From the Athletic Trying to make sense of the Championship: Constant surprises and bad predictions please log in to view this image By Nancy Frostick, Elias Burke and more 8h ago 8 The Championship is now 21 games deep and has taken place at a breakneck pace — for context, 17 games had been played by November 14 last season and it’s been as chaotic as you’d expect in the division that throws up a surprise or two every weekend. To try to make sense of the past three months, our writers got together to discuss the magic and madness of the Championship. Describe the Championship so far in two sentences… Michael Bailey: I can do it in three words — free for all. Richard Sutcliffe: Two words will do. Joyously unpredictable. Elias Burke: Unpredictable and very, very fun. The intensity had started to rear its ugly head with a noticeable drop in quality, so the break has arrived at the right time. Philip Buckingham: As mad as a box of frogs. If not madder. Andy Jones: Total chaos. It is survival of the fittest out there. Nancy Frostick: Great for the neutral, hell if your team gets swept up in the madness. Craig Chisnall: Pleasingly competitive. The quality may be down but that helps the competition for the first time in years. What has surprised you this season? Chisnall: Burnley — I didn’t envisage Vincent Kompany having such an impact at Turf Moor. They’ve spent their cash wisely and look a good side. I do wonder if more clubs will take Sheffield United’s approach against them in their 5-2 win. They couldn’t handle the physicality that day. And hat tip to John Eustace, doing a wonderful job amid the chaos at Birmingham. Frostick: How close everything is. There is no runaway team this season or anyone seriously cut adrift at the bottom just yet — it makes for a more interesting division than in recent years. Jones: I mean I think we all thought Rob Edwards was at the start of a long-term reign at Watford right? Burnley cap off, the struggles of West Brom and Middlesbrough show the volatility of the league. Both were being tipped as strong promotion contenders. They’ve been nowhere near that. Sutcliffe: The quality of the teams near the bottom of the division. In four of the past five seasons, the team going down in 22nd place has collected just 37, 43, 40 and 41 points. This year, expect a team to go down with 50 or even 51 points. Bailey: It struck me just how vast the quality gap is between the top two divisions now and I absolutely include Norwich’s performances in that, too. Buckingham: Another shout here for Burnley. I’m struggling to think of a greater stylistic shift within a club working so soon after it was implemented. A team that used to happily see opponents have possession now hogs the ball like Gollum does a ring. What pre-season prediction have you got wildly wrong? Sutcliffe: That Huddersfield Town’s Jack Rudoni was the “player to watch” in the EFL. Not only are Town bottom, but their summer signing has no goals in 20 appearances. Buckingham: Middlesbrough to go up, purely because of Chris Wilder. What felt like a perfect fit did not take long to unravel and a parting had begun to feel inevitable long before it came in October. Middlesbrough have been left with it all to do in the second half of the season, while Wilder no longer looks like the catch he once did. please log in to view this image Wilder was sacked by Middlesbrough in October (Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images) Burke: That West Brom would fight for promotion this season. Instead, they are hovering above the relegation zone. But given their resurgence under Carlos Corberan, there’s a chance this could still come off. Bailey: I also backed Middlesbrough for promotion. That has looked like a rubbish suggestion all season but they look better now under Michael Carrick. I wouldn’t put it past them to finish above Norwich come the end of the season. Frostick: Sorry to Eustace, who I predicted to be the most under-pressure manager in the league. Almost a dozen other managers have already moved on from Championship clubs and Birmingham are having a decent start to the season, as explored in a recent piece by Gregg Evans. Who has been the standout player so far? Jones: I’m going to go with Blackpool’s Jerry Yates. In a team that has been struggling this season, the striker has nine goals and has been a shining light for Michael Appleton’s side. Always a threat, a well-deserved Player of the Month for October illustrates his quality is being recognised. Sutcliffe: Viktor Gyokeres. A threat against any defence and someone whose goals could inspire Coventry to an unlikely play-offs place, providing they hold on to the Swede in January. Chisnall: Adam Wharton at Blackburn was outstanding against Blackpool in midfield. One of the best performances by a young player I’ve seen in a long time. Burke: Ben Brereton-Diaz. Blackburn Rovers would not be in the Championship’s top three without the Chile international’s goals. If there were a Most Valuable Player award for the first half of the season, measuring a player’s value to a team as well as their contribution, it would go to him, Coventry striker Gyokeres or Blackpool’s Yates. Bailey: From a Norwich perspective, it’s been brilliant to see Josh Sargent’s progress this season. Away from that, I’ve seen great contributions from Anel Ahmedhodzic at Sheffield United and Alex Scott at Bristol City. Burnley’s Anass Zaroury has also caught my eye. Buckingham: Jack Clarke. The Sunderland winger is top of assists in the Championship and among his four goals was the stunning team effort in a 3-0 win away to Reading. He’s piecing his career back together after a miserable time at Tottenham, becoming increasingly influential for a young Sunderland team. Frostick: Carlton Morris is having a cracking season since joining Luton, with eight goals in the league so far. He always looked a threat and was interesting to watch at former club Barnsley but seems to have come alive playing in front of home fans at Kenilworth Road. A smart bit of business — to be expected of Luton — and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up under a new manager after the World Cup. Your new choices for the two automatic promotion spots? Chisnall: Burnley and Watford. Frostick: A bit boring as it’s the current top two, but Burnley and Sheffield United. Buckingham: Sheffield United and Watford. The latter have been poor for large parts of this season and are still in striking distance. Sutcliffe: Sheffield United and Burnley. Bailey: It will be two from Sheffield United, Burnley and Watford. Burke: Burnley and Watford, too. Jones: Burnley and Sheffield United look well-equipped to stay where they are. Watford’s resurgence under Slaven Bilic makes them the best placed to challenge. And the three to go down? Bailey: I’m struggling to see beyond the current bottom three of Wigan, Blackpool and Huddersfield. I’m sure Mark Fotheringham will continue to be fun at Huddersfield, though. Sutcliffe: Wigan Athletic, Hull City and Huddersfield. Burke: Huddersfield, Blackpool, Hull City. Buckingham: Huddersfield Town, Wigan Athletic and Blackpool. Jones: This is much more tricky because of how bunched up the league is. One bad run and most sides will be looking over their shoulder. It may well end up being Huddersfield, Wigan and Blackpool but I wouldn’t write any of them off. I’d be concerned if I was a Hull City fan but you’d expect them to be busy in January to try to sort themselves out. Frostick: Huddersfield, Blackpool and Wigan, but it could be a close one for Hull City. Chisnall: Huddersfield, Hull and, it pains me to say, Blackpool. Favourite game so far? Chisnall: Blackpool 4 Preston 2. Did. Not. See. That. Coming. Frostick: Sheffield United 3-3 Blackpool. Six goals, four red cards, petty bookings and a penalty miss. Perfection. Jones: As good as Burnley’s 3-0 victory over arch-rivals Blackburn was, their 3-2 victory over Rotherham had absolutely everything. There are not many moments that can compare to scoring a winner in the 10th minute of added-on time… when injury time started with Burnley being 2-1 down. Only Sheffield United’s dramatic 3-3 draw with Blackpool runs it close. Buckingham: Sheffield United and Burnley stick in the mind — the current top two trading punches throughout before the hosts came away 5-2 winners. Those might turn out to be three big points come May. Sutcliffe: Sheffield United 3 Blackpool 3. An incredible game that had everything. Breathless stuff from start to finish. Burke: From a West Brom perspective, Saturday’s 2-0 win over Stoke City was highly satisfying. To beat a Midlands rival comfortably to round off an encouraging start for the new head coach was the ideal way to part for the World Cup break. If you are yet to see it, Brandon Thomas-Asante’s second-half overhead kick is a goal-of-the-season contender. Who will Premier League teams be looking at in January? Frostick: Tommy Conway will surely have popped up in a few scouting reports for Premier League teams after a great season, although he is still young and might benefit from staying at Bristol City until the summer. Looking at a more established player, Ilias Chair has been a standout creative presence at QPR for some time and is heading to the World Cup with Morocco, so has the chance to show he can take that next step. Sutcliffe: Gyokeres may feature in a few conversations but, to me, Sheffield United’s Iliman Ndiaye would be a worthy addition to many top-flight squads. Into the final 18 months of his contract and United needing Premier League status to be able to afford to hold on to such a special talent, the Senegal international could attract plenty of interest. And especially if he’s made an impact at the World Cup. Burke: With six months remaining on his contract, Brereton-Diaz is the obvious bet. Buckingham: Brereton Diaz will be of serious interest, though he and Blackburn might think it best to wait until the summer. Gyokeres is another that will be on radars. At 24, he’s starting to look a real force. Jones: If clubs were looking to be ahead of the game, Burnley’s Zaroury looks a potential superstar in the making. After arriving this summer, he has not been fazed by the physicality of the division and looks to have all the tools to succeed in England… and those magic wands they call his two feet are spell-binding. Chisnall: Gyokeres — he’s got the lot. Everton were linked in the summer and he’d have been a better bet than wasting £20million ($23.7m) on Neal Maupay.
Interesting that most think Watford will be in the top three, equally interesting that no Watford players are deemed as likely be stolen in the next transfer window
currently predicted third by the super computer: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
