The Players Championships at TPC Sawgrass, Pont Vedra Beach, Florida

Welcome to this week’s PGA Tournament and one of my favourite events, The Players Championships at Sawgrass in Florida. This is often called the ‘Unofficial 5th Major’ and you can see why as you get high drama, tension, and great golf no matter who wins it. It obviously has the one hole that stands out in the memory above all others, the par 3, 17th, with all its water and small looking green. But that is one hole of three that make this tournament what it is. The 16th 17th and 18th would test any golfer no matter if you were leading a tournament by 5 shots, so trying to make a move from 5 shots back can sometimes happen…!!!

The 16th is a par 5 that a few players have a chance of making an eagle let alone a birdie, which precedes the famous 17th hole. Many a player has had to endure the 3-4 minute walk around the lake trying to summon up the mental strength to hit a golf ball some 140 yards or so and miss all that water. Then we come to the 18th which has just as much water as the 17th but it runs right down the left land side of the hole from tee to green, not all around it. Many have dropped shots here to lose from winning positions, but some have shot 3 under to make a charge and win the event also. That’s why it’s classed in the same breath as the 4 Majors we have around at the moment. The funny thing here is that the 17th had more birdies or better than any of the other par 3’s on the course last year, but it also had the most bogey or worse numbers as well. Risk and reward, not really, but get it wrong and you feel a right chump as you walk round the side of the lake with the crowd baiting you for making such an amateurish mistake…!!!


Anyway, this course and event throws up a few interesting stats that I thought you need to know if we are going to try and find a winner here this week…


Firstly, only 11 players have featured twice in the top 12 over the past 4 years. Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar – winner in 2012, Sergio Garcia – winner in 2008, Zach Johnson, Luke Donald, Bo Van Pelt, JB Holmes – recent winner of the Wells Fargo this weekend, Chris Stroud, Martin Laird and Davis Love III – winner back in 2003. Even last year’s winner Tiger Woods hadn’t featured in the top 12 for the past 4 years. This also shows up when you look at the number of multiple winners here in its now 40 year history, only 6, with only Jack Nicklaus winning it on three occasions. So this means you can have a good chance of hitting with a big outsider making the top 6 for the week. Kevin Streelman came T2nd last year, at odds of 80/1 while Martin Laird was a 100/1 shot. David Lingmerth was 400/1 and Jeff Maggert, who along with David finished in tied 2nd place, was a 500/1 at the start of the event. Ryan Palmer, T5th, was a 175/1 shot as well. Henrick Stenson, who was 60/1 pre the event, went on to have a wonderful season last year and he finished in Tied 5th also. So, we can get some big odds value around if we look hard enough, or are lucky enough, who cares as long as we hit…!!!


Another stat is that in trying to find players who are suited to this course it is interesting to see how many players scored par or better last year, as this list stops at 10. Tiger Woods, winner from last year did, but he isn’t here this week. Lingmerth, Maggert both T2nd, Ryan Palmer T5th, Ben Crane, Brandt Snedeker and Mark Leishman all came T8th. Jimmy Walker and Brendon De Jonge came T15th and David Hearn came T26th. Obviously the ones shooting the best score will always be near the top, but if their odds are big this year then you can’t ignore a player who has happy memories around one of the most testing courses on the Tour…!!!


What the stats do say is that you need a great ball striker and shot maker, so this will cancel out a few of the ‘smash n grab’ merchants who just boom the ball out there. The positioning of the golf ball from tee to green is of higher importance here than at most other tracks elsewhere on the Tour. So with this in mind…


Jimmy Walker is a player who currently is having a great time of it on the PGA Tour and to prove it he is sat at No.1 in the FedEx rankings at the moment. He has 5 top 10 finishes to his name, and a whole host of stats that say he can do well around here. Sits at Number 1 for Birdie Average, number 2 for Par Breakers and although only 35th in GIR if he starts to pepper the greens this week then his putting stats make take care of the rest…

Ryan Palmer is one of the players that I would stay with for the whole year unless his leg fell off or something like that. But he may well fit the profile of a player who could play well around here. Sits at 9th in GIR, 10TH for Total Driving and ranks 2nd for Ball Striking for the year, which is good golf. Is one of the 10 players to shoot Par or Better last year, he finished up T5th last year at -10 for his troubles. He is having a better season now than last year and so any improvement on his last visit should be profitable…

Matt Every is another who I have followed now and again over the past couple of years and I return to him now whilst he currently sits at 10th in the FedEx rankings. Ranks No.1 for Strokes Gained Putting, 4th in Overall Scoring Average for the year and a whole host of other stats that say his putting is in rude form. His Approach shots could be better but if he hits the green in the right areas then his putting will do the rest. My only concern is with him pulling out of last week’s comp due to illness, but if it was only ‘man flu’ then he’ll be over it by Thursday…

Chris Stroud finished T12th on -8 back in 2010 and did exactly the same the following year in 2011 and makes his 5th appearance here at Sawgrass. Another one who is good with the putter, aren’t they all really, he sits at 6th in Scoring Average, 2nd for Eagles made, 6th for Scrambling and 2nd on the list in 3 Putt Avoidance. He has missed the last two tournament cuts, down really to not finding his driving boots – his driving accuracy at Wells Fargo was at 42%. Gets that right then I think he has a chance…


Jimmy Walker @ 50/1…
Ryan Palmer @ 80/1…
Matt Every @ 100/1…
Chris Stroud @ 125/1…

All done in the usual £2.5 e/w… PadPow pays ¼ odds top 6…

 

Cracking write up as usual Red!!

Jordan Spieth 30/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Louis Oosthuizen 80/1
Brendon De Jonge 110/1
Geoff Ogilvy 150/1

Goodluck everyone!

 

Great write up and one you mention catches my eye at a huge price. Swede DAVID LINGMERTH 300-1 did fantastically well here last year. He lives a seven iron from the first tee and practises on the course with great regularity. At those odds I am compelled to have a dabble. He is big mates with another local JONAS BLIXT and he could be worth a punt also at odds around 100-1, its only a matter of time before he bags a biggie!
I have also had a punt On IAN POULTER 66-1 as I really feel that stadium golf should bring out the best in him. Poulter definitely has the game to win a big one and one of these days I am sure he will put four rounds together.

Good luck with your punts fellas!

 

Nice one red

After 2 minutes research and having entered all the mathematical formulae into the database using the contradictory paradox theory on random analysis I have come to the conclusion that........it's bloody hard to pick who's going to win this one

Graham DeLaet 66/1 - is T4 for top 10 finishes this season, is number 1 in Greens In Regulation and having placed T25 here last year can build on that experience now he has found more consistency to his game. If he get's his short game in action I think we can expect another good placing for the young Canuck. Plagued by injury in recent year's and having got back in 2012 with a medical exemption he is now showing the world of his capabilities and has gained the confidence to be a force in any tournament. Fair Price.

Harris English 66/1 - Really steady most of the time, I hope he can get off to a good start which will give him the confidence I feel he look's for in a tournament in order to do well. 3rd in GIR and with 6 T10 finishes this year he also boasts a top 5 scoring AVG and if he puts that into 4 day's play he will be thereabouts on Sunday and can improve from his 33rd placing here last year. Solid each way claims.

Matt Kuchar 18/1 - boasts the lowest scoring AVG on tour and the most T10 placing's, no surprise there then, but he also boasts being a past champion here in 2012 and a visit here is sure to fill him with good thoughts and feelings about the course and I'm sure he will have a good week. An even bigger incentive to this is that Koooooch can go to the top of the pile with a W here and overtake Tiger by becoming world number 1 if Scott, Stenson and Bubba fail to fire and he wins and if that can't motivate him then I don't know what will. Sure to go well.

Once again, good stuff red and best of luck fellas

 

Smokin - De Jonge was one of the players I considered for my picks so good luck with him pal...

Stick - Lingmirth was also one I considered as well, and had I known that he lived right next to it, and so more than likely plays this course then I may have well gone with him also... Can the stickler hit back-to-back 300/1 shots...

Humans - DeLaet is one of the players that I keep coming back to this year and I think that he will win a few tournaments soon, as he's bloomin good enough...!!!


Good luck all as usual, and lets hope some of us have a chance come Sunday night...

 

Just lifted out of the PGA Tour web site


Matt Kuchar is the most recent PLAYERS champion at TPC Sawgrass this week, and PGATOUR.COM's fantasy gamers seem confident that Kuchar can repeat his success. Kuchar, who won THE PLAYERS in 2012, was the most-selected player in PGATOUR.COM's fantasy game, with 56.4 percent of fantasy gamers putting him in their four-man lineup.

Kuchar is on quite the hot streak. He has finished in the top five in his past four starts, culminating with a victory at the RBC Heritage. Jordan Spieth, who's making his PLAYERS debut, was selected by 32.1 percent of gamers, followed by Rory McIlroy (28.4 percent).

Here are the 10 most-picked players in the PGATOUR.COM fantasy game.

No. Name Percentage
1 Matt Kuchar 56.37%
2 Jordan Spieth 32.09%
3 Rory McIlroy 28.35%
4 Sergio Garcia 27.38%
5 Bubba Watson 26.18%
6 Jim Furyk 25.80%
7 Adam Scott 25.61%
8 Luke Donald 22.75%
9 Zach Johnson 18.25%
10 Dustin Johnson 13.78%


Not in our list he isn't...!!! Pfft, all those fantasy picks going for the top names, where's the fun in that...!!! Smokin' is the only one of us that has a selection in the list with Jordan Spieth, good luck pal, we wont hold it against you pal...

 

Matsayuma 80/1

I've not had much time to look. Hideki looked a big price at first glance..

 

Jeff - I was oh so close to selecting Hideki..i have backed him many times. He is going to be a great!

Awww Truck It! Whats another fiver lol..£2.50 e/w on laddies at 100/1..come on Hideki

 

Ogilvy was +5 thru 5...and now level thru 13..

 

and now -3 thru 17

why such an awful start Geoff!!

 

I think he was only +4 through 5, and again +4 through 8. But still very impressive. It does look like most players are scoring on the back 9, quite a bit of blue with only a few spots of red.

 

Course is playing very soft by the look of the scoring so far.

 

Feck me, Kaymer's shot the pins out with -9

 

Leaderboard after the 1st round...

Leader - M. Kaymer @ -9


T4 - Jordan Spieth, -5
T9 - Brendon de Jonge, -3
T19 - Geoff Ogilvy, -3
T19 - Graham DeLaet, -3
T29 - Hideki Matsuyama, -2
T48 - Ryan Palmer, -1
T48 - David Lingmerth, -1
T48 - Jonas Blixt, -1
T48 - Matt Kuchar, -1
T68 - Keegan Bradley, E
T85 - Harris English, +1
T101 - Ian Poulter, +2
T111 - Jimmy Walker, +3
T123 - Chris Stroud, +4
T123 - Matt Every, +4
T133 - Louis Oosthuizen, +5


Not the best of starts for our picks, though we are only looking at them after the completion of the 1st round... Scoring looks easy as Martin Kaymer has shown, but he isn't the only one to have scored low as 19 players are at -4 or better already. The greens are going to get harder and faster as the tournament makes its way to Sunday nights finish, or so they tell us. But you cant help feeling that you had to make hay while the sun shone yesterday to give yourself a great chance on Sunday... We shall see...

 

Might have a look at laying Westwood for the place. Made headway yesterday with easier greens, I can't see him doing the same when the greens get quicker.

Hideki put in a shift after shooting 4 over through 7 managed to card 2 under. Wind (I say wind, light breeze would probably be more accurate) is supposed to gradually pick up throughout the day today so I'm fairly happy with Hideki going out early.

Anyone following the European Tour event in Madeira? First day abandoned with no play ad start delayed today due to fog, doesn't look likely they'll get much, if any, today. What happens if there are two abandoned days? Is it then a 36 hole tourney or do they play into Monday and Tuesday?

 

Jeff, im not totally sure what they will do... I do know that they had a 3 day/round tournament on the PGA Tour some years ago, I think it was a tornado that swept over the course that stopped the last round from being completed. But this is on day 1...

I can't see them squeezing 2 rounds into 2 days, but they may try and extend it into Monday with 2 rounds being played on Saturday if no play is possible for today. If they cant get the rounds in then im afraid it will be a wash out as most of the players will have pre-booked flights onto their next tournament...

 

the trials and tribulations of being Ogilvy's number 1 fan...

1 minute he was tied 2nd (with my 2nd fav all time player Spieth!) then he dumps 3 shots in 4 holes to drop back to the chasing pack

On the other hand...Just how good is Spieth?! I hope he has learnt from his Masters exploits and see's out the next two days

COME ON JORDAN! (or come 2nd to geoff after he shoots 63 , 63 on the weekend!!!) hahahah

 

Leaderboard after the 2nd round...

Leader - Martin Kaymer @ -12

2 - Jordan Spieth, -11
T9 - Geoff Ogilvy, -5
T25 - HIdeki Matsuyama, -3
T37 - Matt Kuchar, -2
T52 - Jonas Blixt, -1
T52 - Ian Poulter, -1
T52 - Jimmy Walker, -1
T52 - Brendon de Jonge, -1
T52 - Chris Stroud, -1
T64 - Ryan Palmer, E
CUT - Keegan Bradley
CUT - Graham DeLaet
CUT - Harris English
CUT - David Lingmerth
CUT - Louis Oosthuizen
CUT - Matt Every

This lead of Kaymer's will take some pegging back, and not from any of my selections by the looks of it...!!! But at least Smokin is having a good go at it...

 

Good luck Smokin ...as for my selections..HUMBUG!!

 

Saturday is the day the pro's call moving day and every big event causes me to have a bet at the mid point. I never back the leaders but like to have a punt on someone who has had two steady rounds and could possibly have a massive Saturday.
The two I have done this weekend are KEVIN NA and FREDDIE JACOBSEN. Hoping one or both shoots a 65!