If you get a minute Nas could you see what % of favs at 3/1 or more win, please I know only 1 in 3 favs win
17.8% in the last four years (UK Racecourses) - major loss to SP Split by race type AW 16% Chase 18.8% Hurdle 18.1% NHF 25.8% Turf Flat 18.35%
More questions if you don't mind If only 1 in 3 favs win, what interests me is what is wining the other 2 (eg is it more often than not the second fav?). Does this 1 in 3 apply across all courses? I had a thought that the stats might be significantly different if it was combined with other factors (eg heavy going, certain trainers, jockeys/ trainer jockey combinations, or draw bias. I would imagine that if there is a strong draw bias and the fav has a favourable draw, the ration might be better than 1 in 3
PS I set this up to avoid cluttering your test Nas, and have moved the other question and answer over This is also an invite to anyone who has any proven stats that produce a better than 1 in 3 strike rate It follows a little read I had about when form isn't working, is there a mathematical solution to betting When I was running my £10k experiments they were based purely on form and 2 were very successful with one breaking even. However I cannot pick a winner these days so was looking for an alternative
Course Runners Winners Win S/R P/L Betfair Newton Abbot 459 187 40.74 10.96 Ludlow 455 182 40 24.34 Huntingdon 533 210 39.4 55.11 Taunton 412 161 39.08 44.57 Hamilton 505 197 39.01 78.75 Fontwell 592 230 38.85 2.76 Exeter 491 188 38.29 41.52 Kelso 437 167 38.22 36.34 Warwick 519 195 37.57 31.28 Plumpton 477 179 37.53 -9.45 Sedgefield 523 192 36.71 2.38 Hereford 429 157 36.6 1.15 Wetherby 543 198 36.46 17.42 Catterick 823 295 35.84 74.48 Chepstow 894 320 35.79 23.57 Stratford 461 164 35.57 -6.29 Wincanton 488 173 35.45 -14.32 Ayr 936 331 35.36 105.03 Bangor-On-Dee 362 128 35.36 -1.17 Market Rasen 598 211 35.28 25.85 Fakenham 304 107 35.2 -25.87 Perth 435 153 35.17 3.14 Cartmel 219 77 35.16 18.1 Hexham 424 147 34.67 -11.54 Ffos Las 597 206 34.51 -17.1 Leicester 763 263 34.47 -12.64 Beverley 540 186 34.44 34.49 Worcester 491 169 34.42 -16.33 Aintree 245 84 34.29 45.18 Ripon 476 162 34.03 -1.68 Kempton 2433 825 33.91 -84.1 Goodwood 529 178 33.65 28.02 Sandown 684 230 33.63 -2.58 Brighton 488 164 33.61 -2.27 Lingfield 2563 858 33.48 -110.67 Haydock 948 317 33.44 64.54 Southwell 2146 717 33.41 -77.93 Wolverhampton 3015 1002 33.23 -13.22 Salisbury 404 134 33.17 -11.67 Yarmouth 664 220 33.13 -26.92 Nottingham 560 185 33.04 12.94 Musselburgh 800 263 32.88 13.75 Bath 584 190 32.53 10.34 Redcar 515 167 32.43 -16.34 Chelmsford City 1657 536 32.35 -55.67 Uttoxeter 738 238 32.25 -40.64 Newbury 912 294 32.24 -37.48 Pontefract 463 149 32.18 -20.74 Windsor 730 233 31.92 -19.06 Newmarket 1199 377 31.44 -67.42 Chester 361 113 31.3 -18.55 Ascot 728 224 30.77 20.82 Doncaster 1140 348 30.53 -71.48 Cheltenham 499 152 30.46 -20.58 Newcastle 2524 765 30.31 -216.97 Carlisle 644 193 29.97 -65.93 Thirsk 464 136 29.31 -47.81 Epsom 251 73 29.08 -10.88 York 517 133 25.73 -49.47
Very interesting, thanks Looks like filtering the Newastle favs by price could potentially be a profitable lay system, maybe Lingfield also Maybe filtering Ayr somehow (eg trainer, distance travelled) could give a potentially profitable betting system
Decided laying favs is not a good idea, unless you can back them at bigger odds early The only way to guarantee a profit by laying is to lay every horse in the race to stakes that ensure a profit whichever wins, which could be very hairy. So laying is out on the basis that it is very low return with roughly 1 in 3 favs win. Risk outweighs potential profit
Favs not going well today. So, in the next I think 2 points win the fav (whatever it is, currently Vellner 15/8, from 5s) ). if it loses, 4 points on the fav in the last (currently Tafsir 5/4)
Good start. Vellner won 11/8 so no bet on last race, but wouldn't have been anyhow as no clear fav Stake £2 Return £4.75 Profit £2.75
