Off Topic Tour de France

Bjerg time beaten, it shows how the weather has impacted the day. He was matched at 2.1 when it was raining for the win!

 

Kung goes fastest, with Asgreen & Wout the likely dangers. If it rains now I’d be very happy!!

 

Absolutely insane by Pogacar. You just have to applaud that sort of performance by a GC rider. Unless he has an accident he looks a class apart.

 

It should be all about Cavendish again today but the prices are too short given that we haven’t seen a true bunch sprint where it was lead out driven. Merlier looks shorter than he should in the betting and I hope Demare is in better form.

No bet today but tomorrow and into the weekend looks to be the time when the race could explode for many in the GC

 

Cavendish wins, the others get it badly wrong again and now they head off for a mere 250km hilly stage!! Really is a bonkers race. I wonder who will fancy 6 hours in a breakaway?

 

Interesting day tomorrow as if the right guys are in the break the peloton may not give a serious chase. I fancy Trek or Movistar to get a couple of guys up the road looking for a stage win. Most of the other teams will be far more concerned protecting the major players in the GC.

 

Stage 7

A full blown monument within the centre of the TDF. It could turn into carnage or it could be 250km of not much action in the peloton. I’m not sure the traditional GC contenders will fancy this with the Columbier coming up before the first rest day.

So if the peloton do go for it, expect the punchers to dominate with Alaphillipe, MVDP and dare i say Pogacar himself.

however I feel they will let a break go tomorrow with the need to maintain some rest and that should suit riders who have gone well in the big monuments.

Patrick Konrad - rode very well in LBL this season finishing close to Alex Anberu. Also performed well in the Dauphine and far enough back on GC to allow him to go up the road.

Alex Amberu - been showing good form in LBL and Wallone before Dauphine and the Spanish championships. Should be allowed down the road and looks a danger

Matej Moharic - good at LBL, then tour of Slovenia. Far enough back to allow to go.

Lukas Postlberger - showing his talent this season won a stage of Dauphine. Already a Giro stage winner.

Alaphillipe 0.2pt @ 14.5
LP 0.2pt @ 85
MM 0.2pt @ 24
AA 0.2pt @ 24
PK 0.2pt @ 130


I will probably play in the race too when we understand who is in the break and how much leeway they are allowed.

 

I think that if there is a breakaway it will be a big one and they will let whoever is more than 7-8 minutes behind in the general classification. At big odds Toms Skujins could be there.
The Spanish rider is Alex Aramburu.

 

They're not going to let them go because Nibali is there. And it's a pity for me because Skujins is going too.

 

I was wrong. They do let them go.

 

This is bonkers, the key question here is - will Ineos blink?

If not Team UAE is going to have to do massive amounts of work and this could fracture around Pogacar in the finale. It’s going to be a fascinating day!

 

UAE can't spend the team so they will keep them at a safe distance. INEOS might panic and help out a bit. Movistar the same. Any overexertion today will pay off tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

 

The other issue is in the break, will the other riders just sit on WVA, MVDP and Nibali and make them do the work?

 

We'll see how many are left when they pass the mountain.

 

All three of them have people from their own team, although the Jumbo man is not likely to pass much to the relay.

 

Two of the five got into the break and it was a super Slovenian who won the day. Mohoric was strongest on the biggest climb and went 1 1/2 minute clear.

a nice 24.0 winner

so after the 0.5 pt loss in the TT (darn you Pog)


8pt staked
14.2 returned (3pts in play)

 

That's Serious 'reading of the game' there, Nass. Chapeau!!
I'd picked out KP & Campenaerts as having a bit of potential today (depending how it went, naturally), but also had a small play on MM, based purely on what you'd posted before today.
Brilliant! Cheers

 

Tomorrow’s stage looks another belter, I’m predicting a break of talented riders will go but I expect Movistar and Ineos to attack and it could bring the GC riders to the fore.

As such I’ve got to go with a mix of GC and breakaway talent

Miguel Angel Lopez - super talented climber, probably the strongest of the riders sitting a few minutes behind Pogacar and if he attacks I’m not sure the GC will want to chase him down. I don’t think he gets in the break which is why I think Movistar will attack in the mountains.

Pello Bilbao - expect him to go down the rod. Very good climber and team in flying form

Dan Martin - showed good form in the Giro and far enough back to get in the break. Loves a battle in the mountains and this is perfect for him. His tour starts here.


Pogacar - I couldn’t stop myself having a saver on him

MAL @ 15.0
Dan Martin @ 27.0
Bilbao @ 25.0
pogacar @ 7.8

All 0.25pt win bets

 

Some top tipping on here so far Nass. Movistar are sure to try and have a big say in the mountains this weekend and have great climbers in Lopez and Gaudu. A stage win looks realistic. I have gone each way on Gaudu and Higuita today but would be very happy to see Pogacar in yellow after the weekend.