The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

3:02

Honey GG and Popple 1pt each at 11/2 and 7/1 BOG

All about course form in this and the sire statistics of their sire is also very good.

 

P/L for Tuesday ?

And I'm intrigued by your sudden (?) enthusiasm for match bets. Experimented with them a few years back, with complete lack of success. That was mostly because I wasn't picking very well, but I also noticed (or so I thought) a built-in drawback, in that when neither horse can finish (say) in the first three, your fate rests entirely on which jockey gives up first.

If you see anything in the 6.50 at Kempton tonight that might pay for a month's pre-lockdown stash of Doritos, can you put it up on the DT ? Off now, to watch the USA regress itself back into the stone age - best wishes to everyone seriously affected by the lockdown.

 

-4pts from the win bets (Accrington Stanley one to wait for next time from a kinder draw).

Match Bets

1:33 - One won, one lost - Returned 1.66 (2pt staked)
Young John Won the bet, unfortunately Global Humour faded 2.2 returned (2pt staked)
Lord of the Glen won his race (brilliant Oisin ride) - 1pt lost

So for the day -5.14 and -8.14 in total

 

I use the match bets a lot over jumps when I am at a race meeting, and I think on the sand it has a potential angle where you don't like one to go on the surface, but as you say it also relies on jockeys riding out a finish. I try to use it where I don't like one that is at the fore of the market, where you are hopeful that other horse in the match is likely to be involved in the finish.

I haven't looked at Kempton, but I have backed Wild Edric purely on stalls and horses profile.

 

Thanks, Nass. Stay safe.

 

you too, and try not to lump on Biden at 1.35

 

A new day, and I should have lumped on Biden at 1.35.

The racing at Southwell today has a few interesting races, and I will start with the 5:05

This race is over six furlongs, the jolly is in stall one and is facing the surface for the first time. He is also carrying ten stone two!! The favourite won nicely at Wolverhampton last time out, but to me he doesn't scream out as being a Southwell horse. He brings the best form into the race, but he has now raced eight times in his juvenile season and it could be that he is close to being over the top.

The one I like is previous course winner Pint Of Bear, who showed nice speed to run two sub 11 second furlongs over five furlongs here last time out. That race impressed me, and he finished strongly despite running at a good speed from the off. They finished in a bunch, but to me he showed enough to suggest that a furlong further and a turn might see him in even better light. He looked tenacious that day, and that can help him here with a penalty to carry.

I had him down as a 5/1 shot so I am pleasantly surprised at getting 13/2 BOG

1pt - Pint Of Bear @ 13/2

 

5:35 - When I saw this race I thought "Finally time for Crosse Fire"

However, you have to watch the races back and the run of Moveonup last time is very impressive, he came with a well timed and patient ride down the inside. The jockey looked like he was confident of him winning, and I thought that if he had switched wide he would have won much more convincingly. He is drawn high here so that should be the case this time

The race will hopefully be set up by Crosse Fire (please don't miss the kick) and it should come down to the closers, with Puchita and Moveonup being the obvious pair to focus on. Puchita holds Moveonup on their meeting earlier in the year, but the latter is a much different proposition now and I expect him to add another win to his page.

Again I am surprised at the market. 10/3 is available and I thought he was a 5/2 shot.

2pt win Moveonup @ 10/3 BOG

 

7:05 Hermocrates @ 9/4

This race looks competitive enough, but the course run of Hermocrates last time really takes the eye. He pulled well clear of the third horse and he finished the race really strongly in a really decent time. If I have read this properly then he holds Beat The Heat on the times of their races by a couple of seconds, and that horse now carries a penalty.

2pt win Hermocrates @ 9/4 BOG

 

5pts staked today. Good luck all.

 

This is pretty much an act of faith, and I can't support it with weights and measures. Ice Age (6.05) is having his first run for Ronald Thompson after leaving Eve Johnson Houghton and, at seven, certainly isn't the horse he was. However, the horse he was was decidedly useful - he raced off 107 in his pomp (81 today) and actually went off second favourite for the prestigious Scurry Handicap at the Curragh in July '18. It also feels very weird to be putting up a horse over 5f here which has won over 7f at Brighton in its day.

On top of that, he never seems to have been regarded as a midwinter horse - over the past four years, he's had the following breaks:
Oct 19 - Jul 20
Sept 18 - Apr 19
Sep 17 - Feb 18
Oct 16 - Apr 17

Why his new trainer has decided to take him down to 5f - over which he's never won - at a track where he's never raced, at a time of year when he usually has a kip, I've no idea. But the markets are treating him cautiously - about 14-1 as I post - and you just wonder if a change of scenery has perked him up. If so, he could pick this lot up and carry them. On the other hand, he's almost certainly turned into a dodgepot. Not the situation to go all-in, but maybe a cautious each-way pop just in case this is his day. Good luck (and to anyone who's lost a job, or is having to duck and dive under lockdown, my very best wishes).

 

Another blank day, very frustrating as the one horse I should have been all over won in Queen Of Kalahari. I think I need a break from betting for a short while.

 

Yeah, sometimes the more thought we put into it, the more confusing it becomes. Occam's razor: “The simplest solution is almost always the best.”

 

I've always had this thing about tight circuits with a short run home. Inside stalls, plenty of pace and track success. Never first up.

I always like the horse's eyes rolling about in a crazed fashion too.

 

Another meeting (Tuesday 8/12) with no 5f races. Racism and sexism are nothing compared to this blatant and disgraceful sprintism.

 

On the upside though Rainer, that part of the world revels in being awash with three mile plodders.

 

4:15 - Samovar 9/2 win/Excessable 10/1 ew. With rev fc.
6:15 - Hong Kong Harry 4/1 win.

Win double on Samovar and Hong Kong Harry.

 

not to mention two and half mile hurdling rogues

 

Samovar and Excessable swapped places in the market but i'll take the win