Off Topic Tour de France

Oddy, I see it the other way, being a sprinter for such a long time, getting over mountains within the time limits despite not being a physically suitable rider for those conditions and being able to make split second judgments makes Cavendish an extraordinary rider and I think he should be viewed in the same pantheon with this record.

Let’s not forget that the tour is only part of his career, his Olympic record and general stage/race wins is incredible too.

I would also argue that it’s much more difficult to win races on the tour in the elite sport it is now, it’s a truly global race with riders from all over the world. Very different to the sixties and early seventies.

Merckx records are incredible but it’s like going back to the Arkle versus say a Sprinter Sacre argument. Horses for courses, riders for stages.

 

Will try and do some housekeeping of the betting on the thread tomorrow.

Today looks like a one day classic, and as such I have gone for the classic riders again.

Cattaneo - 40
Stuyven - 27
Mohoric - 18
Cort Neilsen - 17.5

All 0.25pt wins

I just think Wout and Alaphillipe are likely to be too drained to win this and it might go to someone who has targetted the stage. Cort Neilsen would be my first choice but all four are strong riders and have shown bits and pieces of form at the worst this tour. I would love Mohoric to win.

 

Wout and Kasper for me today

 

Another day for a breakaway with only two sections of steep slopes on the climbs today it should suit explosive riders rather than all out climbers.

I expect to see Wout in the break and if we do I expect he will win, either in a sprint for the line or a solo.

It looks like race over for the yellow, but rain and slopes could make it more difficult and caution will be the buzzword for the mighty Pog.

 

Happy Bastille Day Tour fans.
Fascinating stage today except for the fact that defence is far more likely than attack. It would be great to see Pogacar, Vingegaard and Carapaz taking each other on up the final climb and whilst they may well have a bit of a duel and test each other I think it is unlikely that this would be a battle for a stage win. Pogacar is defending a lead and his closest rivals dont seem to believe that they can catch him and seem more intent on trying to guarantee GC podium places. I hope I am proven wrong today and the teams really have a go.
I am having a dabble on two decent climbers who are both 33/1 today and are very capable of getting in a breakaway.
Michael Woods & Enric Mas
Just because it is Bastille Day I will also have a very small EW on Guillaume Martin at 150/1

 

I see it as the opposite, everyone wants to win on Bastille day and it’s the beginning of the end of the mountains. Ineos and EF both have to attack. Carapaz needs to take minutes out of Uran and Vingegaard if he’s got any chance of a podium. He will lose out in the TT on all known form!!

therefore I think Ineos will set the pace, they need to get it down to an elite field and mountain tops are much better for getting time gaps!

As such I expect Pogacar to win today.

 

Did it hurt writing that ?

 

You know I am a fan. I just wish he had some world class opposition.

 

I know. Its a real shame. I thought before last years race that we could be coming in to a vintage few years with Pogacar, Roglic and Bernal fighting out Tours but it hasnt materialised.
My biggest disappointment though is that Hirschi has now become just a peloton team rider since moving to a bigger team.

 

The crashes did for Hirschi, hopefully they will let him ride more aggressively at the Vuelta. Lopez has been the massive disappointment for me, he must have illness and injury throughout the tour. Normally he'd be one to watch today but who knows. At least he tried to go forward yesterday.

 

Ineos has not won a stage so far and today is his last chance. They should at least try. Small bets onTao 125/1 and Kiato 40/1.

 

Lopez today if they don’t make him ride for Mas.

 

He is the obvious favourite for today given that Pogacar will not want to give another exhibition, especially after the French police searched the Bahrain hotel last night for doping substances. Lopez looked much better yesterday than on other days and has a good chance.

 

Obviously couldn’t avoid another exhibition as he wins in a canter.

 

These exhibitions eventually create enmity in the pack because when you know you're going to win the big prize you have to leave something for the others. Indurain was a master in that sense.

Besides, they are going to put him in the crosshairs of the UCI commissaires. And for the record, I have nothing against Pogacar, I already commented last year that I had a 14/1 bet to win so I have to be grateful to him.

 

The final stage today or should we say the victory lap for the GC riders. I have had a pretty decent tour with a few stage wins. O'Connor at 16/1 and Konrad at 40/1 being the highlights and a couple of shorties and placed riders has made it a profitable tour. The fact that my favourite rider has triumphed again and Cavendish has come back with a bang are the icing on a delicious cake. I am sure Nass (who has put up some great shouts) will be glad its over and his phone will stop pinging every thirty seconds when a stage got exciting.
The emergence of several young riders looks promising for the tour and I am sure the likes of Vingegaard and Van Aert will ensure that Pogacar doesnt have it all his own way in the future.
Today however is more about the old guard than the young warriors. It is the day when Cavendish should break the all time record of stage wins but at 4/7 he is not really a working mans bet (or retirees for that matter). An interesting alternative may come in the form of the retiring Andre Greipel who has decided to call it a day after this stage, a year earlier than was expected. When I saw the prices yesterday evening I thought 50/1 was pretty long for EW betting and he is now down to 33/1. He would love to go out on a win and it would certainly enhance what has been a truly memorable tour.

 

Really hope its not an anticlimax with Cavendish today, for all he has been the best sprinter, I do think he is beatable and if Wout is in the same form as yesterday I wouldn't put it past him from beating Cavendish today.

The tour has been mixed bag for me, I have enjoyed it, but it has been disrupted by the crashes and the fact its so close to the Olympics this year. I don't think its been vintage and whilst the story of Cavendish has been the highlight, I think that is as much a story about who is injured as to who is fastest.

Not sure my phone will stop pinging, it'll just be about Suzi Best horses or something similar!!!