The Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

The 2-mile chase championship is contested on the Wednesday of the festival on the old course and there are 12 fences to be jumped. The race was named after the Queen Mother in 1980 (the year of her 80th birthday) in recognition of her support of jumps racing down the years.



The most successful horse in the history of the race is Badsworth Boy, who won 3 titles from 1983-85. There have been numerous dual winners, including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Viking Flagship, Barnbrook Again, Pearlyman, Fortria, Sprinter Sacre and Altior. The most successful jockeys in the race have been Pat Taaffe and Barry Geraghty (5 wins apiece) and the most successful trainers are Tom Dreaper and Nicky Henderson, both with 6 wins.

The 2021 renewal has plenty of "ifs and buts" about it and the ante post market is dominated by the ultra-talented yet ultra-fragile Chacun Pour Soi (best price 6/4). After a workmanlike performance on seasonal debut at Cork he bossed a strong field with aplomb in what was admittedly an unsatisfactory Paddy's Rewards Club Chase with the final fence omitted due to the low sun. Some judges feel he would have won further had the final fence been jumped but if you do fancy him for this I would be looking for the NRNB proviso, given he missed last years festival and has had only 7 career starts (he is now a 9 year-old). Behind Chacun Pour Soi at Christmas were Notebook (20/1) and Put The Kettle On (16/1) - both looking well held. Admittedly the mare does have a real love of Cheltenham and 16/1 available in places looks a reasonable e/w play. One who could be of interest from Ireland at fancy odds in Fakir D'Oudairies at 50/1. They seem to have no idea what trip is his best and he was pulled up in the Savills Chase over Christmas, but he ran an almighty race to be second to Put The Kettle On in last year's Arkle and the Champion Chase could be the race for him this time around.

So what of the English challenge? In terms of the market, it is spearheaded by the reigning champion, Politologue (best price 7/1), a very likeable grey who confirmed his well-being by comfortably taking the Tingle Creek after the much-discussed withdrawal of Altior. His official rating of 169 leaves him 5lbs to find with Chacun Pour Soi but he appears to be in the form of his life and you get the feeling whoever beats him will be champion. Next best at 12/1 come Altior and his Kempton conqueror, Nube Negra. Whilst reams have been written about Altior's defeat at the hands of Cyrname in the Ascot Chase, I am in the camp of those who believe the horse hasn't been the same since then. Whether he is mentally scarred I don't know, but his victory at Newbury did nothing to dispel those feelings and what happened at Kempton had more to do with him being on the decline rather than yard form and I couldn't even back him to place in this. Nube Negra, on the other hand, was mightily impressive at Kempton, both in the way he travelled and jumped. Amazing how easily he came there at the 2nd last and Harry Skelton barely touched him as he coasted to victory. He's never run over fences at Cheltenham but did finish 3rd in a Fred Winter so the course ought to hold no fears for him. According to Dan Skelton he goes straight to Cheltenham and I can't really see him shortening up between now and the race so he makes little ante post value.

The rest don't really look up to this level but extremes of ground could open up possibilities for Waiting Patiently (if it came up heavy) and Rouge Vif (if it were good-soft but more towards good - which is virtually impossible these days). A complete ringer could be Cilaos Emery at 40/1 after his fine 4th in the Champion Hurdle last year but he is another one for whom they seem to be searching for a trip.

Summary: Chacun Pour Soi is probably the only "wow" horse in the field and is the likely winner BUT he is fragile. It would be the stuff of fairytales if Mr. Henderson could get Altior back to his very best to give us the long-awaited battle with Chacun Pour Soi, and you just know Politologue will give it his very best shot at back-to-back victories. Hopefully plenty of them make the race as we have had too many small-field editions of this race. Being a sentimental old fool my heart has gone to Nube Negra and the Skeltons this winter and he's the one I'll be cheering for.

 

Apparently Paddy Power are nrnb but they only go 5/4

 

You don't fancy Nube Negra then Nass?

 

January 24th Update

A new name has entered the upper echelons of the Champion Chase market - Kim Bailey's First Flow was shortened to a best-priced 14/1 by Bet365 but many firms are now 10/1 after his thrilling victory in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot yesterday. After initially allowing Politologue an easy lead, David Bass asked First Flow to close on that rival on the downhill run to Swinley Bottom and he responded with some magnificent leaps. The front two went at it hammer and tongs uphill over the next 4 fences and coming to the second last it looked for a split-second that they might have gone too hard but First Flow quickened away again after the last and Politologue was left to scrap for the minor honours with Waiting Patiently. That was First Flow's sixth consecutive victory over fences and he was rated 156 going into the race. He will be in the upper 160s after that performance and must be considered a contender for the big one on March 17th. One slight concern, however, is that he has only ever run once at Cheltenham and he was pulled up when well behind in the Supreme Novice Hurdle won by Summerville Boy. That might be explained by everything happening rather quickly for him that day but he has handled Carlisle's undulations and he ought to relish the hill, given how strongly he came home yesterday.

Otherwise the market has been pretty quiet, but February will tell us more with the Dublin Chase on Feb 6th (Chacun Pour Soi 4/9 fav against many horses he has already beaten and the biggest dangers possibly from his own yard) and the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury (where Altior is still planned to run).

 

I can't help thinking Defi is in decline. Although he is only 8, he did start off comparatively early as a juvenile hurdler in October 2016 and has been a busy horse. He did have that one horrible season as a 5YO where he flopped in open company over hurdles, at the time I put that down to the typical fate of successful juvenile hurdlers struggling the season after. He was 4th of 5 in the Coral Hurdle, then 7th of 8 in the Irish Champion Hurdle 2018. The following November he finished last of 5 on chase debut at Cheltenham and that was the last time he went 3 races without winning. Testament to his talent and longevity at the top table really. His last 3 runs he looks to me like a horse who is past the peak of his powers. I also think Barry Geraghty got the best out of him, not sure he goes quite so well for Dickie?

 

First Flow raised 10lbs to 166 after his Ascot success. That puts him officially 8lbs below Chacun Pour Soi on official ratings but I'm not sure when we last saw CPS run anywhere close to that - possibly at last year's Dublin Racing Festival when he beat Min 4 lengths, certainly not when beating Notebook last time out. In fact the assessor raised both CPS and Notebook for their last runs by assuming Put The Kettle on had run to her mark of 155. Questionable with the omitted fence.