Tuesday's Meetings Limerick N/H 7 Races 12:25-3:52p.m. Newcastle A/W 7 Races 12:50-4:20p.m. Ffos Las N/H 6 Races 1:05-4:35p.m. Lingfield Park N/H 6 Races 1:15-4:10p.m. Southwell(E) A/W 8 Races 5:00-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Newcastle 235 fortified bay 16 ew bog 345 coolmoyne 11/2 Ffos las 215 bolintlea 6s 325 lightonthewing 2s
Ffos Las 15,25 Kym Eyre 14/1 e/w bet365, 12/1 others. All three places. Form stable and jockey is a concern.
In the (16:10) at Lingfield, a Class-4 Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f, I am hoping the Ask gelding, Learntalot, will go well. Has good enough form for this event, and conditions should suit. Sean Bowen rides for the Olly Murphy stable. 9/2 (Wm.Hill/BetVictor) best price at time of writing.
Nothing to do with today's racing but just a quick note re one of the forum's favourite horses of recent times. The Glancing Queen (try typing that, incidentally, without breaking into song) has now left Barbury Castle after being sold for £150,000. The 9YO mare is now off to the old breeding shed.
Apologies, should have mentioned this is selection's first run since recent WS, and tongue-strap fitted for first time. Price drifting a bit too, now 11/2 readily available!
The 1:05 today fascinates me, so much so I decided to get a pen and paper out!! So if I read my scribbles correctly Pace - Moderate Form Horses - Bert Wilson - standout form last time when winning, but 1 from 11 now. Up 4lb but the 3rd hacked up yesterday for this same yard. Still could be well handicapped and importantly he was a resolute stayer. Dunbar and Walkinwoods only other winners in field. Former (Dunbar) been chasing, so can hurdles spark more? Only 1 win in 28 for him. Walkinwoods 1 from 12, hold up horse who ran on from well back last time out. Lots of placed form. Then we come to Roger Rarebit, a quandary wrapped in a horse like body, he has traded 1.10 on two of his last three runs and was beaten both days. He hasn't won a race, but clearly has shown plenty of latent ability. So what might change today? They've reached for the headgear, the visor goes on, replacing the cheekpieces (and the hood previously). Will this work? Would you want to test it at 15/8? So then we come to three interesting horses - Ipsos Pierje, a right pain to write and a horse who hasn't shown much, but that was in decent novice hurdles and I have the note that states "Has he been trying" and "have they been running him to get fit". He has also shown greenness and inexperience, so he could be learning as he progresses. Today he starts off in poor company off a low mark. Is he a horse without ability? At double figure odds it might be worth finding out. The yard are good at this course too. Then we have a similar story with Bashful Kate (tongue tie added) but she looks lazy rather than breathing issues. Justshortofabubble has the back class to feature here, and with headgear on, could he be backable? I have plumped for Ipsos Pierje and I just hope he is in a battle with Roger Rarebit in the final furlong!! 11/1 still available.
How much do you look for a certain jockey in these conditionals races Nass? Can the jockey be a deciding factor? How much of the jockey's 10lb claim is factored into Roger Rarebit's price?
The visor worked then but you were right there was no value for the risk , i had looked at this one and would have risked Roger if the odds were better .
It's in the Stewards Report that she stated, after the race, that Kym Eyre 'jumped right-handed and hung left-handed'.
Thank you very much, but it is not in the "Official Report", maybe they have considered that it was not necessary. https://media.britishhorseracing.com/pdf/stewardsreport/?fixtureId=786&year=2023 On the other hand, Between Waters has an entry at Carlise next Monday. Maybe this time it's true.
Good question and I do think knowing which jockeys are good is an important part of betting on racing, and that is at all levels and not just conditional and amateurs. Take a look at Paddy's ride yesterday on Poetic Music as an example! In conditionals races I find it very interesting looking at conditional jockeys who are riding for their own stable, which in these races mean they can claim an extra 3lbs. Take todays 13:00 Fergus Gillard has ridden 62 winners in his career but because he is riding for the stable, he still gets to claim 3lbs. Ben Godfrey has ridden 49 winners but doesn't get a claim. It also makes the opposite side of the weights interesting, when a new jockey comes onto the scene like Freddie Gingell (who is already down to 5lb claim) but he gets to take a massive 8lbs off because he is riding for Paul Nicholls! I guess now I have mentioned the 1:00 I best go over to todays thread.
Care to rank these weights in order of win % in conditional handicaps over obstacles? (since 2013) lbs 0 3 5 6 7 8 10
10 (so 7lb claimer riding for yard) 6 (3lb claimer riding for yard) 8 (5lb claimer riding for yard) 3 (includes 3lb claimer not riding for yard, and 0lb claim getting 3lb for riding for yard) 0 5 (5lb claimer not riding for yard) 7 (7lb claimer not riding for yard) Ranges from 15% strike rate down to 6% strike rate
