X Factor 2015

Discussion in 'General Betting Board' started by Ron, Sep 20, 2015.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Odds as at 23.13 French time
    upload_2015-11-22_23-13-38.png

    I see bwin go 14/1 Reggie. I could have 400 on them to be completely safe but I'll risk it. Surely they can't win :emoticon-0145-shake :emoticon-0107-sweat. It's beginning to look a 1 horse race
     
    #61
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2015
  2. cityhull

    cityhull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    1,331
    Likes Received:
    103
    It should be a one horse race, I'm feeling rather smug as I said to the mrs after her first audition "She is the winner" shame I didn't invest at the time
     
    #62
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    The problem was CH, she was never really at backable odds then. There was always the risk that, at 17, we may have seen the best of her with her first song and/or nerves could have got to her in the later stages, and/or, given the format, she could have had a couple of bad weeks to shake her confidence. There was a hint of that as she drifted out to 3s at one point. With hindsight, should have lumped on then. I can't be backing a short priced fav in these comps as there is usually someone who improves leaps and bounds. The improvers have been Lauren and Che but they seem to have reached their potential now, whereas Louisa is just showing enough to keep her nose in front and is now drawing away; a bit like Faugheen last year.

    I knew this year would be difficult as soon as I heard them all at the start but I have made some terrible betting decisions.
    I took the 33s on Mason when he was brought back in with a view to laying him off but when he was as low as 12/1 I could have laid him off at 20s (max on offer) but didn't. There is no point in the free bet and very little profit to be made

    I laid Reggie at 66/1 <doh>

    My only (half) sensible bet was taking 12's for 4th Impact at the start and laying them off at 7.8/1 giving free bet at 4.2/1.

    The one thing that has been driven home to me is:

    Don't lay unless you think:
    • they have no chance at all
    • the price is far too short and you confidently expect to get on at a bigger price for a free bet

    Don't back to lay unless they have a good chance of winning and the odds are too high. If they have no chance of winning but the price appears too high, don't bother. There is no point in the free bet and there is very little profit to be made
     
    #63
  4. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Lauren and 4th Impact in the bottom 2. Reggie not. Scandalous.
     
    #64
  5. Deleted #

    Deleted # Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    20,613
    Likes Received:
    9,891
    I've had a go on this forecast @ 5/2

    1st. Louisa Johnson
    2nd. Che Chesterman
     
    #65
  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Haven't seen that 83 but those 2 to finish in the final 2 are 1/6 so pretty decent bet I would say.

    I really hope Reggie and thingy don't win
     
    #66
  7. Deleted #

    Deleted # Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    20,613
    Likes Received:
    9,891
    Reggie and Bollie? Yep, I agree. Should have been eliminated weekend just gone.

    Louisa is nailed on to win so I'm basically getting 5/2 for Che to finish second, with skybet. <ok>
     
    #67
  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    I have always maintained that the voting system is all wrong. To illustrate very simply:

    Contestants a, b and c

    2 million voters

    65% of voters rank them either
    1st a
    2nd b
    3rd c

    or
    1st b
    2nd a
    3rd c

    The other 35% rank them either
    1st c
    2nd a
    3rd b

    or
    1st c
    2nd b
    3rd a

    Under the current system one of a or b is out yet 65% of the voters (1.3m) want to see a and b in the final and c out

    No wonder we get the wrong ones in the final 2 sometimes
     
    #68
  9. littleDinosaurLuke

    littleDinosaurLuke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2011
    Messages:
    17,579
    Likes Received:
    22,624
    1/1000 some ****ty karaoke act will win
     
    #69
  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    That'll be me
     
    #70

  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Tonight Matthew I'm going to be Buddy Holly. I do a great Maybe Baby, so I'm told. Haven't heard myself so can't confirm <laugh>
     
    #71
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Just catching up with tonight's performances

    Reggie etc uninspiring first performance. Second performance - better choice of song. Might see them in the final Grrrrrrrrrr
    Lauren was not good tonight - disappointing
    Che Not brilliant, although good comments from judges
    Louisa first song very good, second song got rave comments from the judges but I thought a bit screechy. However she has this in the bag
     
    #72
  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Finalists to be determined any second now. Lauren will go I think
     
    #73
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Lauren and Che in sing off.
     
    #74
  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Not so sure now. Che has wobbled a bit. Toss of a coin.
     
    #75
  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Farce of a vote as it's only 2 judges that count. Cheryl and Simon.
     
    #76
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Cheryl sends home Lauren
     
    #77
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Simon ......................
     
    #78
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Lets the public decide
     
    #79
  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40,213
    Likes Received:
    6,320
    Fewest votes is ......................................... Lauren
     
    #80

Share This Page