Off Topic Tour de France

MVDP won in sensational fashion, pulling clear to not only win the stage but to take the yellow jersey. The fact he also attacked on the first ride up the hill showed how much of a talent he is and he will be very tough to beat on any one day event style course.

3.2pts returned so

5pt staked (3pts still running)
5.9 returned

 

Thomas is a weird one, he didn’t look good in the tough time trial at the Dauphine and again today he looked like he was riding to conserve effort rather than time. The issue Ineos have is that Porte has lost time and is basically out of contention so they’ve only got Thomas and Carapaz.

That means they will try to defend both riders and probably fail to get either in contention.

fortunately for them they’ve got two flat stages before the time trial so you’d hope they would ride sensibly and have a right old go at the TT before the mountains begin.

 

Stage 3

a fast descent and probably rain before a 1.5km drag to the finish. If Ewan is in a bunch sprint he should win on the form we have seen, but at 2.25 he isn’t worth the risk given the weather and technical nature of the final few KMs.

 

Just to add, it’s remarkable that Mark Cavendish is third favourite to win the stage today after being a late replacement for Sam Bennett. It does show what good form he is in and also how weak the sprinting division is.

Fourth in the market is Wout Van Aert who is unlikely to even go for the sprint!

 

Another crazy day on the tour, we’ve had two days of utter carnage in the first three. More crashes today, from Geraint Thomas going down early and taking our Gessink (big loss for Rog) and doing his shoulder. A quick pop back in by the doctor and the black Knight was back on his bike.

Then Rog went down with the help of Colbrelli, and lost time and got a nasty cut or five from the road. He took out Jack Haig who abandoned.

Then as the race hotted up further, Cavendish and Demare were caught up behind a crash, as was Pogacar. This put them out of the final sprint and meant Pogacar lost a little of his advantage from Roglic crash.

Then we had a scrimmage for positions in the final sprint and Ewan went down taking Sagan with him. Ewan did his collarbone and is out of the race. Sagan apparently is ok with the usual roadrash

so it left the race to Tim Merlier who was second wheel and followed up the teams win yesterday with a 1-2 today. A great result but it’s created some recency bias in the betting for tomorrow!!


0.5pt Cavendish @ 5.0
0.5pt Demare @ 5.5

I can’t understand why these two aren’t favourites. Don’t get it at all.

 

Cavendish won in great style. Having to switch and winning with quite a lot of ease.

6pt staked
8.4pt returned (3pt in play)

Now onto the time trial, or how much time will Pog take out of Rog and Carapaz day!!

 

TT tomorrow and I think it’s priced up incorrectly, Wout is the correct favourite but he hasn’t been at his best, and this field has a few lurkers who could be anything.

Asgreen rode a good TT at the Dauphine and this should suit him more, but the two I am with are Stefan Kung and Mikkel Bjerg.

Kung rode so well in last years worlds, this course is similar and I think his form this year has been good.

Bjerg is the outlier, he finished second to Asgreen in the danish TT championship but I’ve just got a feeling that he’s overpriced and could be primed to go very well here

0.5pt Bjerg @ 17.5
0.5pt Kung @ 5.6

 

I think Stefan Bissegger can do it very well. Maybe the time trial is a bit long for him but I would be surprised if he is not in the top five. He is also in a team where they usually do good time trials.

 

Warning today is that the weather looks difficult to predict, if the rain does occur at some point it will impact on some or all of the riders and their times. Keep an eye on the sky!!

 

It seems that at the beginning of the stage there is more chance of rain, then there is no chance of rain and those who start at the end of the stage are also at risk of getting wet.

 

More risk of rain between 12h and 15h local time. Bad for Bissenger, Bjerg and to a lesser extent Kung. Good for Asgreen, Roglic and Van Aert.

 

Bjerg goes quickest. Just need it to piss it down now!!!

 

He was lucky because when he finished a few drops of rain were seen on the television camera.

 

It has started to rain on some parts of the route.

 

I've laid Bjerg at 4.0 for 0.5pt so minimum loss on the stage will be 0.5pt.

Bjerg back - 17.5
Bjerg Lay - 4.0
Kung Back - 5.6

 

Bad luck for Bissegger, he is rained out from the start.

 

Incredible how he saved himself from the fall.

 

Bonkers how he managed to keep that up, brilliant skill/luck!