Match Day Thread Watford vs. Norwich City 26th Dec, KO 7.45pm

In the past 5 seasons Norwich spent £65m and sold £112 m .

Watford spent £204 m and sold £108 m


IF we succeed and get promoted again we will be the club with the smallest budget again.

As well as probably sell some of our best players.
Norwich are unique at gaining success without Billionaire money bag owners or as a franchise like Watford.

We are 2nd poorest after Luton in the Championship with wealthier League 1 teams than us.


Go into any bookies and they will give you slim odds on us getting promoted and coming back down again.

No matter what graphs or charts you use we are drastically over achieving with the funds available to us .

Just enjoy the success and expect to struggle if we go up again.

 

If you think we have moved on in ways that are going to make a significant difference, you're deluding yourself. That's the message from last night. From the way people have been wading in following lisbon's post and my reply to it, anyone would think it had touched a nerve!

 

There is no message from last night, we just lost a game of football 1 nil, because we didn't play very well.

You haven't touched a nerve, it's just most people don't see things your way. We have moved on significantly, we are miles away from where we were at the end of last season and significant overhauled the squad, which has much better depth and quality. Financially we are in a much better position especially when you take into account Covid. IF we get promoted then we will see how its goes, we may well come back down, so what, we just need to keep moving forward.

 

What makes you think I don't enjoy the success Duncan? Also, I have never criticised our owners, or the financial or administrative model on which the club is run. But everyone at the club aspires to be, not just successful, but the most successful they can possibly be, and on that they have, by their own admission, so far fallen short. Is one not allowed to ask whether such "lessons" as have been learned promise better next time? Or cite last night as evidence that the answer is perhaps "No"?

 

I’d be interested to know if those massive xG leaps for Watford, other than the goal from a deflected cross, were the two incidents where Zimmermann and Skipp have the ball away.

Funnily enough, it’s just struck me that Skipp had a poor game and the last time we lost Skipp played poorly. Maybe the answer is in how he does...

 

You certainly touched a nerve with me, if that makes you pleased then so be it. I’m not really so keen on trolling on the internet.

But if you will actually take the time to engage - you keep talking about next season, but we are not even promoted yet. And as I said above your analysis of the match completely contradicts everything I interpreted, seemingly Farke interpreted, what the commentators were saying and just about every article I have read on the match, including (if my assessment is correct) your xG chart.

So, either you’re a unique genius who has spotted something in football no-one else has seen - including people paid quite a lot of money to do so. Or, you’re Don Quixote.

I suspect though, the truth is actually quite simple: we are a unique club whose board and, largely, fans, would prefer to see nice football even if it means we stand a lower chance of success in the Premier League. I count ourselves lucky to have owners who are not driven by the riches to employ safety first tactics to bore our way to 15th in the Premier League - I cannot think of another club like that (used to think West Brom were, but then Sam Allardyce...)

 

See above. I disagree. I think our owners felt burnt by the Hughton debacle and decided success at the cost of the beautiful game is not worth it.

 

The statements weren't aimed at you but you don't appear to be enjoying the current successful run and points accumulation far from it..


Promoted sides that strengthen considerably will always have a better chance of survival than those that don't.

The style of football may get us promoted but probably won't work as well against better more expensive sides.

That's not rocket surgery

 

On the contrary, my first impression (ie. that last night was a major indicator of our progress) was then replaced by a more considered analysis of last year's team and our present one. I also considered the residual impact of injuries, both on those returning and those still out. It was more a case of some players underperforming or lacking an end product. Emi's poor shooting on the night in an otherwise good performance isn't characteristic, as his 6 goals and 6 assists in 17 appearances shows. His 7.9 WhoScored rating was slightly above his season average (7.57) and well above Watford's best player, Sarr, on 7.4.

I'm surprised at the xG table, but perhaps it also indicates a weakness in that analysis. A deflection took the cross away from McGovern and presented Sarr with a tap in which probably rated an xG of something like 0.8. Does that mean Watford were more threatening in attack? I don't think so. They got lucky once and spurned a couple of other half chances. I don't know if that is indicative of their play as a whole, but I do know that last night wasn't indicative of ours. It was an off night, not one that should be seen as typical of our play. That's why I stopped thinking like you almost as soon as I started.

 

Well, we agree on something! Skipp allowed himself to be drawn too far forward, far too often, contributing to the over-commitment to attack I complained about. That lack of defensive discipline (by Max as well last night) was typical of our approach last season. It's what defensively well organised opponents play for, and exploit.

 

Don't we have one of the better defensive records in the Championship?

 

That was last week. Couple of our players had an off game, so all the good work this season counts for nothing.

 

That is indeed a FACT. But we've probably been riding our luck and yesterday we got found. We are doomed I tell you !

 

We certainly have "one of the better" records Duncan, if by that you mean we are defensively top half of the defensive table. That would include being the 11th best, which is where we stood pre-Christmas as measured by xGa (a much more informative measure than goals against). If you mean e.g."in the top quartile defensively", then currently we are not. For more insight see, for example:

https://experimental361.com/2020/12/20/scatter-graphics-championship-20-dec-2020/

 

It's very difficult to moan about this season so let's just complain about last season presume we'll win promotion from the hardest league in the World without praising anyone.
Then get the crystal ball out and moan about next season"s woeful defence based on last season or something ?

 

I disagree that xGa is a more informative measure. It’s a measure which adds another dimension. It’s also unsafe because you have different sites giving different xGa, so it’s clearly not a science. But the most informative is the one that actually counts - ie how many goals have actually been scored against us.

 

Disappointing result against the Hornets, next up QPR at Carrow Road, and we scored 4 without reply against them last time we played them. We just need Emi to keep his head this time round and not see the red mist. Cannot wait to see Krul back in between the sticks

 

New Match Day Thread required.
Any takers??
We are top,you should be jumping at the chance.
"Let's be having you"

 

I remember Melchett wanting to do the last one.
If nobody else does it then @Cromercanary is back up