The Open Championships - Royal Lytham & St Anne's 19th-22nd July

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With a pile of work stacked taller than my golf bag sat next to me I really should be busy ploughing through. Instead I can think of nothing but golf, the open championship at Lytham to be precise!

 

Put a couple of £ on Zach Johnson @ 70/1

 

I've gone into great deal of detail in researching my bets for this years open, this will no doubt have no positive effect what so ever on the chances of the players who will have the misfortune of being my picks.

I have been looking in detail at the performance stats on the PGA tour website. Woods and Clarke have been very vocal this week on the "unplayable" rough at Lytham, not entirely surprising or out of the norm for a links course and even less surprising when you consider the rain we have had, which goes to emphasize the importance of sticking to the fairways, which is where the driving accuracy comes in. Lytham is not a long course so I have skipped the driving distance. Greens in regulation as well as the putting also make interesting reading.

From that I have picked three names that seem to pop up fairly highly on all of the lists:

Greame McDowell 33/1 - Very talented player, not hit his best yet imo. Top on driving accuracy. Has gone close in two of the big ones this year.

Zach Johnson 66/1 - Having a good 2012, with two tour wins this year. Hits the fairways, maybe a bit of a sentimental pick as he has won me money this year. Always makes the cuts so my bet should still be alive come Saturday i hope!

Luke Donald 20/1 - Consistent type, always there or there abouts, has a tour win this year, had a good Scottish open (5 shots off the lead) in difficult conditions, similar to those expected on Thursday in particular. Won't score spectacularly under, but won't try to, I can see a few players getting into trouble trying to score under in difficult conditions.

 

Beat me to it! Was just writing that up

 

The Open Golf Championship comes to us from a not so sunny Lytham St. Annes with the predicted weather for the week given as 'not the best'. So what difference will that make to this years Open. Well for starters all the talk by the players is that the course is in great shape but once you step off the fairway you can forget it...!!!

So what will this golf course give us this week. Well if anything is to believed then its going to be tough and so you will have to be the type of player who can plot your way around the 18 holes. Be able to take your punishment if you get in trouble and almost celebrate a birdie. The thing with links golf course's is that by definition being right next to the coast its the weather, mainly wind, that makes the course hard or not. Benign wind conditions and you can shoot a low score but once the wind gets up it changes the course completely. The fact that the set up of the course sounds like being a tough test means that any sort of bad weather will make it very hard to score on. So we wont be seeing the low scoring we have seen in the recent tournaments. I have read that they are trying to set it up like the US Open in which anything under par will will it...!!!



The only thing i will say is that the last 9 'Majors' have gone to first time winners, a trend that may well continue here. Phil Mickelson is the last player to add another Major to his haul when he won the 2010 Masters, which only goes to prove how hard it is to win a Major. So which player hasnt won a Major so far who may turn up this week and continue this trend of first time winners...?

Top of the betting charts is Lee Westwood, 15/1, followed by Luke Donald, 18/1. Are there two better golfers out there at the moment who have not won a Major title. My own thoughts on Donald is that he is going to need a lot of luck. His driving isn't all it should be, and that's a major no-no on this course. Westwood will always be there or there about's and i think the links courses can work to his game as long as his putting is in order. He misses too many 3-5 footers that make all the difference in the end. Justin Rose, 28/1 is returning to some sort of form at the moment but like Lee its his putting that has let him down this year. Saying that he has a new putting coach this year and hopefully we can see some improvement here this week. Ian Poulter, 40/1 and Sergio Garcia, 33/1 lead the next in the list and although Garcia has had top 5 finishes in every Major tournament and his time of getting to the top seems to be getting less and less as each one passes him by. Poulter though has the game to win one but i dont think the links courses suit his game. Of those left in the top 20 of the betting Molinari, 40/1 showed last week that he can play Open links courses. Adam Scott, 40/1 is another to go close, but he hasnt had the best of years so far. Hunter Mahan, 40/1 has had a good year and if he can bring his game has a chance. Jason Dufner, 40/1 is another who is enjoying his golf this year, a multiple winner on the PGA can he win the Open in only his 3rd visit to this competition. Rickie Fowler, 40/1 came close last year in a tied 5th position in his first attempt at the Open and Matt Kuchar, 50/1 is the last of the top players without a Major victory but he did win this years Players tournament.

And so to those with a Major under there belt we have Tiger Woods, 9/1 leading the way, and why shouldn't he. Though he hasnt won a Major since 2008 he is always going to be a threat. Rory McIlroy, 16/1 is still finding out what flowers his girlfriend likes and has maybe took his eye away from his golf. If anybody though can just turn up and smash a course its this lad, and if the wind dies a little he can pepper the flag from anywhere. Paddy Harrington, 18/1 hasn't found the form that won him 3 Majors back in 2007/8 and coupled with his woeful putting at times i just cant have him winning the Open this year. The enigma that is Phil Mickelson, 33/1. Brilliant one day, just bloody awful the next, and that reflects in his odds as you don't often see him at 33's in a tournament. It will be another miss this year as well for me. Graeme McDowell, 33/1 is the type of player who gives his all when the chips are down. Never gives in and seems to find his game come the big tournaments and when a big play is needed. Was in contention at this years US Open before falling to the course like most of the players did this year. Has a good chance. Ernie Els, 40/1 cant put in 4 good rounds together to win this, and will certainly have one bad round this week. Martin Kaymer has toyed with his game ever since he won his 2010 PGA title and has gone backwards ever since. And that leaves us with Louis Oosthuizen. The likable South African will be trying to emulate his St. Andrews victory of 2010 and has a chance, but he isnt in the greatest of touch at the moment and i dont think he will figure here.

I do think that the winner will come form one of these players as this course has shown in the past that you need to be right at the top of your game to win here. David Duval back in 2001 was the worlds number 1 golfer. Seve back in 1983 was the best golfer around as was Tony Jacklin when he won here back in 1969, the last English winner of the Open Championship here at Lytham, and i can see that trend still applying here.


So to who i think will do well here and win it, well here is what im thinking...

Justin Rose has shown that he can compete at the highest level and has won some very prestigious titles over on the PGA tour, but a Major has so far eluded him. He is paired up with Tiger Woods on the initial 2 days of the competition, as well as Sergio Garcia, and i actually think that this will help him. His mid iron play is superb and the approach shots to these greens is vital. My only negative is his putting but he is saying all the right things about this new coach and these new methods that he has him doing and so im going with him to be there or there abouts...

Graeme McDowell is one player i really like and his attitude is just superb. Fights for every shot and gives his all no matter what the shot, conditions or situation. His 2010 US Open win propelled him into the big time and to be honest he has been knocking on the door in a couple of the recent Majors only to just fall short. His driving is superb, ranked 2nd on the tour for accuracy, and his mid iron play is very strong. His only weakness this year has been his putting but you know he will be trying his stones off to get the best out of his game this week...

Hunter Mahon is having a great year so far and will win another big tournament after his win at the World Matchplay back in February. He has good driving accuracy (ranked 11th), coupled with good iron approach play, (3rd in GIR) so he can play well here. If he gets his putting game going then he is one of the hottest on the tour and can easily put a run of birdies together very quickly. My only negative is his sand save stats, something that you will need around here with over 200 bunkers. A ranking of 120th dosnt give out a feeling of great confidence in getting out of bunkers but if he can avoid dropping shots when he does go into one then hs has a good chance...

Rickie Fowler showed last year at St. Georges that he can play links style golf. He played very well in the wind and rain last year to post an impressive T5th in only his 2nd visit to the Open. If we get similar conditions then he can use what he learnt last year to help him around this tricky course. He hasnt played since his disappointing showing at the US Open where he finished T41st, but he is the type of player who can turn up and hit the ground running...

Dustin Johnson, like Fowler last year showed that he can handle the links course's and the conditions if they turn nasty, his tied 2nd place last year at St. Georges is testament to that fact. Has had a mixed year as he missed some of it with a back injury but seemed to benefit his absence with a victory in the Fedex Cup at St. Judes. He can smash the ball a long way, but he can also plot his way around a golf course. He has got some skill in getting out of the bunkers and his scrambling stats arnt too bad...


So in all ive picked 5 players for this Championships

Justin Rose @ 28/1...
Graeme McDowell @ 33/1...
Hunter Mahon @ 40/1...
Rickie Fowler @ 40/1...
Dustin Johnson @ 50/1...

All done at £2.5 e/w... PadPow are paying 1/4 odds on top 7...


Good luck to all who have a play and lets hope for a good Championships...

 

Blimey! You've mentioned about half the field there, i'm sure you have the winner in there somewhere! You missed Charl Schwartzel

 

Still only picked the 5 though Jeff... They all have a chance but its going to be hard to get the winner if the wind and rain gets up but we shall see... Fingers crossed...

 

Red im taking your picks if you dont mind you are the wizard of the golf!

 

Now I dont play golf and only watch the major tournaments so was interested to see what my fellow 606ers think of a potential e/w bet for the British open starting on Thursday. Granted that this is a linx course I would be looking to rule out some of the big hitting american players.My workmate reckons Paddy Harrington has definite chances so will have a little e/w on him and also on Justin Rose.

 

Going to have to be very accurate so i am siding with zach johnson to be there or thereabouts as he has been in good form recently!

 

I like Harrington alot aswell, he seems to have refound his best form this year, and was placed at both the masters and the US Open! Links courses are where he is at his best, so I fancy he could mount a serious challenge. The only thing that's putting me off is the price, I'm not sure he's value at 20s.*

 

Harrrington will like the course and he's got the bottle; but he'll need to vastly improve his driving on this course.
I prefer his compatriot, McDowell. He's got the bottle as well- and his driving is far more accurate.
Although there are so many people discounting Woods, he could do another Hoylake here- use irons and three wood off the tee.
However, the golfer I should like to put forward will be mentioned by very few.
He is in the top 20 of driving accuracy on th PGA Tour; he is sixth in greens in regulation; 2nd in birdie average. The only thing that has tended to let him down is his final round.
Nonetheless, on recent form he is arguably the best in the field. His last five performances read...
1st, 68th, 1st, 2nd, 4th (US Open).
At 50/1 (EW top 6) , Jason Dufner could go all the way- accepting that golf is a punter's nightmare.
By the way, he has crept up unnoticed to 7th in the World rankings.

 

Ben Curtis has the game to win this and at 100s he's a nice price, I've backed most of the Saffas as well, Oosthuizen is probably the most likely one but if Shwartzel is over his injury he could win the thing, as can the likes of Brandon Grace, Thomas Aiken and George Coetzee.
I have also had a regulation interest on Dustin Johnson who will one day win an Open and intend following him off a cliff until he does.
Paul Lawrie completes the list.
Early weather forecasts stronger winds on Thur morning easing as the days wears on, I've therefore centered my strategy around late Thur starters

 

First Round Leader:

MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ 125/1 e.w What a bloke. Plays really solid golf across Europe and the sort of guy who can get himself in the frame early on in tournaments. Solid and unspectacular, and on his day an excellent putter. Nice odds to have some little interest.

Rory McCilroy 25/1 is a big price for 1st round leader, as we know he can start tournaments so well.

 

Il agree with Tamerlo onthis Mcdowell has the best driving accuracy of any of them, and going by the opinions of some of the pros, keeping the ball in play will be the key to victory

 

Keegan Bradley @ 100/1

Geoff Ogilvy @ 125/1

Nicolas Colsaerts @ 70/1

Charl Schwartzel @ 60/1

Louis Oosthuizen @ 40/1

Just a few quid each way on each with bet365,

Goodluck everyone

 

Anyone doing a 3ball for this? Could be a bit of fun, I'll put up a thread (or anyone who wants to do it) if people are keen?

The open championships 3 ball competition

 

Right i've weighed everything up and these are the boys for me:
G.McDowell 35/1 Hills
J.Dufner 50/1 Hills
J.Furyk 50/1 Hills
C.Schwartzel 66/1 Hills
K.J.Choi 125/1 Corals
R.Karlsson 150/1 Lads
£8 win on all 6.Good luck everyone!

 

Happy for you to do it Jeff, I wont have the time this weekend to collate scores, but il certainly have a go if you do the comp

 

Backed Jimenez e/w 125/1

Poulter 50/1

McCilroy 25/1

All Ladbrokes, all for First Round Leader