The Run In, 2019 Relegation Edition

Discussion in 'Southampton' started by Schad, Feb 13, 2019 at 8:40 PM.

  1. Schad

    Schad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2011
    Messages:
    12,173
    Likes Received:
    4,742
    So, it's that time of year again. Not just the time of year where we're staring ominously at the drop line, but the time when weather conspires to give me a day off work, so I spend part of it throwing this together.

    There are seven relegation-threatened teams at the moment, and the threshold for relegation has risen rather steadily. I'm using 38 points as a benchmark, but it could be pretty variable; if Fulham gets cut loose and another team falls off, it could be lower, but the possibility also remains that it gets bumped up, as most of the teams in the mini-league have been getting results in recent weeks.

    As always, the numbers are the average seasonal points total of their opponents: the PL average is 1.38 points per match (up over last year, actually...fewer draws!), so anything above that represents a harder-than-average schedule.

    I've added a new metric: Form Since Ralph. This is basically just the form of every side in the 11 matches since Hasenhuttl took over.


    Crystal Palace - 6 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.39.
    Average opponent away: 1.40.
    Average opponent overall: 1.40.
    Games against mini-league: 5 (2 H, 3 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 15 points in 11.

    Palace's schedule is pretty darned average, so their outlook is pretty average: win the winnable games. They have been in good form, and three wins and a couple draws is their target, and home matches against shaky Brighton and doomed Huddersfield may well prove pivotal there.


    Brighton - 6 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.17.
    Average opponent away: 1.65.
    Average opponent overall: 1.41.
    Games against mini-league: 5 (4 H, 1 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 6 in 11.

    Brighton has the sort of schedule you would want in this position: their away matches are brutally difficult, but they have plenty of matches at home from which to fashion three wins. And on the season, their home record is actually quite good: the best of the mini-league, in fact. Losing to Burnley didn't help matters, and their overall form is awful, but they have every chance to dig themselves out. No matter the outcome, those home matches against the other strugglers will play an outsized role in the home stretch.


    Burnley - 7 home, 5 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.63.
    Average opponent away: 1.57.
    Average opponent overall: 1.61.
    Games against mini-league: 3 (2 H, 1 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 18 in 11.

    Burnley's in good form, but that owes in no small part to an easier schedule. They have gotten the job done against the mini-league since Christmas (10 points in 4 such matches), but the downside is that their remaining schedule is utterly brutal. Upcoming matches against Newcastle and Palace could be pivotal; fail to win those, it will require some Dychean underdog magic to keep their heads above water. That their goal differential is already worse than some of the other contenders doesn't help.


    Newcastle - 6 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.19.
    Average opponent away: 1.23.
    Average opponent overall: 1.21
    Games against mini-league: 6 (4 H, 2 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 12 in 11.

    You'd have to think that Newcastle has every chance of finishing atop the mini-league. There are plenty of six-pointers on the docket, and they have been quite good in such games to date: 3 wins, 4 draws and a single loss in eight. With a home match against Huddersfield next, they are in good stead to establish a bit of a cushion, and likely to maintain it.


    Cardiff - 6 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.56.
    Average opponent away: 1.44.
    Average opponent overall: 1.50.
    Games against mini-league: 4 (1H, 3 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 14 in 11.

    Cardiff's schedule is difficult: a steady procession of midtable sides at home, an alternation between top sides and bottom feeders away. Given that they have just one win against the top half, that's tough sledding. If not for two gifted wins against us, you'd have to think they would be down, but our generosity gives them a fighting chance.


    Southampton - 6 home, 6 away. 1.17 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.44.
    Average opponent away: 1.43.
    Average opponent overall: 1.44.
    Games against mini-league: 4 (2 H, 2 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 15 in 11.

    Our schedule isn't the toughest, but neither is it favourable. The relative lack of matches against the bottom eight might almost be a relief, however, given our mediocre record in such fixtures: 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses means that we've been barely better against poor teams than against the league as a whole. Four wins and a couple draws is the target; with Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd among our final twelve, that means either results against big clubs, or a level of dominance against the rest that we haven't demonstrated to date. Eep.


    Fulham - 6 home, 6 away. 1.75 points/match needed.
    Average opponent home: 1.62.
    Average opponent away: 1.27.
    Average opponent overall: 1.47
    Games against mini-league: 3 (2 H, 1 A)
    Form Since Ralph: 8 in 11.

    Fulham is very, very close to being inked in on the Championship schedule. Theirs is an incredibly tall task against fairly difficult opposition; anything less than wins in their next two against West Ham and ourselves and you would have to imagine that their race is run. The good news? Once relegated, they won't be on the schedule of most of our competitors.


    Huddersfield - 2.25 points/match needed.

    Not even bothering with anything else. A team that has taken just 1 point in 11 matches and gotten outscored 22-4 for their troubles is not going to play the final third of the season like a title contender. Huddersfield is so very, very down.
     
    #1
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2019 at 8:51 PM
  2. ......loading......

    ......loading...... Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2012
    Messages:
    4,616
    Likes Received:
    2,162
    I just liked this... but I really don't like it!
     
    #2
    RSS likes this.
  3. VVD

    VVD Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2011
    Messages:
    5,103
    Likes Received:
    1,971
  4. ----HistoryRepeating----

    ----HistoryRepeating---- Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2011
    Messages:
    16,149
    Likes Received:
    5,683
    Good effort Schad.
     
    #4
    RSS likes this.
  5. RSS

    RSS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 25, 2011
    Messages:
    6,291
    Likes Received:
    2,199
    Things can change so quickly. It wasn’t so long ago that we had a 5 point cushion and some favourable upcoming fixtures...which we duely ****ed up and now everything is looking extremely uncomfortable again.
     
    #5
  6. Libby

    Libby Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2011
    Messages:
    42,321
    Likes Received:
    31,550
    Brighton or Burnley for me.
     
    #6
  7. fatletiss

    fatletiss Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2011
    Messages:
    49,577
    Likes Received:
    26,462
    I remember the days when I’d look at the fixture list to see who we had in April/May.... I used to say “win three games in May and we’ll stay up”

    It’s almost like that again now.
     
    #7
  8. The Ides of March

    The Ides of March Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    1,775
    In spirit, the bottom half of the PL table starts with Wolves as they are nearer the relegation zone in terms of points than they are to Spurs in 3rd. Under Koeman in which SFC finished 6th, I think SFC I count the losses against teams that finished below them on the fingers of one hand. On the other hand, points won against teams that finished ahead of SFC that season can equally be measured on the fingers of one hand. The moral - win as many matches as possible against teams the "lower half."
     
    #8
  9. saintkitch

    saintkitch Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2011
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    647
    When Ralph joined i thought we would stay up easily, I now think we are dead cert's to get relegated. God knows what I will think at easter.
     
    #9
  10. ----HistoryRepeating----

    ----HistoryRepeating---- Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2011
    Messages:
    16,149
    Likes Received:
    5,683
    Its the Palace round of fixtures that has shaken me. We went from confident capable's been followed by dead wood to......in the mix up to our necks & being over taken by the luck brigade.
     
    #10

  11. St Badger

    St Badger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2014
    Messages:
    4,047
    Likes Received:
    3,471
    Just stay away from, nails, hammers and pieces of wood in the shape of a cross.
     
    #11
  12. The Ides of March

    The Ides of March Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    1,775
    A resurrection?
     
    #12
    Libby, Archers Road and saintkitch like this.
  13. St Badger

    St Badger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2014
    Messages:
    4,047
    Likes Received:
    3,471
    So. Whatya saying? :bandit:
     
    #13
  14. The Ides of March

    The Ides of March Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    1,775
    If it is that desperate, take a look at the first three rounds of County Cricket fixtures.
     
    #14
  15. Black

    Black Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,715
    Likes Received:
    4,277
    Can't we just say two teams relegated this year instead of three? Think everyone would be happy with that.
     
    #15
  16. fran-MLs little camera

    fran-MLs little camera Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    64,261
    Likes Received:
    17,678
    Totally agree....every year there are usually two clubs adrift and one space threatening the peace of mind of a few other teams. Only two relegated would do much for the mental well being of thousands of fans. The fact that only two could get promoted would also give peace of mind to Championship teams....no nasty play offs. Can't see a problem with that:rolleyes:
     
    #16
    Black likes this.
  17. ChilcoSaint

    ChilcoSaint Lives in a Chilcohüttl
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2011
    Messages:
    20,946
    Likes Received:
    10,595
    I would dispense with the whole stredsful business of promotion and relegation altogether...
     
    #17
  18. Black

    Black Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,715
    Likes Received:
    4,277
    We could go one step further and remove the idea of winning and losing. If we took the goal posts away and every game finished 0-0, I'd be pretty content with that.
     
    #18
    ChilcoSaint likes this.
  19. ChilcoSaint

    ChilcoSaint Lives in a Chilcohüttl
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2011
    Messages:
    20,946
    Likes Received:
    10,595
    We could just send our best players out for a keepy-uppy competition.
     
    #19
    Black likes this.
  20. RSS

    RSS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 25, 2011
    Messages:
    6,291
    Likes Received:
    2,199
    Not sure being at the bottom of the keepy-uppy league would be any more fun.
     
    #20
    ChilcoSaint likes this.

Share This Page