Who will finish top 4

I can see this happening in the next week to be honest.

Conte is just a twot.

 

Don’t think I mentioned the World Cup. I just looked at the point where are results deteriorated. All I am saying is that if our form continues for the next 12 games as it has for last 10 we won’t make 4th.

If you are going to try it statistically it's best to do it over the form we have shown over the season to date. Problem is our form has been really up and down. Two average spells separated by 1 excellent spell - as I pointed out on another thread our form this season has been remarkably cyclical and if it followed we would now hopefully go through another long winning streak after the Man City game (I have the screenshot) - which we are maybe seeing the start of. However I just feel like we are struggling now to win games despite playing some good football. Both Wolves and Nottingham Forest games went down to the wire despite dominating. These are relatively poor sides based on their current points totals.

I agree that if you go on the form over the whole season we should finish on 69 points, but that will not necessarily guarantee 4th place - points required for 4th have ranged from as low as 60 to as high as 76. In 14 of the the 30 PL seasons to date it wouldn't have been enough, and only twice in the last 6 seasons has it.

Its clear that our main problem currently is scoring goals and that has been a feature of our two average spells - we scored 7 in first 6 games, then had 9 games where we scored 24, followed by 8 games where we only scored a measly 3 goals. We are starting to concede more now (conceded 11 in first 20 games and 8 in next 6) so we have to hope that we can start to convert more chances.

Don't get me wrong, I will be over the moon if we get 4th place, I just think we may struggle to do that. If we do then great, if we don't I am still happy that we now have a side that can dominate possession, be strong defensively and play attacking football. If we can turn that possession and attacking intent into goals we should be looking at good things for next season.

And don't ever accuse me of being at any school that Munson was part of.

 

All that and you agree with me, but I guess you must have been in the set below me.

 

@JakartaToon you'll not win many fans If you don't adhere to the cult on here mind.

Stay strong

 

I didn't realise that you will be 66 years old this year!

I don't want to admit to agreeing with you of course. I am just trying to reduce expectations on here - we seem to have a few posters who will convince themselves that we should now make 4th place and then get pissed off and want a new manager when we don't. Its certainly possible but we are going to need to get around 2pts per game for the next 12 to guarantee it. That's quite a tall order when you look at the fixtures.

 

Also being 2nd place in the Prediction League and in the semis of the FA Cup Prediction Competition I think that my views should be held in higher regard on here.

 

I absolutely agree and there's one faction that is being overly aggressive towards this opinion. They're entitled to make their prediction on my thread without ridicule and so are you.

 

Exactly and let's not forget I boast the league and fa Cup double

 

Thanks mate. Its good to have your approval!

I think "coming from the Munson school of statistics" is more aimed at you than me though.

 

I won't lie I don't use statistics it's not necessary for this Prediction.. they used to call it common sense.

 

You do use them. They are just not accurate.

 

I'm saying 3rd place...

 

Unless Ryan Mason can work miracles, bye bye top 4 for Spurs:

Tottenham Hotspur are expected to agree the departure of their Italian manager Antonio Conte, 53, this week, with former player and English first-team coach Ryan Mason, 31, likely to take charge until the end of the season. (Telegraph - subscription required)

 

It's a weak Premiership this season, so instead of what total we get, the focus needs to be on how we do Vs the other teams

I think Conte has just jumped on the self destruct button for Spurs top 4 place. His "sack me now" press conference means there isn't a chance in hell of him being there for the next game, and I would be hugely shocked if the interim manager can get top 4.

Liverpool - maybe, but they've had so many nightmare results this season, and are so inconsistent, ie following hammering Man U 7-0 with losing to Bournemouth. Even playing is with 10 men they looked very average. If we can push on, I think we can finish above them.

Chelsea - no chance of top 4.

Brighton - very consistent and underrated team, one of the best we've played this season. Wouldn't
expect them to get top 4, but it's certainly not beyond them.

So 4th place if really there for the taking right now, and thankfully we're going into the break in good form having started to win again. We're one of the favourites for top 4 now, and everything to play for.

 

Hopefully Brighton distracted by a cup semi-final/final might play in our favour, and Brentford affected by Toney being suspended for betting on football, if they ever get round to doing that.

 

Brighton are very good there's some football snobbery involved in ruling them out.

Best run club going.

 

Very good team. In the previous 'predict the top 10' thread, I had them finishing above us. A lot might depend on our rearranged game against them, but I still fancy them to do well. I hope Brighton and NUFC both finish top 6 to rattle the old guard. Top 4 for both would be very nice, but unlikely.

 

Brighton was arguably the toughest game we've had this season - against City we lost but had very good chances, Liverpool away we shouldn't have lost and at our place they weren't that good, Arsenal were good but we dug in and just about deserved the point....when we drew away at Brighton however, they definitely outplayed us and we were fortunate to get a point.

Lots (including me) thought the Houghton sacking was harsh, but it was justified as Potter took them to the next level, now amazingly De Zerbi seems to have taken them to a level beyond that. A good shout for at least top 6 this season.

 

They're definitely in the race for top 4.... Newcastle and Brighton are the two outsider ... can't rule them out.

 

A low blow right enough