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Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 7th. November 2023

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Nov 6, 2023.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    #1
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2023
  2. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Ron: Following is post I did for tomorrow's Melbourne Cup. Was waiting for the Tuesday DT but it's a bit late today. Would you or Oddy be so kind as to transfer to the Tuesday DT thread when it comes up. Thanks vm. Here goes, made it as short as I could but still looks typically long-winded! :emoticon-0100-smile

    ....................

    Tuesday is Melbourne Cup day, and the great Willie Mullins certainly has a double-handful this year. Vauban and Absurde both have great chances, and I will go for the Ebor winner this time, although Vauban has settled-down well at Flemington and has been very impressive in training gallops in Victoria.
    The booking of six-times Hong Kong champion jockey, Zac Purton, for Absurde is a real eye-catcher. Gets the ride because Frankie Dettori cannot do the weight. Purton said this is his best chance ever of winning this coveted prize. Many previous rides Purton has had in the race have often proved disappointing.
    So, without further ado, it's Absurde for me, with Vauban (hate to desert him) a huge danger. The fancied Australian entries I confess to know little or nothing about, but many will be well in the mix.
    ....................

    Absurde to win, with Reverse Forecast, Absurde/Vauban.
    ....................

    (Quite a good/short write-up on this year's Melbourne Cup in the France24 site):

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...ne-cup-glory-as-gold-trip-targets-another-win

    ....................
     
    #2
  3. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Thank you very much, Ron, much appreciated!
     
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  4. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    No problem Swanny. Hope Attivo doesn't mind
     
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  5. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    What this I see. A nh slow plodder Vauban a strong fav for the Melbourne Cup! Beaten out of sight in the Champion Hurdle. :emoticon-0126-nerd:
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm going Serpentine ew at 40/1

    Let's reflect on the fact that, as a 3yo, he won the Epsom Derby carrying 9.0 (in fact he romped home) and finished 4th In the Arc carrying 9.3, both races on good ground

    He's been running at distances 1mile to 2.5 miles but to date he has not run in a 2 mile race on good ground. In last year's race he was racing on unsuitable soft ground

    He carries 8.0 this year on his favoured ground

    An obvious choice on form (for me) has to be Without a Fight. Only last year he was btn a head by Hukum at levels on good ground. He was also down the field last year but again on unfavoured ground. He finished 6l in front of Serpentine this year and is 13lb worse off tomorrow. He is at 6/1
     
    #6
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2023
  7. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Interpretation 50/1 Ew 6 places with Skybet and 100/1 just the standard 3 places with Bet365
     
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  8. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Good luck all

    Playing these two

    Gold Trip @ 15-2...Win

    Soulcombe @ 10-1...each way [6 places]
     
    #8
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  9. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Harsh words, Chan, regardless of how he runs in the race, Vauban does not deserve to be called a NH slow plodder. Or maybe you're just having us on? If so, trust me to fall for it! :emoticon-0120-doh:
     
    #9
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  10. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Hi Swanny. Sorry a bit of mischief making on my part, just using the terminology that some flat fans on here us to diss us jumps fans. The NH plodder has to give a Derby winner 9 lbs too. Surely he should be allowed to start 5 mins in front of the rest. I hope Mullins prevails but at the prices I’ve followed Ron EW on the ex Derby winner at 40s.
     
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  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Never seen this before. I assume that means one could have up to £1 bet on Serpentine at 60/1 and £202 at 55/1 ?


    upload_2023-11-7_0-29-41.png
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    That was win bets. Just selected 6 places and it shows as 11s.

    upload_2023-11-7_0-42-51.png
     
    #12
  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Looks quite smart and simple

    Woa. Wait a minute, that shows "against" Serpentine which I assume means laying (since the other bet says "for"

    Maybe not as simple as I thought
     
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  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Got it now, I think The greens are for (ie to bet on) and the blues are against (ie to lay). I think the amounts are the amounts that can be staked at the odds shown
     
    #14
  15. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Unplaced & 2nd
     
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  16. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    6th for the place at 50s
     
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  17. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Absurde was best of the Willie Mullins two and finished 7th. Jockey on winner, Mark Zahra, really knows his onions. He could have ridden another one which looked more promising, but was adamant that Without A Fight had the better chance. Very smart fellow! Absurde ran a fine race for Zac Purton but just failed to get the full distance. 7th was a good effort though. Vauban was a huge disappointment, flattened-out, and ran a miserable race. 6/1 the winner means a ton of money must have been bet on the horse?

    Some nice place bets by the forum guys, well done indeed! <ok>
     
    #17
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2023
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  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Won at 7/1, not bad. Serpentine down the field
     
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  19. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    In between the madness of work and lunch hour picked these out to pass the day away at Warwick...

    2:30 - Eagle of the Glen
    3:05 - Sageburg County
    3:40 - Alex Romanov
    4:15 - Pemberley

    No bet, just picked em out for a bit of distraction from our busy works, and gets me closer to 5:00pm...!!! Good luck to all who do have a play today...<ok> <cheers>
     
    #19
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  20. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    The (14:30) at Warwick, a Class-4 Handicap Hurdle over 2m on soft ground, gives the French-bred Policy Maker gelding, Gerard Mentor, a decent chance to run a good race for an in-form yard. Conditional Kai Lenihan( (7) on board for the Kim Bailey yard.

    9/1 (BetMGM/BetUK) best price at time of writing. E/W best option at these odds.

    (Prices from Oddschecker)
     
    #20

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