The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

I’d love to say I’d doubled them up but I didn’t!! Seemed overpriced to me on course form.

 

Oh and it’s not pronounced South Well.

 

On fire sand rat boy

 

It’s back again tomorrow!! A couple of selections in the morning.

 

1.45 Makambe

- stable 3 winners from 4 runners last 14 days

- Makambe's worst results for connections in 8 runs were 4th two times which underlines how reliable this horse performs

- goes well at Southwell

 

2.55 Seven Clans

Before his 2nd at this track last time out SaveTheHumans had posted:

"Seven Clans 15/2 - Southwell 4.15

Ran a cracker on penultimate start here and is still feasibly treated due to the horses huge inconsistency in form. Tends to throw in a wobbly before a good run and then rinse repeat. I am hoping after his no show lto that he can get his head back to the front here for the Tutty clan."

Worth another bet.What do you think ?

 

Is now a Non Runner LG. Was only raised 1lb from the last day, but, is such an inconsistent type, it would be hard to be ever confident of him winning. Blowing Dixie is the likeliest winner and I think there are 2 others in it who are a better class of horse to the ones Seven Clans faced last time out. No doubt there is a race for him soon but it cost a lot to follow him until he bags it.

 

12:40 First Excel @ 8/1

First Excel is a course regular with 13 runs, 3 wins and 4 places, so on that alone he is probably well worth a look today. However, if you look at his course record more closely it gets even more interesting.

Over course and distance he is 9,3,4 whilst over other trips he is 4,0,0.

Last time out he was over the mile, and they replaced his usual blinkers with cheekpieces, and he ran atrociously. As a result the handicapper has reduced his mark to 60, despite running in the places over course and distance this winter off a mark of 63! Sometimes the handicapper does relent.

The blinkers go back on, and with two non runners drawn low, his stall of 8 isn't as high as it might have been. I expect he will track the early pace three from the rail and then kick on down the straight. Today he is back in a 0-60, whereas he was being beaten by better rated horses over course and distance this winter.

 

4:05 Princess Harley @ 11/1

Princess Harley is a similar horse to First Excel in that she loves Southwell, her course record is 8,2,4 and importantly over course and distance it is 6,2,3. She like First Excel ran over further last time out and that didn't go to plan fading badly over 1m6f trip.

However, on her penultimate run, when she won over course and distance, her form ties in very closely with Cold Harbour, who is far shorter here, and in my opinion the bookmakers have overreacted to the poor run last time with the price today.

 

Thank you very much for sharing your selections here. Always worth a bet.

 

Very kind. Hopefully a profitable day for all at Southwell.

 

That was very annoying as he had the perfect trip and didn’t pick up. He needs a break now.

 

Isn’t 4f 214 y 5f 14 y? Just asking for a friend btw it’s not an equation.

 

I always thought a furlong was 220 yards.

 

Great shout Nass!

 

Booom. Shout thx very much

 

Cheers. Pays for my petrol to Cheltenham and Fontwell this weekend and then a few meals too!

 

I’m giving Cheltenham a miss this year I’m going to lingers for a couple of days ditto.cheers.

 

Shout

 

It's back again tomorrow!!! Got a few that I like, want to wait until i've got prices in the morning before everyone else ploughs on