X Factor

Last year I confidently predicted the winner at 9/1. This year it isn't so easy. I never look at the odds until I've picked my winner. This year it's a pretty average lot and after the first week I "put one through" because she was fit. Last night though she gave by far the best performance on the night and looked fit. Therefore she is my selection for this year. Unfortunately, looking at oddschecker just now, she is a very unattractive 7/4 fav. At this stage of the game that is very skinny odds. However, also at this stage, I can't see anyone else who could attract my money. So it's a boring no bet this time.

I know there aren't many X Factor fans on here but there are one or two so it would be interesting to see what other views there are.

 

Rough Copy

 

Interesting stick because, of the two boy groups, I prefer the other group; even though they nearly went out this week. Although I like Tamera there is no value at all there.

 

Nicholas. The Scots acts always do ok as they get shed loads of votes from north of the border and he's going to appeal to the teeny boppers. oh and he is quite good as well.

 

On singing ability alone old girl Tamera is in a totally, totally different league. If any of them are going to be a star recording artists of the future it is undoubtedly her. But whether she will win the X-Factor is a totally different story as the best act probably fails to win more often than not. Also, you do have to question whether she will totally ‘connect’ with the key voting demographic and at the weekend a tabloid put the boot in big time re her with an uncalled for and unnecessary front page ‘exclusive’.

The ones with definite ‘likeness’ appeal and who will get a lot of votes as a result are old boy Nicholas and that Hannah filly. Will that be enough to see either over the line though?!?

If someone held a gun to my head I’d say Tamera would still oblige but do agree that 13/8 holds no value whatsoever.

 

If the contest is eventually decided on vocal ability the winner will surely come from - in no particular order

Tameera (has star written all over her - not many girls come on and put Nicle Sherzinger in he shade - but this girl does)
Nicholas (wonderful pure voice and the likeability factor in bucket loads)
Sam Bailey (pitch and note perfect - hell of a pair of lungs)

PS am I the only one who thinks Sam Callaghan is an escaped Umpa Lumpa from the original Charlie And The Chocolate Factory movie?

 

Wouldn't disagree with that FF, except I'd take Nicole Scherzinger any day of the week

 

After tonight stick with my prognosis ... I rated it on the night as:

1) Sam Bailey
2) Nicholas McDonald
3) Tamera
The rest ... although Luke was far better than he has been ...

 

I'd have Hannah ahead of Nicholas to be honest. Tamera's 5/4 now and the bookies were right with Miss Dynamix being bottom tonight. 12s on Rough copy e-w looks interesting.

 

Dont know anything about singing, never watched the show in my life but had a look because of this thread, have not seen any of the other "acts" but the girl who wore the illuminati earings that werent on when she was interview before, who is favorite, who apparently smokes weed with pcp, has obviously already been decided as the winner and the next "big thing" for the mindless masses.

Lump on, free money.

 

As I indicated in the OP, this is not as easy as last year as there is no single outstanding contender. Missed last week but watched a recording of this week's. The voting is a shambles, with the 2 worst performers being put through early, leaving two better acts to fight for survival. Tamira can take comfort in the fact that James Arthur was put in the bottom 2 at one stage last year. Kingsland Road have a long way to go but I think they have the potential to get there and didn't deserve to go out just yet.

Possibly the best vocalist is Sam the prison officer but not convinced she could be overall winner. May be difficult to vote her out so could make the final 3. As for Luke, I would have given him no chance earlier but he has improved significantly and, in an open contest, who knows? Abbey was well and truly exposed 2 weeks ago being out of her comfort zone but back behind the piano, with her own arrangement, doing what singer songwriters do best, she was arguably the best performer on the night and put herself back in contention. The young Scottish lad has a very good voice but was a bit weak this week. Likeable and could be there for a while.

Tamira has what it takes but will nerves get the better of her? Will be interesting to see how she performs with the big band theme. Still my favourite for now but not at those odds in such an open contest with voting as it is.

Rough Copy, for me, are over-rated and I'll be disappointed if they make the final. Hannah has no chance of winning in my opinion and Sam should have gone out this week. Surely any one of these must go next week and any one of those the week after. Unless someone else really screws up on Saturday.

 

We have a new clear favourite in the shape of Sam Bailey. Yet again the bookies haven't a clue. Having had Tamera at 5/4 clear favourite, she is now 4/1 and Sam B is clear favourite at 6/4. Good singer though she is 6/4 is a ridiculous price in such an open contest. This is definitely not a contest to bet on in my view.


Latest odds

 

From a betting perspective the main problem with the X Factor is just that, the 'X' factor ... this year it is Sam Callaghan; undoubtedly the poorest singer in a singing contest but survives because of the teenage girl vote that has little to do with his singing or music credentials ... this is not mere conjecture on my part ... my 13 year old daughter reads out the 'BBMs' from her schoolmates during the programe, the praise from which is at distinct odds with his rather abject, labored, vocal performances ... have nothing against the lad personally, actually find myself feeling a bit sorry for him (and his family) most of the time ... at least up until he spouts inane platitudes like "that's what I'm about ... it's not all about the voice ... it's the performance" etc .... news Sam - it SHOULD be about the voice mate ... it's a singing contest

Not sure how the format works this time but if he gets in the sing off he can't possibly survive ... can he?

Anyway, I still feel it is between Tamera, Sam Bailey and Nicholas ... and I'm beginning to think it could be Sam on the back of endorsements like Robbie Williams' ... he's right she does just keep banging them out week after week ... I worry for Tamera ... she will get pelters from the same voters that keep Sam Callaghan - she has three big problems ... she's very attractive, talented and female

 

Couldn't agree more with all of that FF. I would add also that surely Hannah can't stay much longer. How she won that sing off murdering that song (and any other she attempts) is beyond me. She has to be the next to go if they can't get rid of Sam C yet.

I also fear for Tamera although I think she definitely is the one with star quality. Nicholas has a very good voice and good timing, could be a budding Frank Sinatra in the right hands. Sam B is getting over confident. She will make the final but I hope she doesn't win it as she would probably join the list of X Factor winners whose names and performances have long been forgotten.

 

Interesting that Luke is 30/1 on Betfair. Didn't like him much at the start but he is the biggest improver and maybe those odds are generous when compared to the others. Tamera now 8/1 which I would have taken if available in round 1. But she is beginning to look vulnerable. Nicholas hasn't put a foot wrong and would be a good ew shot but he's as short as 5/2 to win so no value there. This is as tricky as Cheltenham on Saturday and I still feel this is a no bet competition. Sam B at odds on is a definite no bet for me.

 

Now best priced 20/1 and as low as 14/1. At 20/1 still the value bet in the contest with a view to laying off when he is in the final. Currently 13/8 to go out in the final and 20/1 to win the final. There has to be a bet there as I'm sure he'll be in the final 3 and confident he will be down to 10/1 or below later.

Tamera was chronic last night and must now be vulnerable.

Rough Copy confuse me. How can they be so average individually yet brilliant when harmonising?

Sam Bailey went a step too far trying to sing Leona Lewis and a best priced 8/13 is madness.

Hannah is simply not good enough

Nicholas could be vulnerable for the first time with a bad choice of song

 

Tamera lucky not to be in the bottom 2 but at least Hannah has gone at last. Rough Copy sang better individually in the sing off than I've heard them before but glad to see they are vulnerable as I'm not too keen on them, in the same way I don't like JLS.

I see the money is coming for Luke, as predicted (best priced 16/1 and 10s with Betfred and Lads).

 

Next week each artist will sing one of their 3 choices as voted by the public. I have provided a link to each.

Luke Friend

Bridge Over Troubled Water, Simon & Garfunkel

Skinny Love, Bon Iver

One Day Like This, Elbow



Nicholas McDonald

The Prayer, Celine Dion and Josh Groban

Amazed, Lonestar

Just The Way You Are, Bruno Mars



Rough Copy

End Of The Road, Boyz II Men

I Believe I Can Fly, R Kelly

If You Ever, East 17 featuring Gabrielle



Sam Bailey

The Living Years, Mike & The Mechanics

Clown, Emeli Sande

Without You, Mariah Carey



Tamera Foster

The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face, Roberta Flack

This Woman’s Work, Maxwell Version

Emotion, The Bee Gees


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Having listened to a tiny bit of each song this is what I think they will/should sing

Luke. Any of the 3
Nicholas. Just The Way You Are
Rough Copy. I Believe I Can Fly
Sam Bailey. Clown
Tamera. The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face

 

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Best priced 14/1. At least I eventually found the one bet of the contest. Would still lay it off for a profit when he reaches the final 3 though.

 

I'm giving myself a Boom for finding the bet of the competition again. Now best priced 11/2 (4/1 SJ).

Rough Copy must go this week, surely.