Daily Racing Thread Thursday 16th. May 2024

Thursday's Meetings

Limerick
Flat 7 Races 1:30-4:38p.m.
Perth
N/H 8 Races 1:50-5:25p.m.
Salisbury
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:02p.m.
York
Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:20p.m.
Clonmel(E)
N/H 8 Races 4:55-8:30p.m.
Fontwell(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:10-8:10p.m.
Lingfield(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:52-8:22p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

If it doesn't rain too much, I fancy Economics in the Dante.

 

Everybody else that had Mill Stream on their ATR Tracker obviously piled on as the price collapsed from 8/1 to 4/1 and it prevailed by a flared nostril in the Duke Of York Stakes on the first day of the Dante meeting. Thursday’s ATR Tracker email has arrived but I already knew the horse was running and I won’t be involved.

The Derby is still quite open if you are not in the camp that believes all the waffle about the Ballydoyle wonder horse’s heart rate. I think it will probably be 100/1 on the Exchanges by Tattenham Corner.

So the last of the big trials at York might be pretty much our last chance to glean any form clues for the big day.

Seven face the starter at 3:45 and some sort of case can be made for most of them. War Rooms will start the outsider of the field as he had a distant view of the favourite’s stablemate in the Sandown Classic Trial and there is no evidence from two juvenile runs to suggest he just wants good ground and a flat track. His easy debut win was on soft ground and he was third in a Listed race under the same conditions (a race won by Poulains runner up Dancing Gemini). Having raced just twice, Economics needs a big step up on his odds-on win in a mile maiden at Newbury but clearly he must be regarded well by connections to be in the line up. Despite having had several entered, Aidan O’Brien has supplemented Cambridge into this having sent Diego Velazquez to Longchamp on Sunday (fourth in the Poulains). The fact that he is rated a 14/1 shot by the bookies is a clear indication that they were not impressed by his more than six length fourth in the Craven but the Poulains third Alcantor was behind him that day. Caviar Heights trailed in last in the Royal Lodge as a two year old, where Al Musmak was runner up. He started his Classic campaign with third in the Feilden, where subsequent Lingfield winner Ambiente Friendly was fourth; and won the Newmarket Stakes, reversing previous placings with Whip Cracker, so he comes here with realistic prospects. He obviously has a fitness edge over Al Musmak, who has not been out of the first two in four starts, winning a Listed race before that Royal Lodge second, finishing ahead of Macduff both times. God’s Window completely fluffed his lines in the Dee Stakes and deserves another chance but he has something to find with Ancient Wisdom, who beat him in the Futurity at Doncaster last October and is clearly the form pick. He won the Autumn Stakes with Ambiente Friendly third and Aidan O’Brien has declined to send runner up Chief Little Rock for a rematch. He seems indifferent to the going and his only reverse was when third in the Pat Eddery, where Al Musmak was second. At the cramped odds, I will just be watching my Tracker horse Ancient Wisdom today. If he turns out to be ring rusty then he would go to Epsom as not the first horse to be beaten in the Dante before going to the Blue Riband.

The Middleton looks like fascinating renewal with Free Wind back to try and start her campaign with a repeat victory. Bluestocking came close to Group 1 glory at the end of last season and Godolphin’s Sapphire Seas was runner up in a Group 2 in Meydan at the start of this year. Placed in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks as a three year old, Caernarfon will need to improve on her debut effort to trouble the principals today. Infinite Cosmos only has four races on her CV, having finished third to Sapphire Seas when last seen, but she resides with the trainer most known for developing older horses so she could improve past the more seasoned campaigners here.

The last race today might only be a three year old handicap but that old adage about topweights in them might be interesting as that place belongs to London City, a rare handicap foray by Aidan O’Brien with a son of Classic winning filly Winter.

 

In recent years, I have tended to give big field handicaps at York a wide berth as they have come down the middle of the track for all sorts of distances since the drainage work was undertaken. However, I am going to take a look at the sprint that opens the Thursday card because it looks easy to narrow down the 17 runners to just a handful of possibles.

The weight structure makes life difficult for the bottom three as they are five pounds or more wrong at the weights. A visor has been applied to Shalaa Asker and the jockey’s claim cancels out the 5lb it is out of the handicap but three efforts this term have not seen it trouble the judge. Eight year old Count d’Orsay has done nothing in two starts and is overburdened by 8lb so surely won’t be involved at the business end today. Ten year old Copper Knight was second at Chester last week and loves this course and distance but 6lb is two lengths at this trip and he won’t be getting any quicker.

Mondammej is only 2lb wrong but the seven year old has not won since he was four. Good Earth won three times last year but his last four starts are all duck eggs so he needs to show some semblance of a return to form before he makes any short list at seven. Strangely, I thought that Bergerac was a lot older than six. I know sprinters run often but it seems he has been around longer than five seasons. His form this term is all on kitty litter and he is another one that needs to show something to be considered next time. Squealer has been off on his travels and whilst runner-up in a Grade 3 in Bahrain might sound good, he has not been seen for 90 days and runs off a rating of 95 having last won off 84.

After winning first time up at HQ, Tees Spirit stepped up to pattern company and trailed in last so now returns to handicapping on an 8lb higher mark. Mia Nicholls takes 5lb off his back but that does not look likely to be enough. It is difficult to know how to judge Marine Wave as she ran well most of 2023 without winning and has had a pipe opener. In his column Richard Fahey says she is fit and well but frustrating. Arecibo is only having his third run for his new yard and will need to run like he did on his yard debut (second at Musselburgh) rather than last time’s effort at Thirsk to get involved here. Almost similar remarks can be made about Wen Moon, who failed to back up a good season opener at Pontefract last time at Ripon; and would be managing a career best to win off 87.

I am sure that none of us recall Jm Jungle winning in Bahrain back in February and his fourth at Musselburgh three weeks ago will have put him straight for today but he is 6lb higher than his last winning mark and only has three career wins. Clarendon House made a satisfactory effort at Goodwood 13 days ago after a break so he should be in the mix if he is not too high in the weights; however, the biggest field that he has won in consisted of just nine. Looking at horses that may be overburdened, topweight Korker was second last year (four of today’s rivals behind) and comes here again having only had one run but with 7lb more than last year he is going to have to be at the top of his game.

The Crisfords have a very interesting contender in the lightly raced Spartan Arrow. His fitness has to be taken on trust but he did win on last year’s seasonal bow. He won last time he was seen but that was 11 months ago and that facile victory sees him burdened with 9lb more by the handicapper. Seven year old Alligator Alley has not been seen since seven weeks ago on the kitty litter and gets in here on a reasonable mark (11lb lower than when sixth last year) if he can show form like last summer.

That leads me to Karl Burke’s presumed second string LOOKING FOR LYNDA, a course and distance winner that comes in on the back of two reasonable placed efforts (second at Epsom, third at Ripon), so hopefully Lynda is standing just beyond the winning line.

 

3.50 Perth-Liverpool Knight

Each Way...currently 13-2

Stable in form

 

One to avoid on my current efforts, which have been awful, to say the least. However, will stick with Northern Express just one more time (?) in the Class-2 Hambleton Handicap (14:45) at York, over a distance just short of 1m on good ground. Paul Mulrennan on board again for the Michael Dods yard.

9/1 (Bet365/Wm.Hill) top price, early-doors, on the ATR site. E/W preferred option.

 

Simple double at York for me today. Ancient Wisdom (Dante) and London City in the last

15/8 and 4/1, roughly 13/1 the double

 

Oh, darn it, beaten a neck in a driving finish, the first two being well clear of the third home. Never mind, selection ran his usual game race. He really is a model of consistency, and deserves to win a good handicap this season. Happy with the e/w though.

 

Thought he was coming to win that Swanny but the leader responded well and prevailed by a neck

 

God's Window ew

 

Bloody hell Bustino, that was so easy

 

I like Night of Thunder and I was a fan of Peintre Celebre, but I can't see Economics being suited to Epsom, nor 12f. So I will be surprised if he gets supplemented for the Derby

 

Event Of Sivola died today at Perth. Nine runs since October and saw him win in the bottomless mud at Hexham in December. Another case of one more run?

 

Unplaced

 

Just watched it, yes impressive I couldn't be having the favourite unless it was hock deep. He had to be taken on.

 

The maiden that Economics ran in last back end is working out very well.

1st Zoum Zoum - won a Listed race in France late last year then 2nd on seasonal debut in the Greenham

2nd Kikkuli - won on seasonal return and reportedly heading for the Heron Stakes next with an eye on Royal Ascot

3rd Balmacara - won both his starts so far this year

4th Economics - won maiden and Dante Stakes

5th Individualism - 2nd on seasonal return last month - entered to run at Newbury on Saturday, currently 16/1….

https://www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2023-11-03/850649