JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial Sat 26th Jan

I preferred when these races had proper names that allowed punters to recognise the race fairly readily.

Anyway, this used to be the Finesse and current betting has Adjali and Torpillo close together at the head of the market.

I backed Adjali this morning at 2/1 purely because connections nominated the Victor Ludorum at Haydock as Torpillo's next target.

It was stated that Torpillo was likely to get soft ground at Haydock and they felt that would be ideal for the horse. If that IS still the plan it seems unlikely he will run on Saturday at Cheltenham. This is compounded by both horses being in the same ownership. I would think they would leave any clash until the Festival itself in the big one.

Adjali 2/1 for me anyway.

 

2/1 for an “if” statement. Not for me at all. More than happy to wait and see the shape of the field and who actually turns up on the day. Throw in the bits of rain and who knows what the ground will be like

 

Please your arse mate.

 

A forum - a place to debate.

Or in this case, to cry when others have a valid opinion

 

You are the one doing the crying pal. You've been on my back since I got here.

The thread was about considering potential winners, people can make their own mind up whether they want to play early or not.

You have added zero in terms of helping someone form an opinion on the race. If you want to wait until Saturday that is your prerogative.

My opinion is that Torpillo may not run. I also feel the race will cut up and some of the entrants are way below what it would take to win an average Finesse.

Adjali is already cut across the board and there is a sea of red on Torpillo, there are swathes of red on several of the other entrants, probably reflecting that participation is in doubt.

I ran a betting shop for ten years, so give us a little credit for having an eye on market tendencies.

 

Nelson River has a bit to find with Adjali on Racing Post figures. He is 126 to Adjali's 136. I am a bit dubious about Adjali's official rating of 147 but if he is that good he will take a hell of a beating here.

Dogon is an unknown quantity but his French form was all on very testing ground. He holds entries on Sunday and Monday this coming weekend and they are in easier races. This would seem harsh on the horse pitching him in at this level. He has drifted out to 16/1 today, so perhaps he'll begin in an easier race than this one.

Thanks for the on topic input.

 

If Nelsons River improves for his pre xmas win , then surely he’s a live contender, seem to recall stable were confident, money came before the off , in running he was a big price , but flew up that hill

 

Eh? My point is that taking 2/1 about a Henderson horse when you’ve got one in the same ownership also entered isn’t my idea of value antepost. You might be right in terms of what happens at declarations. However we’ve seen many times that horses get pulled out from this yard despite market movements.

If you think taking 2s on a yard who pulled horses just last weekend with a big is value then good luck to you. I don’t and I will state it on whatever thread I like.

As said before I will comment on any thread about racing, it doesn’t bother me whose opinion I contradict or support.

Throw in that both horses aren’t that far clear on ratings and that I’d probably want to take them on (Alan King horse is one that also has the form in the book and the Skelton horse still could be anything).

 

The skelton horse that could be anything , is going to be a giraffe on the day , handy in a close finish

 

He was a horse the last time we saw him but he did jump like a giraffe to be fair.

 

On Official Ratings Adjali is 147 and Our Power is 136, while Nelson River doesn't have an official Rating yet.

Nelson River could well improve but he has already reached a good bit higher mark over hurdles than he was rated on the Flat.

Timeform have Adjali joint top in their Juvenile Hurdlers ratings. He is 141 on their figures. Nelson River is rated 128 by Timeform and Our Power is also rated 128 with them but he has the "p" suffix, meaning he is likely to improve. Nelson River does not get the "p" suffix.

I felt Nelson River and Our Power might be better trying to exploit a favourable mark in the Fred Winter and if they run well or win on Saturday that will blow their ratings to a less favourable mark.

Torpillo is my Triumph Horse and he is rated 137p by Timeform. Nigel Twiston-Davies seemed quite clear that the Haydock trial was the next race for Torpillo.

Adjali has had only two starts for Nicky Henderson and only run five times in his life. He is as open to improvement as anything in the race and probably more than some. His jump at the final flight last time was not the best but he went down by only a neck, with the pair in another parish to the remainder.

The Racing Post have this tighter than the other assessors but I think they fail to capture potential in their ratings at times.

The Skelton horse "Could be anything" but he needs to be very good to win this and "Could" has its limitations all too often.

Nicholls sent Zunayr out to win the Adonis on his first start and he looked special that day but he went to the Triumph Hurdle and stank the place out when one of the most fancied in the race.

What a Triumph Hurdle that was though. Often slated as a race for ruining young horses, the 2016 Triumph Hurdle had:-

Apples Jade, Footpad, Clan Des Obeaux, Sceau Royal and Frodon in the field

 

Now we’ve got the decs the race has some shape about it, and I think it’s pretty interesting that we’ve got nine entered and quite a bit of support for the second and third in the market. I was expecting the jolly to be shorter given the lack of the CPark horse too.

 

I backed the winner in this last year!

 

On the ****ing nose OddDy.

 

I am far more wary these days in believing the blue and red on oddschecker. A lot of movements in the markets are caused by tipping lines and online tipsters putting selections up and this can often skew the real value of the market. It is nigh on impossible to tell that a horse is being moved in the market by money from connections. Sustained movement over a period of time is usually the only true indicator but of course by then the value is usually gone.

Interesting where connections have chosen to run Adjali and Torpillo as you would think that their Triumph preferred horse would have the run at Cheltenham would you not?

 

Adjali should be fav for the triumph after this, 16s gone, some 14s left

 

I backed him months ago at 16's, he dropped to around 8's but then drifted back out again after being touched off last time.
I am not sure that he is better than his stablemate.

 

form with with best juvenile in france and the best in england, apparently he wasnt 100% at Chepstow and thats the best juvenile form around as it is