The 2015 Epsom Derby

O'Briens very patchy stable form surely had plenty to do with the 'non runners' Ol Man River and JFK yesterday though don't you think?! This year's Derby is starting to look more like a handicap the closer we get to it and at this stage I'd actually say ELM PARK could be the one to take from the Dante. The winner seems a jog and sprint specialist to me, if they've sense they'll send him to France which was always Gosden's plan. The weakness of the Derby field may make them change their mind however. Jack Hobbs like I predicted ain't winning a Derby though he ran well against a 10f horse but it was the third caught my eye yesterday. Given a very 'careful' ride one could say in seasonal debut, he'd reverse Dante form in a proper run Derby over a mile and a half in my opinion. But this year's Derby does look like any old yak could win it

 

We get this every year before the Derby. There is either some potential superstar that is a short-priced favourite (in recent years, usually supplied by Ballydoyle) or it is wide open and so it must be substandard.

The obvious one to take from the Dante was Elm Park as he was not knocked about once the Gosden duo had gone by as Atzeni knew that the Derby is not won at York. In that respect, I agree he is the one at Epsom provided it is not too fast.

With Zawraq skipping the Irish 2000 Guineas and going straight to Epsom, I think there has to be every chance that he will end up favourite as the bookies will be looking to lay the Ballydoyle contenders because of their indifferent form so far this season.

As Gleneagles was 4/6 for the Irish 2000 Guineas with Zawraq still in it, he is now 1/3 and will surely not be going to Epsom (only Betway quoting him at 20/1 but 60/1 on Betfair).

Interestingly, since earlier on Paddy Power are now quoting Success Days at 14/1 with a run for the Derby and Stan James go 20/1 all in.

 

So you have allegedly been proved right that Jack Hobbs won't win the Derby by his run in the Dante, yet at the same time you tip up Elm Park who Jack Hobbs comfortably beat yesterday. Surely you are contradicting yourself?

Although Jack Hobbs was beaten there are plenty of positives for him, he travelled 3 wide having been drawn in stall 8, where as Elm Park and Golden Horn both had nice positions on the rails. So I think you have to mark Jack Hobbs's up a little when taking that into consideration.

As things stand of the horses entered in the Derby Jack Hobbs has the best form of the lot of them, by his run in the Dante yesterday, and the only thing that can change that is if they supplement Golden Horn for the race.

And even then I certainly wouldn't rule out Jack Hobbs being able to reverse the form with his stablemate.

Wether he is allowed to run in the Derby or not, I am still convinced after yesterday he will win a G1 race this season

 

So basically you're implying form can never be reversed in any circumstances Shergs In case you missed it, that was ELM PARK's seasonal debut therefore it's hardly unreasonable to expect him to improve lots for the run, more so than the 2 who finished in front of him. They obviously both stepped forward from their seasonal debuts

The way he travelled comfortably until blowing up would make me think there's improvement to come. I had him down as a soft ground horse, the fact he's been scratched before suggests ground conditions are important to him. He reminds me of Kingston Hill, I can see him running a big race at Epsom. If there's some juice in it, I can see him going very close. It won't take much winning this year in my view. Elm Park could be good enough.

 

I have not said form can't be reversed, the point is you dismissed Jack Hobbs run, and claimed you where proved right about him, and then at the same time recommend a horse that was behind him.

Either way regarding Elm Park he certainly has a chance in the Derby, especially as the 2 horses that beat him yesterday aren't guaranteed runners. However I think it's always risky to assume that horses will come on for the run. After all Elm Park was supposed to run in the Guineas a couple of weeks ago, so I can't imagine they would have trained him for the Guineas to be in need of the run.

Elm Park also has far more racing experience than the other 2, so you have to think there is more improvement in them. Jack Hobbs especially was still very green

 

Trainer John Gosden has revealed that Golden Horn is to be supplemented for the Investec Derby.

The Betfred Dante winner must be added to the field for the premier Classic at a cost of £75,000, and the Newmarket handler told the Guardian that would be the case following discussions with owner Anthony Oppenheimer.

The French Derby over 10 furlongs had been considered the more likely target before the performance of the Cape Cross colt on the Knavesmire, where he beat stablemate and pre-race Derby favourite Jack Hobbs.

Gosden said: "Quite correctly, he wanted to wait to see how the horse came out of the race. But I'm very happy with (the horse).

"That (supplementing) will be the decision, we will go ahead and supplement the horse.

"We don't do that until five days before the race so, as long as everything's all right then and everything's in order, we are planning to run the horse."

He added: " He's a handy horse, he's well balanced, so he suits the race, really. As long as he switches off, he should get the trip well."

 

Golden Horn runs and look s a good thing. What's gong to beat him? I've not seen anything to lose sleep over. 2/1 actually looks fairly generous to me.

 

Not sure 12f is his trip so 2/1 is too skinny for me.

 

There must be a doubt about Golden Horn getting a fast run 12f.

 

I don't see why to be perfectly honest. Maybe i'm missing something but i'd be keen to see him be ridden like the Dante, switched off and use that milers speed to sweep to the front. Once he's established a fair lead i'd be surprised if anything could pick him up. Whether you like the yard/operation or not, the complete lack of any quality from the O'Brien makes this is a really poor looking renewal in terms of depth. The Dante looked far and away the strongest trial. The front three pulled well clear and he was cosily ahead of the second and third. If all he has to do is beat the Dante placed horses i think he'll do it.

 

Everyone says this every year about the Derby. But I fancy the Dante was a very strong trial, and that will be proven throughout the season.

On pedigree there is a slight doubt, however plenty of horses with less stamina in there pedigrees have stayed 12 furlongs, Sea The Stars for example looked to have even less. I'd rather go by what I've seen on the track, and Golden Horn ran on strongly to the line in what was a strongly run extended 10 furlongs, so he only has a furlong and a half further in the Derby, which I don't see being a problem for him.

 

Jack Hobbs reminded me a little of Workforces Dante 2nd. I wouldn't put it past him to perform better next time but I wouldnt be certain either.

What on earth is AOB going to run?

What does the dam side look like for Golden Horns stamina?

 

Workforce got lucky that the superior Cape Blanco who beat him in the Dante didn't go to Epsom. Though I agree that Jack Hobbs still has a chance in the Derby if he is allowed to run. Though I fear he'll go to Ascot with JH, as Gosden seems to have a thing about the Ascot race. If only he had sent Nathaniel to the Derby rather than Ascot.

I actually don't think Coolmoore and AOB are to concerned about not having a top contender for the Derby this year, afterall most of what they do is all to make money in the breeding barn, and connections have the last 4 Derby winners on their books. This is the reason I think their quite happy to keep Gleneagles at a mile, as they are more in need of a stallion with speed. I think had this been a few years ago when Coolmoore hadn't won a Derby for ages, Gleneagles may well have gone to Epsom. But at the moment they'll be quite happy for Gleneagles to mop up a few more G1s at a mile, and then be packed off to stud. He's unlikely to face much competition from the older horses, if yesterday's Lockinge is anything to go by

 

The Gosden yard have serious doubts about GOLDEN HORN staying the 1m 4f trip. Gosden himself has said that the horse has far too much pace to be a mile and a half horse. From what I heard it is a big surprise that they have changed plan again and are going to supplement him. They are going to wait mind you until the very last opportunity to supplement which is five days before the race. Gosden must have seen something in his Dante performance that convinced him that the horse will stay but that certainly was not the trainers view before that race!

Only a furlong and a half shergs LOL

 

I look on that mummy side and see the dam of a Kings Stand winner, Then I see Habitat who was a great damsire and was a Derby winner's damsire but that Derby winner was by Mill reef and the grandam stayed a bit: Habitat was mostly about speed. Charlton got a half-sister of GH's dam to win the Lingfield Derby Trial but he was by Caerleon.
Comparing him with Sea the Stars is a good idea but Sea the Stars had way more stamina on his mummy's side.
He may get home, plenty who've looked shaky before have. But if you asked me would he stay a fast run 12f race I'd have to say no.

Beautifully bred animal though.

 

That's different to what he said in his interview after the race. Gosden has always thought of him as a Derby horse, it's the owners that had been stubborn about him being a 10 furlong horse.

A furlong and a half isn't far, when the horse seen out the extended 10 furlongs impressively, he certainly wasn't slowing up approaching the line

 

Visually I have seen nothing from the horse to say he cant stay, the doubts are on the dam side but the fact he is by Cape Cross is in his favour, the majority of Cape Cross's good horses have excelled at 1m4, Crystal Capella for example was out of a 7f mare.

He looks our best 3yo to me and even if 10f is his ideal trip, it doesnt mean he wont stay. Would I back him at 2/1 today? No chance. Will I back him at 3/1 on the day? Definitely. Hes no good thing but he looks the most likely, nothing else has shown that class, I have Giovanni Canaletto covered and I still think he is the one with the potential to be a threat if Obrien gets him there ready.

 

I agree Joe, I think you'd be silly to back him at 2/1 now, as it's still not a 100% guarentee he'll run. There will be some bookie on the day going 3/1 in the morning, as there always is

 

"after the race" maybe but until that point Gosden has always said that he could not see him staying 12 furlongs, which is why he wasn't in the race already! It certainly looks an indifferent year and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see one pop in at a big price!