The Stats Thread

Discussion in 'Norwich City' started by DUNCAN DONUTS, Dec 18, 2020.

  1. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    I suspect the 'treatment table' is more bed-like than table-like :p
     
    #181
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  2. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    Can anybody dig up the most amount of clean sheets we have had in a season? I'm wondering if we stand a chance to better it this year.
     
    #182
  3. Golden Eadie 2

    Golden Eadie 2 Well-Known Member

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    According to David Freezer in the Pink it is twenty in '74/'75, and 36 is the fewest number of goals conceded, in '71/'72. Records could be set in a number of areas this season it seems.
     
    #183
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  4. robbieBB

    robbieBB Well-Known Member

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    Judging by some of the modern novels my wife reads, there are some things that happen on tables that I'll wager never happen on Colney treatment tables .............
     
    #184
  5. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    You should call this idea fifty shades of yellow and green
     
    #185
  6. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    I think we are on fifteen so far this season? To get to twenty-one clean sheets from here feels like a tall order.

    Keeping goals against under 36 feels doable and would be fantastic.
     
    #186
  7. DUNCAN DONUTS

    DUNCAN DONUTS SOCIAL JUSTICE WARRIOR

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    5 clean sheets in our last 7 straight wins
     
    #187
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  8. Golden Eadie 2

    Golden Eadie 2 Well-Known Member

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    I think those records Freezer came up with concern our performance in the second tier only, so not sure if they are outright records. 94 points is also another record that could be challenged.
     
    #188
  9. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    I'm a pessimist today!
     
    #189
  10. DUNCAN DONUTS

    DUNCAN DONUTS SOCIAL JUSTICE WARRIOR

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    We are good at the back
     
    #190

  11. Hairy Mary Quite Canary

    Hairy Mary Quite Canary Well-Known Member

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    Who would have thought after the last few seasons <cheers>
     
    #191
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  12. robbieBB

    robbieBB Well-Known Member

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    Here is the latest Championship scatter graphic from Experimental 3:6:1:

    scatter_3-21.png

    and here, for comparison, is the equivalent from March 2019:

    scatter_3-19.png

    The lines dividing the four sectors in each graphic are the median values for the x and y axes. Ben Mayhew's summary in both cases, very good in attack, close to average in defence.
     
    #192
  13. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    I don’t know how they’re calculating the median, because while it’s difficult to tell it only looks like ten teams below the line.

    It’s falsified, though, because the defences are significantly stronger this season versus 18/19. We were 1.3 then, 1.1 now.

    I don’t know how they measure “1.1” either. We’ve conceded (joint) fewest. So it’s all very dubious to me.
     
    #193
  14. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I was trying to work that out unless Krul's/ McGovern's saves mean that the defense looks better because there are less goals scored due to good keeping?
     
    #194
  15. Farked19

    Farked19 Well-Known Member

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    Isn't it a stat thing that you can gave fewer teams on one side of a line? It just means that a few teams are a long way above average and are balanced by more being just below. Rather like GD where a couple of teams have big positives and larger numbers smaller negatives.
     
    #195
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  16. robbieBB

    robbieBB Well-Known Member

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    Spot the odd one out (hint: it's not Swansea ;)):

    Rankings are from football xg. (xG ranking high to low; xGa ranking low to high; Net xG ranking high to low)

    Screenshot 2021-03-23 at 12.31.47.png
     
    #196
  17. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    Luton?
     
    #197
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  18. robbieBB

    robbieBB Well-Known Member

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    Close! Literally! <laugh>
     
    #198
  19. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    The trouble is Robbie this is still unconvincing. When our xGa is close to 50% higher than actually conceded, it suggests maybe the xGa stat is not quite working. Swansea and Watford are also miles off their xGa.

    And you have told us before that you do not believe this is poor finishing - right? Because otherwise you would not argue when we point to our xG being six goals higher than our actual goals scored that it is nothing to do with poor finishing...

    It’s all a bit inconsistent. Which really just highlights why xG and xGa are massively flawed and, while interesting, don’t really tell us something concrete.

    Especially as they’re also vulnerable to manipulation - for example, recently you have often changed how you use the xGa stat by arguing that one big chance xG is worth more than lots of little xG chances (even though that would defeat the object of having xG percentages as if they are correct than 75% made up of multiple small chances should have exactly the same odds of a goal as one shot with a 75% chance...)

    But I can also manipulate the xGa stats for Norwich across matches even if we swallow the idea of xGa being accurate - for example, over the last six matches our average xGa per match is 0.867. That would put us top of your table by a massive margin on a seasonal basis.

    But that’s only recent form you say? Well Ok, let’s take our last 15 matches. Well our xGa for that period 0.872 - so only a fraction higher. So our excellent defensive form has actually been for an extended period of time!

    But that’s less than half the season I hear you say - Rob you’re picking the best periods to show us in a better light. Well ok, let’s go back 20 matches then. Ah! Well now we are talking - our xGa has shot up to 0.97 per match! But hang on a second... That would still see us second in the defensive table... So still pretty good.

    Even if you back 25 matches we are still almost exactly 1 goal xGa a game. If you want to get clever and look at only our possible opponents next year, in that same period of xGa is 1.06 against top six teams.

    The point being we all knew our form at the start of this season was shaky and our defence wasn’t great, but since January in particular it has really clicked. Stats shouldn’t be looked at in a vacuum, they should always be contextualised, their flaws acknowledged. Lies, damn lies and football stats.
     
    #199
  20. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    How strong is our defence?

    If you look at the top five leagues in Europe, all pro tiers, across the last 20 matches played only Padova in the Italian third tier has conceded fewer goals than the ten we have conceded (they have conceded nine). Lille and Man City tie for third place having conceded eleven in their last 20 matches.

    If you look at the last 15 matches, we are top (seven conceded), jointly with Padova and Lille.

    That roughly coincides with Giannoulis joining.
     
    #200

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