Daily Racing Thread Thursday 3rd. June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jun 2, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
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  2. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    CLOSENESS 11/1 Chelmsford 7:30
    Owner drinks in my local and reckons there is more to come. The yard certainly seem to get more than their share of first time in a handicap winners/ Her best run thus far was on debut over course and distance and its possible that the turf and or going did not suit last time out.
    QUICK WALTZ 100/30 Thirsk 7:15
    Another yard that excels in first time handicappers and this one has been given a very lowly perch to start out from.
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Nice winner for Aidan O'Brien with Point Lonsdale in a 7F maiden yesterday. Dermot Weld had the tipped horse with a first time out 3rd that he was expected to build on but the O'Brien runner started favourite at 7/4 and he absolutely pissed up by five and a half lengths. The son of Australia cost 575,000 Guineas and he is a full brother to Broome. The 2YO was rocketed in as the new 5/2 Fav for the Chesham, quickly usurping New Science from the Appleby stable.

    Today it is a similar scenario, with the fillies getting their turn in a 7F maiden where previous form meets potential in well bred newcomers. Juncture is quite a warm favourite for Ger Lyons at about 5/4 and the daughter of Dark Angel was runner up in a Naas maiden over 6F on debut. The worry I have is that she was beaten five and a half lengths that day and the winner Contarelli Chapel was a flop as 2/7 Fav next time. I couldn't back Juncture at her odds today.

    Dissociate was also second on her debut. Almanzor is her sire and she ran on heavy going that day ending up beaten by half a length. I am not sure if it was a good race but Agartha ran quite well behind Prettiest next time. I prefer the look of her race to Juncture's and she is a better price at 9/4.

    Aidan's runner isn't fancied this time, as Madonnadelrosario, a daughter of Caravaggio, can be backed at 13/2. That would seem a worrying sign for a Caravaggio half sister to The Wow Signal, who won the Coventry in his day.

    Discoveries is a full sister to Alpha Centauri, who was lethal at times in her 3YO career. Third favourite in the betting but the Harrington juveniles have not really got going and the stable are a miserly 3/50 at the moment and I like a bit better than a 6% strike rate when I am backing.

    I was toying with Dissociate but with Aidan's 2YO's winning first time out a few times recently I was swayed to stay at the same well and get odds of 13/2 in a tricky looking race where it would take braver men than me to wade in on the Fav at 5/4.

    1.20 Leopardstown Madonnadelrosario 13/2
     
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  4. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    <laugh> , very good stick , obviously you drink in high places ! best of luck , with the bell trained horse !!!
     
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  5. Mick Malones Mauser

    Mick Malones Mauser Active Member

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    Actually I can verify Sticks story. I met the same owner while out walking my dog,doddery old gal barely able to control her Corgis. Spoke about the pubs re opening but said she can't go in to her local anymore,recently widowed and gets a lot of unwanted attention from blokes looking for tips.(apparently she has quite a few horses in training) husband must have left her a fortune as I don't recall her ever working a day in her life.
     
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  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Discoveries is very weak in the Leopardstown opener. She's doubled in price out to 10/1. The punters are lapping up Juncture, who is now a shade of odds-on but she's not for me at those odds. Dissociate is looking backable at 10/3 now, while my selection is slightly weak but nothing as concerning looking as the Harrington filly.
     
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  7. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    14:35 Ffos Las - Eva's Diva

    (LTO 56-days ago at Taunton over a slightly longer distance and ridden by a young conditional jockey. Don't wish to be harsh and unfair on the youngster, but had Eva's Diva been ridden with a little more restraint, she might have won the race? Today, experienced jockey Kielan Woods gets the ride for the somewhat underrated trainer, David Jeffreys. Selection up a bit to Class 4, but should be well-suited to the distance of just under 2-miles on good (good-to-soft in places ground). Although a very average hurdler, she certainly is well-bred, being by the German sire Getaway out of a Sadler's Wells mare, and is closely-related to that good galloper Unfuwain on the sire's side. 7/1 is the price generally available at time of writing.)

    Phew, after all that sure hope Eva runs a decent race! :emoticon-0112-wonde :emoticon-0100-smile

    Best of luck today to all who have a wager! :emoticon-0167-beer:
     
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  8. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Beautifully bred Quick Waltz has so far faced 32 opponents and beaten 3 of them. Would be delighted if she won.
     
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  9. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Leopardstown
    15,40 Settle For Bay 12/1 e/w
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The money talked with Juncture, who made a decisive move and put the race to bed quickly. Madonnadelrosario was never travelling sweetly enough but did stay on for fifth place with some hope for the future but she won't be one of Aidan's top echelon.

    I thought Discoveries was the one for the future. She was very easy to back today and didn't look like it early on in the race but she stayed on well to come through for fourth place. She looks ready for a mile and when the stable are firing better I'm sure she will win races.

    Today's winner also looks a nice prospect and it is amazing that Aidan's Contarelli Chapel swatted her like a fly last time by 5 and a half lengths, yet was then a huge disappointment at long odds on next time.

    The story was that Contarelli Chapel was showing signs of being in season before her second race, which sort of begs the question as to why they ran her if that were enough to excuse such a poor showing. Interesting to see where they take Contarelli Chapel next.
     
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  11. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Pleased with her good run to finish third. Race rather spoilt by that crazy horse going 20-lengths clear for most of the race. Thought Kielan Woods rode a good race, and gave his mount every chance. Combination Kielan Woods/David Jeffreys have one in the last at Ffos Las with Ayr Of Elegance who won at Plumpton LTO. However, 4/1 is far too short a price for me, considering the horse has a 10 lb. penalty to carry too. Could still win it though! :emoticon-0100-smile

    So, will go for the 16:20 at Ffos Las with Kapsize, who races off the minimum weight for the family team of jockey Sean and trainer Peter Bowen. Has a bit of a squeak in this event, 9/1 best price at time of writing.
     
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  12. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Awful. No more sentimentality with him. He won the Royal Hunt Cup three years ago and has been dragging his feet ever since. No more trusting him.
     
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  13. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Tricky race. I'm on Henri Morgan Parry at 11/1 e/w.
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Bolshoi Ballet's Derrinstown comes under the microscope again today after Lough Derg's poor showing yesterday.

    The 4.50 Leopardstown sees Fernando Vichi running in the Listed Nijinsky Stakes over a mile and a half. The Donnacha O'Brien trained son of Australia was 3rd to the Derby favourite last time out and he also ran behind him in the Ballysax. Only 6th of the 8 runners in the earlier trial, he didn't get any closer, despite improving his finishing position in the Derrinstown,

    Most of the horses who ran against Bloshoi Ballet in both races fared worse on the second occasion but Fernando Vichi was beaten only one length further this time, suggesting that, if Bolshoi Ballet had improved by a few lengths, he himself has probably also progressed from seasonal debut. There were first time blinkers on in the Derristown and they are retained today. Is Fernando Vichi the one to beat then, given the drop from Group 3 to Listed Class?

    The betting suggests that The Mediterranean is the one today. 7th on debut, he then won his maiden and was entered in the Derby until just a few days ago. I felt he had zero chance at Epsom, so it is no surprise that he was re-routed to calmer waters. His maiden win was so-so form and he needs more here. I normally feel 12F maidens are a sign that a horse really needs a trip and I would imagine The Mediterranean stepping up to Leger trips sooner, rather than later. At 6/4 today I don't see any value.

    Colour Sergeant is representing a stable on fire. Ger Lyons is 6 winners and 4 places from his last 15 runners and is on a 40% strike rate. His colt had seconditis last season but did manage a narrow win before being 3rd to Kyprios. That second race didn't pan out well though and I am not sure the son of Kingman really wants 12F.

    Not sure I understand the ATR comment that Ruling has "Plenty to find on form" he was runner up to today's favourite last time out after a 4th on his only previous start last December. If The Mediterranean has improvement to come, surely Ruling also has, as a son of Camelot? He was only beaten a length and a quarter and is an each-way price at 9/1, whereas the favourite is a balls-in job at 6/4.

    Agrimony is positive in the betting and ran in the Irish Guineas last time, This is a big step up in trip though.

    Flying Visit was runner-up to Bolshoi Ballet in the Ballysax and holds Fernando Vichi on that run but he has flopped twice since, hence the 16/1 price tonight.

    I felt that Fernando Vichi looked ready for a step up to this trip last time. He lacked Bolshoi Ballet's pace that day but doesn't face anything like that talent here. The extra distance many just about bring the necessary improvement here. Could have done without Lough Derg letting the form down yesterday but now that Donnacha's colt has hit 5/1 I think he is the play.

    4.50 Leopardstown Fernando Vichi 5/1
     
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  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Pretty happy with that result. Fernando Vichi kicked on and looked like he would win cosily but the outpaced favourite and Ruling did stay on after him. In the end the winning margin was closed down late but he held on for a nice 5/1 win. Ruling wasn't far behind the favourite last time and got a little closer today. He was my suggestion as an each-way value option at 9/1 over the fav and he was third at 6/1 in the end.

    Winner at 5/1 and suggested each-way 3rd at 9/1 wasn't bad and made up for the earlier selection.
     
    #15
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2021
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  16. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Seems I had 'thirditis' today! All three mentioned finished third, all well beaten but e/w at the prices makes a small profit!

    Well done, Grendel, shout with Fernando Vichi! <ok>
     
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