much chance of making the top 6. They even rate Peterborough with a better chance than us Let's see how those odds have changed at the end of the month. We could be down to Evs or out to 10/1
Thanks for the confidence vote Guy. There is a difference this season to most and I grant you we have had history of pulling a hamstring on the final lap before, but this squad seem to have a different quality to last. You may be right though and only time will tell. Ron, we went through a set of matches where we played virtually the other 9 in the top ten either at home or away. I didn't expect us to do well given last seasons record against the top sides. We did brilliantly and smashed all expectations. Surely you have to have more confidence about your lot given you do the betting thread and know that there are upsets on a mamoth scale almost weekly. I still maintain that any club can almost beat any other in this league which makes it all the better as a competition.
Agreed, but 36 points from 17 games would be a major achievement. Only you and Sheff W have achieved that level so far
Doesn't mean you can't though and the others including ourselves have to keep up a pace. It's been a bit of a strange season so far. There is only 10 points between 10th and a relegation spot at the moment. It's not because the bottom clubs has so many it's because the 10th team has so few. Looking the other way there are gaps upwards as well. But, as we all know form is fragile and most teams wobble at some point. I'm quite amused that loads are expecting us to drop off at any moment yet we carry on getting results regardless. I read the Ipswich board a bit and they are quite funny with their super confidence one week followed by immense gloom the next. They spent ages saying Plymouth would drop out and now are wobbling themselves on that one. For me it is what it is and either we make it or don't. As long as it's a good season and entertaining then the outcome bothers me less each year.
Like you Greeny I think we have had a great season up to now apart from losing at home to Walsall in the FA Cup, apart from yourselves who haven't been in the Championship for a few years it's certainly not a disgrace to finish behind the clubs who are currently in front of us
Our form recently has been stunning, last 10 games we have won 7, including Derby, Ipswich, Portsmouth and Peterborough. lost 1-0 against the top 2 and drew away at Lincoln. If that continues we will be in the playoffs, however surely we have to slip up sometime.
"apart from yourselves who haven't been in the Championship for a few years".......... Wot you trying to say Phil? Argyle are massive or at least they must be. I hear our Demport End singing it every home match. But, I have to say posts on this thread have become a bit more positive so keep it up and you will be booking your place at Wembley again.........
Comparison with League One table in February 2020 to February 2023. Wycombe 53 points from 30 games in 2nd place, compared to 50 points from 30 in 2023 in 7th place
Barnsley at home to Derby next Saturday Their March schedule looks interesting: Saturday 4th March Bristol Rovers v Barnsley Tuesday 7th March Barnsley v Portsmouth Saturday 11th March Barnsley v Plymouth Argyle Saturday 18th March Wycombe Wanderers v Barnsley Tuesday 21st March Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday Saturday 25th March Barnsley v Ipswich Town Tuesday 28th March Exeter City v Barnsley
Top 6 odds I'm not suggesting that we are a good bet for a top 6 finish (7/4 best price and two go 5/4, pretty mean odds) but, looking at the remaining games, I wouldn't fancy taking those crazy odds for the 4 above us Ipswich have to play Bolton, Derby, Barnsley and Peterborough away plus Wycombe and Shrews at home Bolton have to play Portsmouth and Sheff W away plus Ipswich and Shrews at home Derby have to play Barnsley, Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheff W away plus Shrews, Ipswich and Portsmouth at home Barnsley have to play Wycombe away plus Derby, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Sheff W, Ipswich, Shrews and Peterborough at home Could be interesting
Talking to a couple of Bolton supporters after the game they seemed convinced it would be Ipswich who missed out on the play-offs, also they were not too worried about losing yesterday they were more interested in winning Wednesday night against & having a trip to Wembley. Also with our fixtures by the time we play Pompey their season will be over, even though they will not fancy losing at home in the last game of the season..
All we can do is the same as the start of the season win as many games as possible & see where we end up
Plymouth need to watch it with Barnsley and Ipswich battling for that second auto spot. But, on paper, they look to have the easiest run in of all the top 6 I suspect Wycombe and Bolton will lose their next games, which could put Peterborough in with a shot at the play offs. But they do have Derby, Shrews, Ipswich and Barnsley to play That 6th place is looking extremely tight
