Sunday's Meetings Sligo Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:25p.m. 1000 Guineas Off @ 3:40p.m. Hamilton Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:30p.m. Salisbury Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:35p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
After the anticlimax of yesterday's 2000G, where the two big market drifters finished 1st and 2nd, we'll have to see if today's 1000G is a little better. The 2000G chatter was dominated by how one horse was going to dominate the race whereas the 1000G has been about all about how open the fillies Classic was. I think it is very open. Fallen Angel looks justifiably the favourite but she can't be much ahead of a whole pack of fillies. I've backed See the Fire for the Oaks so will be disappointed but not surprised if she wins. My money has gone on Porta Fortuna as I think she looked a good Cheveley Park winner and I think the booking of Marquand is significant.
A very open looking renewal of the 1000 Guineas today and again only 1 Coolmore runner in the shape of Ylang Ylang. From 2016 to 2021 they won 5 of the 6 runnings of this race, 4 of those with daughters of Galileo (Billesdon Brook breaking the run with a shock victory at 66/1 in the 2018 renewal - Galileo daughter Happily only 3rd). Since the sad demise of the great stallion they are trying to find a successor and Zoffany provided them the winner in 2021 with Mother Earth (although that was possibly more due to Dettori than Zoffany). This year they are trying a Frankel filly, Ylang Ylang, but she already looks more like an Oaks filly on paper and she may be done for speed here. Winning the Fillies Mile on soft ground (See The Fire held) does not scream Guineas winner. Galileo daughter Minding was the last filly to win the mile as a 2YO and then take the Guineas. Favourite this morning is Karl Burke's Fallen Angel who showed an impressive turn of foot to defeat Ylang Ylang and others in the Moyglare Stud Stakes when last seen in September. Together with Vespertilio (not entered at Newmarket but has Irish 1000 and Royal Ascot entries) she pulled readily clear of the pack and then found again to run out a 1.25 length winner. Assuming she has trained on, she looks rock solid in this. "Assuming she has trained on" is a comment that applies to about half the field but not the Charlie Appleby duo. The unbeaten Cinderella's Dream took her winning streak to 4 in the Jumeirah 1000 Guineas in Meydan despite a slipped saddle (Buick would have been sore that evening) yet jockey bookings suggest that Nell Gwyn second Dance Sequence is better fancied. On paper at least, both would need to take a significant step forward to land this but you certainly wouldn't rule that out. The Nell Gwyn winner Pretty Crystal is also in the line-up and she did show markedly improved form to land the recognised trial (Cachet followed up in 2022). She is still learning but tough and 22/1 about her chances seems rather generous. The other Burke runner Darnation would appear to need rain whilst Albany Stakes winner Porta Funata is exactly the opposite, with her best performances having come on good-firm. Another recognised trial, Newbury's Fred Darling, is also represented with Elmalka (2nd), Regal Jubilee (3rd) and Star Music (6th) but that didn't look to be a strong renewal. 24 hours prior to the Fred Darling, Richard Hannon's Star Style put in an impressive performance to make all in a Newbury maiden over 7F and definitely falls into the "could be anything" bracket. There is bits of French form represented by the likes of Ramatuelle, Sacred Angel and Tamfana but Charlie Appleby should have a good line on that as his Romantic Style (now dropping back to 6F) won that race. In summary: Fallen Angel looks a very solid favourite and the likely winner, Appleby's duo are highly respected and Hannon's runner Star Style (e/w) could place at decent odds.
An open looking renewal of the 1000 Guineas is dominated by lines of form with many in the field having met as juveniles or in the trials races. Fallen Angel created a good impression when winning the Moyglare, a race where favourite Ylang Ylang trailed in last and Porta Fortuna was well beaten in fourth. Aidan O’Brien actually had the last three home and Donnacha O’Brien’s filly subsequently won the Cheveley Park, beating Pearls And Rubies again with Sacred Angel third. Sacred Angel will be making her seasonal debut today, has only raced over six furlongs and whether she will stay looks questionable. After that no-show, Ylang Ylang was a well beaten third in the Rockfel but the O’Brien filly subsequently reversed running with Shuwari in winning the Fillies’ Mile over course and distance with See The Fire third; however, that was on soft ground. Her three wins were all on ground good or easier, so does the daughter of Frankel need give and possibly further? Before the Fillies’ Mile, See The Fire was second in the May Hill won by Darnation, also on soft ground. She won on quick ground on debut but is today the Oaks trial for the daughter of Arabian Queen? Darnation had previously won the Prestige on soft ground but was well beaten in the Marcel Boussac under quicker conditions so ease seems to be a must for her as her other win was also on soft ground. The two recognised English trials muddied the waters. At Newbury, the Fred Darling was won by Folgaria by a neck from the impeccably bred Regal Jubilee with Elmalka just behind in third. Star Music had made the running but ended up stone last. On her final juvenile start Star Music had been third to Dance Sequence in the Oh So Sharp. At Newmarket, Dance Sequence made her reappearance in the Nell Gwyn but the Oh So Sharp winner failed to catch Pretty Crystal in the last hundred yards and re-opposes Richard Fahey’s filly over a furlong further here. It would be a surprise if the form were not reversed given that Pretty Crystal’s best juvenile effort was a second in the Princess Margaret to Sacred Angel. In his SportingLife.com column, Fahey is quite positive about Pretty Crystal’s chances, which I think augurs well for both fillies. After the 2000 going to a horse with only kitty litter form to its name, how about Cinderella’s Dream just back from Meydan? Her most recent success was the Listed Jumeirah 1000 Guineas (for which she was 1/16 with British layers) so she might be short of the required level. It is worth noting that Mawj won that race before collecting at HQ. French raider Ramatuelle ran in the Prix Imprudence to start her three year old campaign but was beaten on the kitty litter by Charlie Appleby’s Romantic Style with re-opposing Tamfana back in third. Clearly connections prefer Newmarket to the Pouliches but surely Appleby knows how good that filly was at Deauville. Star Style is impossible to assess having only won a Newbury maiden and Rolica has won a Newmarket maiden from two starts. Of the foreign raiders the best option looks like Porta Fortuna as her second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf and her European form suggests she is up to the required standard. Regal Jubilee looks like the obvious each way steamer from the Gosden barn but it did not look like a great Fred Darling. Both Fallen Angel and DANCE SEQUENCE step up to a mile and both should be enhanced by that extra furlong but I am just swayed by the Godolphin filly’s race fitness, although that will require an Appleby Classic double. Buick obviously chose the Nell Gwyn runner-up over Cinderella’s Dream having ridden both last time; so has Mickael Barzalona picked up a winning spare?
Here is Cinderella's Dream winning in Meydan - Buick an absolute passenger and I bet he couldn't sit down that evening
The Pretty Polly Stakes (1:50) has been a bit of a Gosden farm in recent times with seven of the last fifteen winners, including Oaks winner Taghrooda (2014). Other than her and Talent (2013) no other Oaks winner has won it in that time frame. Gosden is doubly represented this year with Strutting, a Frankel filly who was second over seven furlongs last September before losing her maiden tag on the kitty litter over an extended mile, and Friendly Soul, a Kingman filly who won her only start on the Kempton kitty litter over a mile. Only the former currently holds an Oaks entry but both can be expected to go well here. Carolina Reaper had quite a busy juvenile campaign (including winning a German Group 3) that culminated in a last place finish in the Rockfel, so is she going to improve much this term for a step up in trip? She could be a filly that needed the experience but she holds no big race entries and she is only the third turf winner that her dam has produced. Gray’s Inn was busier than the aforementioned Johnston filly, winning a selling plate and a nursery from eight starts but she was well beaten at Listed and Group 3 level on her final two starts and would be a big surprise today. Camelot filly Kitteridge lost her maiden tag on the kitty litter and now switches to turf. Hugo Palmer must think something of her to pitch her in here but I do not like kitty litter form on turf so I am minded to pass her over. Grey filly Lunar Eclipse has run once won once, holds an Oaks entry and has a winning half sister Zanbaq (by Oasis Dream). She is by Night Of Thunder so perhaps they are looking to find out today whether she stays but clearly she could be a good prospect. The favourite today is Andrew Balding’s Kalpana, who has won two of her three starts, most recently a course and distance handicap where she hacked up by ten lengths, for which the assessor upped her rating to 94, although clearly she is better than the mere number. She does not hold an Oaks entry but comes from a family that has produced some moderate winners for Juddmonte; the dam being rated 104 by Timeform. She is the form pick and her real rating should be over a hundred. Second choice in the market is Charlie Appleby’s Winter Snowfall, a daughter of Winter Lightning switching from the kitty litter to turf after winning a six runner maiden at Chelmsford beating a Gosden hotpot. Ironically she was beaten on debut by a stablemate in a five runner novice when joint favourite herself. She does not hold an Oaks entry but I am sure Sheikh Mohammed can get her one if she proves good enough. Her Dubawi half sister Dancing Goddess won a Listed race last year after transferring to France from Appleby’s yard. Could she be a Prix de Diane prospect rather than an Epsom one? This looks like a race for the notebook rather than the wallet as Kalpana is too short to be of interest and will a horse switching from the kitty litter be successful two days on the trot with Winter Snowfall? I hope that Lunar Eclipse runs well enough to get her a spot in one of the other Oaks trials.
The Dahlia Stakes (2:25) used to be a Stoute farm race but he has only won one of the last ten runnings and none of today’s six runners comes from Sir Michael’s yard. Last year’s Pretty Polly winner Running Lion failed to add to her tally after that, finishing last in the Prix de Diane before placing at Listed and Group 3 level. So she is on something of a recovery mission and might be a false favourite today. Hughie Morrison’s Stay Alert has been running in top company but was well beaten in the Prix de l’Opéra and behind Running Lion in the Fillies And Mares on Champions’ Day. She has not won on seasonal debut in either of her previous campaigns and her Group 3 success as a three year old was over 11 furlongs. Heartache Tonight was consistent for David Menuisier last term but that did not include actually winning anything and she was a well beaten sixth in the Oaks, where Caernarfon was well ahead of her in third. In fact that Oaks third is probably the best single piece of form on offer other than Caernarfon’s fourth in last year’s 1000 Guineas. She has never won on seasonal debut and her form suggests a preference for easier ground, so the Channon filly may be playing for a place today. Pam Sly’s mare Astral Beau looks like she definitely wants some ease in the ground and she has done all her winning at handicap and Listed level. She comes here race fit after being runner up in the Doncaster Mile, a race that she won last year before finishing third in this race. I suspect that is as good as she can expect today unless the heavens open as it was soft when she had a distant view of Via Sistina. Go and dig in your record collection for that one by the late David Soul. William Buick gets the leg up on Group 2 winner SILVER LADY today, having been beaten by her in Meydan when riding her then unbeaten stablemate English Rose. In fairness that looked like a Group 2 race in name only but English Rose subsequently won at Meydan and was second in a Grade 1 at Keeneland beaten by a 25/1 shot ridden by Frankie! So I am going to take the view that the Appleby four year old would not be here carrying a Group 2 penalty if they did not think she could get away with it and that is the best 2024 form on offer.
The 1000 Gns really is a tough one to crack , but, after a lot of humming and hawing, I agree with QMIII and will go along wih Dance Sequence for William Buick and the Charlie Applelby team. (Erm, Carolina Reaper looks a real hot one in the opening affair coming-up? )
3 of the first 4 and 5 of the first 7 in the 1000 Guineas already had a run this year. I don't like trainers sending horses to a classic on seasonal debut - IMHO it disrespects the history and tradition of these races. I think both Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang will come on a ton for that. I wonder whether Spencer will keep the ride on Tamfana? Gave her plenty to do in his inimitable style.
Difficult one that: I think it has changed because of two things. The first is the advent of all-weather gallops. If it was a wet spring galloping immature horses on a heavy going gallop was a poor option. The second thing is the loss of Guineas Trials. The first may have helped precipitate the second of course. 35/40 years ago there used to be a 1000G and 2000G trial at Ascot (though did move to Salisbury), two second tier trials at Epsom (though often considered hybrid trials for the Guineas and Epsom) and Kempton trials. Two of my favourite Guineas winners were Royal Palace and Brigadier Gerard, they both went straight to the Guineas. Hern's thinking was that he saw no point in taking on either of the market leaders before the big day (a good point). After My Swallow had won the Kempton trial and Mill Reef had won the Greenham much was made of BG not having had a race. Apparently Mercer's reply was 'well he's never had a race'.
I won’t disagree with the facts that you stated but I am inclined to give Spencer the benefit of the doubt as he may have been riding to orders. The finishing positions of his filly and the French filly do suggest that they might be a reliable form line, however. I do not think that Fallen Angel will “come on a ton” as I think she simply did not stay so she will drop back to sprinting. She never had any chance to win. Ylang Ylang does look one to keep an eye on as her middle distance pedigree makes her the obvious Oaks candidate out of the field based purely on finishing order.
I agree with quite a lot of what you say in that it used to be very easy to assess the first two Classics based on the top two year old races – especially the fillies. The late developing horses were left to mature and then they would take over in the second half of the season. I can think of a few champion milers that never ran in the Guineas or the previous season. The Guineas trials have become something of an irrelevance as there is now all year round racing; so horses that used to contend them stay at home and work on the gallops. It is harder for punters but surely we want to see the best horse win.
Talking through the wallet time: I backed two of Appleby’s three fancied runners today and neither of my two bets (or the other one) went a yard. I expected Winter Snowfall to at least challenge in the Pretty Polly but she never even threatened to win and ended up eased down and tailed off, while Gosden notched up another victory with Friendly Soul, a filly who clearly only wants ten furlongs. I had left that alone but did punt on the Dahlia Stakes with Silver Lady, another Appleby filly that was heavily eased off when she had no chance to finish a remote last. This hardly augured well for my Guineas filly from the same yard... All I can say for Dance Sequence was that she was not tailed off last. She had every chance coming out of The Dip but was never catching anyone. At least she reversed form with Pretty Crystal! I wish I had Guineas seconditis...
The AW used to be synominous with donkeys but it's been changing for a while now and better class horses are running on the AW. More investment has gone into AW since the better surfaces have been proved. For me, this is all good news because it gives trainers the opportunity to not rush young horses with potential. Glad it is beginning to pay off as it can only be good for racing, eliminating extremes of going and making race preparations more reliable. Although I have to admit that seeing that little grey mare ploughing through the mud to beat off all the boys in the Arc was far more emotional than any Guineas or Derby/Oaks
No one seems to mention the filly I backed, Porta Fortuna, rather talking about the 3rd, 4th and 5th plus of course the winner. Yet Porta Fortuna ran a really game race and conceivably could have still been ahead of the 4th in another 15 yards, she was coming back at the winner. She looks a tough filly and one who should feature well in the numerous 7f and 8f races this summer. I almost wonder if Marquand, being the fine character he is, might have voiced to connections that he should have won. Anyway, ran a great race.
Except that yesterday's winner ran in the Fred Darling and ran promisingly. So I feel trials still have their place.
