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The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 4, 2021.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Run over 2 miles on the old course and with 8 hurdles to be jumped, the Champion Hurdle is the show-piece race of day 1 and the most prestigious hurdle race in the world. The role of honour reads like a who's who of National Hunt racing with 5 triple-winners (Hatton's Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq) and multiple dual winners such as Bula, Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon, Comedy Of Errors, Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly and most recently, Buveur D'Air. A splinter from a Newcastle hurdle prevented Buveur D'Air trying to join the triple winner club in 2020 but hopefully he will be fit for the 2021 renewal.

    The market as of 4th Jan 2021 is headed by the reigning champion, Epatante, at around the 9/4 mark. Having looked imperious on her seasonal reappearance at Newcastle, she was surprisingly beaten by Silver Streak in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. She made a mistake at the third-last hurdle and was always struggling to get on terms with Silver Streak thereafter. It is entirely possible she was under the same cloud as Altior (and potentially others in the yard as they had a very quiet Christmas in terms of winners) but I just wonder whether the strong pace set by the winner might have blunted her turn of foot? Her victory in the 2019 Christmas Hurdle was a full 8 seconds slower than Silver Streak's 2020 time and I think the mare is vulnerable with a strong pace. Off a slow pace she has a deadly turn of foot - her winning time for the 2020 Champion Hurdle was the slowest since Katchit in 2008.

    Second in the betting and indeed second in the 2020 race is Sharjah (best price 8/1), who confirmed his well-being over Christmas with his 3rd consecutive victory in what is now called the Matheson Hurdle. Although he doesn't have quite the same turn of foot as Epatante he is a very strong traveller and will be arguably better suited by a stronger pace from the offset. Willie and Patrick Mullins will certainly be looking at all possible options to get their charge past Epatante this time.

    Third best in the market at this stage, at best odds of 12/1, is Silver Streak and I am sure they will set out to make all on him as they did at Kempton. Hopefully the ground will not be too testing as these tactics could set this up to be an absolute belter of a race, particularly as another horse at 12/1, Aspire Tower, also likes to force the pace. Second in last year's Triumph, Aspire Tower led from the start to take the WKD Hurdle at Down Royal and almost repeated the trick at Leopardstown before Sharjah swooped late to take his measure. The disappointment of that race, Saint Roi, is also a best-priced 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle but has found the step up to open Grade 1 company a challenge at this early stage of his career. That same comment can be applied to Abacadabras, widely available at 16/1, and then we have the 2 mares Honeysuckle and Concertista who may well be targeting the mares race instead.

    The one horse who I think is currently overpriced is Tom Symonds' Song For Someone (best price 20/1) who completed a hat-trick of grade 2 wins in the International and could be the one to take advantage of a really strong pace on testing ground. He stays very well and there is really very little between him and Silver Streak - perhaps his longer odds reflect the fact that he may swerve Cheltenham and go for the 2m 4f race at Aintree instead but if you can get on NRNB at those odds then he may well be worth an e/w dabble.

    Buveur D'Air is a similar price to Song For Someone but you'd really want to see him run before forming an opinion.

    In summary - Epatante suddenly does not look the good thing she did after winning at Newcastle and the pace angle makes me think she could be vulnerable with a real end-to-end gallop. This could open up the race for Sharjah and, at potentially very nice odds, Song For Someone if he runs.
     
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Nice post Oddy. Index updated <cheers>
     
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  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Call it blind faith, call it stupidity, call it what you like...

    I am still in the Abacadabras camp. I thought he ran an absolutely brilliant race in the Supreme Hurdle, only to be touched off on the post by a certain Shishkin, and whilst we haven't seen anything near that form this season, I think he is a horse that will relish the spring ground and most importantly he needs a strong pace to chase and for the race to be run to suit.

    I expect we might see him with headgear on, and if they get him to peak for that one day, I think he will go and win the race.

    I don't think we are blessed with many top class hurdlers over the minimum trip, we've seen blips for most of the likely field, and if we see a performance to note at the DRF we could see a massive change in the market.
     
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  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    I do have blind faith. I have a bet on Saldier 25/1 e/w.
     
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  5. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Based on what I have seen from last year up until now, Sharjah would be the most obvious one, if on a going day. They say he can be quite hit and miss, as is self evident. A good strong pace is almsot guaranteed and if he's held closer to the pace this year and has no misfortune, he could be pretty hard to beat.
     
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  6. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Where are the faint hearted trainers of Honeysuckle and Benie Des Dieux? Tragic that , for the only time in National Hunt history , have each of three mares had serious claims to winning a Champion Hurdle- and the trainers of two of them preferred to run in the relatively mediocre Mares Hurdle.
    Shame on you, De Bromhead and Mullins!
    PS. Even the vastly improved other Mullins' mare, Concertista, wouldn't be without an outside chance. She has a fine turn of foot.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 5, 2021
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  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Fully agree Tam - indeed this season more than ever, given the dearth of top two-mile hurdlers around. I guess I don't need to ask your views on the new Mares Chase at the festival, bringing us to 3 "mares only" races?
     
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  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    The counter argument to that is, how many of these top mares would have been retired to stud before they got to their levels that they are showing, had the mares calendar not existed in the way it has?

    The one thing that could be said about the BHA is that they've been very proactive in creating a season for the mares, from the GB Bonus scheme for british bred fillies and mares, through to the big mares races over hurdles and fences at the festival. The season now has a progression for the mares, allowing them to be viable racehorses and giving the public the chance to see top quality mares that might have been retired in previous eras.
     
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  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I'd never thought about it that way Nass, makes sense. But as Annie Power and Epatante have recently proven, there's nothing to stop a good mare winning a Champion Hurdle. Be interesting to see what they do - I guess they will get entries and the decision will be made on the Sunday before.
     
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Call me mad, but I would rather they withdraw the mares allowance, all Championship races off level weights, and then if you've got an awesome mare she has to run to same level as the geldings to win. It might put off mares being declared for them, but it would also stop the quotes like "Epatante would struggle to beat that field off level weights"

    I was talking to a couple of friends the other day, we were discussing that we should try and syndicate a British bred mare. I doubt we would have had that conversation a few years ago about any mare, let alone one bred in Britain.
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Would be an interesting question for Princess - whether the 7lbs mares allowance is justified in a Champion Hurdle - in terms of the difference in physique between mares and geldings. It doesn't seem likely to me, but then again it doesn't seem rational that a few pounds can make a significant difference to a horse weighing half a ton. Fascinating subject. You could. of course, extend the question to the allowance 3YO fillies get in the Arc.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Interesting debate on allowances. This could be extended to WFA and apprentices. There are, of course, good reasons for these allowances and the question is whether the sex allowance is any less deserving. In show jumping the mares get no allowances. If a ladies team got into the football league, would they be given a 2 goal lead?
     
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  13. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    In one sense, the mares’ allowance is academic. I can’t bring to mind any other mare from the past that would have won the Champion Hurdle- with any reasonable weight concession or not.
    We shouldn’t need to applaud family concerns like the Mullins’ and Prices’ for running Dawn Run and Flakey Dove in the Champion. It should be natural for owners and trainers to be enthusiastic and ambitious.
    I just cannot understand why trainers are more concerned about keeping a horse’s winning record ‘intact’ than showing enterprise.
    Also, Soft ground frightens them. Handicaps terrify them. 6 or 7 races a year would kill their poor horses!
    I suppose the biggest laugh of all would be for Honeysuckle, Benie Des Dieux, and Concertista to all run in The Mares Hurdle - and Epatante or ,even better, a different mare, takes the spoils in The Champion.
     
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  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Tam, how many good mares never raced because they were for breeding from only? We now have a very active calendar for mares, we are seeing better quality mares in racing than we saw when Quevega was dominating (Honeysuckle rated 1lb higher than Quevega but much more competitive in the main) and that is meaning that we are seeing more questions on whether mares such as those mentioned on here are good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.

    I think we are in a good position in terms of the mares races, I don't think they take away from the Champion Hurdle or World Hurdle, but instead they add another top quality race to the festival. A position very different to how I saw it five years ago.
     
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  15. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Nass, I take your point but, surely, isn’t it a question of facing up to a challenge and wanting to take on the best? Surely, better quality mares today should increase that incentive, not lessen it.
    I’m not against races for ‘mares only’ but doesn’t the 7lbs weight concession render them redundant, given that concession is supposed to level things out?
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I’d love to know what proportion of runners in the Champion Hurdle were mares in each decade. I’d be surprised if it was statistically different since the mares races have been introduced.

    I think progress has been made in making mares viable as ownership options and for that I think the mares races are very valuable.

    Given that, I think the removal of the mares allowance would make it even better for the Championship races, the best beating the best off levels. I think that would be progress.
     
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  17. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Fair comments, Nass, but let’s see more ambition from owners and trainers.
     
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  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    also it’s worth noting the trip, how many folk were crying out for an intermediate trip for horses like Oscar Whisky. Perhaps because of the intermediate distance you get more a better field of horses.
     
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  19. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    The mare’s allowance was only introduced in the early 1980’s so I would imagine the number of mares running up to this point in the race would be far lower.

    I had no idea about this fact until the other day incidentally when reading it in the old paper. The article stressed the point that had the introduction of the allowance been put on hold for a few years then in all likelihood Dawn Run would have won neither a Champion Hurdle or a CGC. By such decisions is greatness decided, people.
     
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  20. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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