Off Topic The Politics Thread (Previously the EU/Eurozone Chat thread)

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Jul 22, 2016.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    As part of the rationalisation of non horse racing related threads, all historic posts on the EU/Eurozone Chat thread have been moved to The "Discuss Anything EXCEPT Horses" Thread.

    For future posts on EU topics and all other political topics this is the place



     
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    Last edited: Jul 25, 2016
  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    #2
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    #3
  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Clearly the journos at the Garuniad know very little about how the European Union works. The 27 remaining members will all have a veto on any deal, so the only way that they could hope to get an offer past the French is if they waited until after François Hollande is kicked out of the Élysée Palace next year and hoped that a more moderate replacement wanted a deal. Then you still have all the Eastern European countries to convince.

    Hollande is desperate for us to trigger Article 50 because his only chance of keeping his job is to play hard ball in the Brexit negotiations as that may go down well with the peasants who got him the job in the first place.

    Cameron was offered a deal that limited access to our benefits system for four years (if we had voted Remain) but once the four years was up it would have been normal service resumed (plus there was no guarantee that the other 27 would have ratified that deal offer anyway). If May was stupid enough to deal with the EU on an offer of suspended free movement for seven years (in other words Norway deal but in seven years), she would be our last female PM because nobody would ever vote for a woman again.
     
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  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I am being baited, so I will bite...

    Bill Cash is right – Boris is living in a fantasy world. There is no realistic prospect of us doing an “access to the single market, no free movement of people” deal. If we get one, half of the EU members will quit the following day and do the same and The Project will be dead.
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    It wasn't a bait QM. I wanted to know what you thought as I thought I could recall you saying that the ideal would be to have control of our borders but remain in the single market, qualifying that with it won't happen. Haven't gone back to look for the post so could have got that wrong. If they did the same deal with everyone it wouldn't make much difference would it?

    The question that springs to mind is:
    That 7 year emergency break has been available all the time we were in (I think I read). Would we have been better off just invoking that than getting out with the same deal?
     
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  7. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Access to the Single Market (including the financial element) plus control of our borders would be the ideal but it is simply unachievable. The EU would settle for a Norway-style agreement because they need our money to fund all the subsidies or the other ‘rich’ countries will have to make up the shortfall.

    The seven year ‘brake’ was available back in 2004 but the Blair government never even looked into it; and, of course, it would have expired in 2011 (or 2014 if we had got it extended to ten years). The rule was only available because of all the new members being admitted to try and stop them all heading west from day one.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Yes I saw that. But if, as you believe, the EU won't last 10 years, our border control would be permanent if we invoked it now
     
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  9. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    We could not invoke it ‘now’, otherwise Cameron would have done so instead of calling a Referendum. It could be argued that this still would not have helped him fulfil his promise of getting immigration down to tens of thousands (a totally impractical promise to make).

    Cameron shot himself straight through the middle of his miniscule brain in the Referendum by leading the Remain campaign himself and concentrating his argument entirely on “it’s the economy stupid” whilst offering no answers to the other three legitimate big questions being posed by the Leave campaign (to which he had no answers).
     
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    But that's what the EU leaders are contemplating now; maybe because the exit looks more threatening than when Cameron was negotiating from within.
     
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  11. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    This is becoming the Ron v QM thread – you should rename it!!!

    Some of the EU leaders realise that if they do not sign us up to some sort of “pay as you go” deal, there is no way that the remaining Big Three (Germany, France and Italy) can bridge the nearly €9bn funding gap that will be left.

    In 2014, every person in the UK paid £4.40 a week for our membership of the EU. I would rather have spent the money on a couple of pints at Wetherspoon!

    Remember when Cameron made that barnstorming speech about how he was NOT going to pay the EU the ‘recalibrated’ contribution of €2bn by 1st December? What actually happened was that the EU split the payment in two and it was quietly paid in 2015, so he was not quite a liar.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh>, or rather Ron Learns Economics
     
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  13. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Another lame excuse to blame Brexit for the calamities in the World economy:

    Brexit heightens global economic risks, says G20

    I hope Philip Hammond flew EasyJet to this shindig (and paid in Sterling not Euros) because after the economic Armageddon we are supposed to be skint (could not fly Ryanair or he would be in Thailand).

    The numbers have been showing recession since the beginning of the year but it has to be the fault of something other than the big economic powers collectively. Phrases involving ‘Rome’, ‘fiddled’ and ‘Nero’ spring to mind...

    What Christine Lagarde was doing there was anybody’s guess – she has to be acquitted by the fixed trial first.

    Brexit has not even happened yet, so look how bad it is going to get... time to start living in the ‘now’ not the future’s market.
     
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  14. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    That is “Rononomics” is it not? No, too many ‘o’s... how about “Ronenomics”?

    You definitely do not want me as your tutor. Economics was not even a subject when I was at school – I would have done it instead of metalwork! It is something to do with pennies, pounds and taking care...
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    BBC Afternoon round-up at18:02
    Here's a late afternoon roundup of Monday's big political stories:

     
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    Last edited: Jul 25, 2016
  16. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    #16
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2016
  17. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    They've all got their heads in the sand with Frau Merkel Swanny, a government statement over the weekend (after an emergency cabinet meeting) stated that asylum seekers posed no greater threat to security than the general population. I really can't get my head around this, they are blatantly ignoring the facts.
     
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  18. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    And now the sick bastards murder an 84 year old priest in his church near Rouen. These people are just savages, nothing more nothing less.
     
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    It's all getting a bit close. Only about 2 hours away
     
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  20. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Comrade Jezza has been in Hull City Centre, preaching to the converted. Undoubtedly crowd estimates will be in the thousands, but I can tell you that there were about a third as many people there as are in this picture (same location); a few hundred. The three local Labour MPs are failed lawyer Karl Turner (replaced Prezza), dodgy postman Alan ‘AJ’ Johnson (not a Jezza fan after the failed Labour IN campaign) and Diana Johnson, whose Momentum-supporting constituency chairman wants her deselected. None of them showed up – obviously Alan was too busy in South London to be in his own constituency. Hull cannot win Labour a General Election unless half of them move to marginal seats.

    The list of warm up acts was quite long. They started at 1pm with some good old protest songs on the theme of Socialism. Apparently, 80 years ago, four Hull men (of the eight that went and fought in the Spanish Civil War) were killed fighting Fascism. According to a couple of the speakers, they are fighting Fascism now in this country. Obviously if we get rid of the Conservatives, we can have a country like Spain – 50 per cent youth unemployment, a stagnant economy but warm sunny weather, three hour lunch breaks followed by an afternoon siesta. The deputy leader of the local loony left City Council, Daren (my parents could not spell they went to school in Hull) Hale, spoke to the masses and also a lady councillor from Islington (Jezza says she speaks seven languages and is an African immigrant) had a rant too.

    So what did Jezza have to say? There were the obvious populist cheers for digs at Sir Philip Green, Tony Blair and the Iraq War, Thatcher destroying the miners (honourable mention for The Beast of Bolsover); and for more money for the NHS, Tuition Fee free education (useless degrees in Media Studies for all), the £10 per hour minimum wage (even if your Starbucks frothy coffee then costs 30 per cent more) and Nationalised everything. According to Jezza, John McDonnell has it all planned out.

    That would be the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, who said, “There's a small group out there that are willing to destroy our party just to remove Jeremy Corbyn.” The ‘small group’ are those seeking to keep him there, you idiot. You propose to nationalise virtually everything by forcing the Bank of England to print money to pay for it. You have no credibility, you dozy Scouser. They should have stuck with Derek Hatton – at least he looked like a Trotskyite!
     
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