Cheltenham Festival [Day1] Latest Going Bookmaker Free Bet offers Race Stats 1:30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f 22 runners 2:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 15 runners 2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f 50 runners 3:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f 19 runners 4:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f 15 runners 4:50 Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f 49 runners 5:30 National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m6ff20 runners Other Meetings Southwell A/W 6 Races 1:45-5:00p.m. Naas N/H 7 Races 1:55-5:10p.m. Newcastle(E) A/W 7 Races 5:15-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
It doesn't mention it as far as I can see in the "Bookmaker's Special Offers" but Skybet are offering money back as cash up to £10 in the Supreme. Their odds will be skinnier if you take a price, and I'm not sure if they go BOG in this race, but effectively, it's a free bet!
After walking the track this morning Gordon Elliot confirms Envoi Allen will run in the Ballymore https://www.racingpost.com/news/che...he-ballymore-after-elliotts-track-walk/426773
Courtesy andrew smith @festivalracing 1:30 pm Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Class 1)(Grade 1) 2m 87y Abacadabras Allart Asterion Forlonge Berkshire Royal Captain Guinness Chantry House Edwardstone Elixir d’Ainay Fiddlerontheroof Hollow Sound Jabbaar Mario de Pail Shishkin Soviet Pimpernel Whatsnotoknow Heaven Help Us 2:10 pm Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Class 1)(Grade 1) 1m 7f 199yds Al Dancer Brewin'upastorm Cash Back Esprit du Large Fakir d'Oudairies Global Citizen Notebook Our Merlin Rouge Vif Maire Banrigh Put The Kettle On 3:30 pm Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Class 1)(Grade 1) Ballyandy Call Me Lord Cilaos Emery Coeur Sublime Cornerstone Lad Darasso Darver Star Fusil Raffles Gumball Le Patriote Not So Sleepy Pentland Hills Petit Mouchoir Sharjah Silver Streak Supasundae Epatante 4:10 pm Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Class 1) 2m 3f 200y Benie des Dieux Cap Soleil Crossgalesfamegame Desaray Girl Elfile Honeysuckle Lady Buttons Popong Roksana Stormy Ireland 5:30 pm National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Class 1)(Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y Anteros Carefully Selected Clondaw Cian Forza Milan Lamanver Pippin Lord du Mesnil Newtide Ocean Cove Ravenhill Redzor Smoking Gun Some Can Dance Springfield Fox The Hollow Ginge
Right I've done my write-ups for Tuesday now that we have had final decs. I may or may not change my mind based on ground, market moves and gut instinct but here goes : Supreme Novices Hurdle Shishkin is the lay of the week for me – his form is all style and no substance and I am at a total loss to work out how the handicapper has managed to rate him 153. I have this year’s renewal going to Ireland and there are 2 standout candidates from across the Irish Sea – Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge. The former has always looked a high class individual but was very keen in his early days – pulling early cost him any chance in the Champion Bumper last year where he travelled superbly into the race but didn’t get home. He is settling much better these days and has only been bested by Envoi Allen over hurdles, when the Cheveley Park superstar got first run and outstayed him in the Royal Bond (Champion Hurdle dark horse Darver Star well held in 3rd). He made no mistake over Christmas and has been kept fresh for this by Elliot. He has been my long-term fancy for the race but the Dublin Racing festival in February saw the emergence of Asterion Forlonge with a brilliant performance to smash up Easywork and Mt Leinster in the manner of a very, very good horse. He set a breakneck pace together with Easywork and then just powered away from him up the straight. I can see Paul Townend doing the same in the Supreme, bouncing out to make all and allowing his stamina to kick in up the hill – very much in the mould of Champagne Fever. Such tactics will suit Abacadabras, who will be happy to sit behind the strong pace and look to pounce late. The big question is whether he can pass the grey up the hill and I can’t answer that. I think my play will therefore be a reverse forecast on Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge. I can’t see anything else getting involved in the finish but the one I could see grabbing 3rd at a nice price is Mr Hendersons Allart. The Arkle I’ve been keen on Notebook for this ever since he beat Fakir D’Oudairies on Boxing Day and I think he is certainly the best of the Irish challengers. There is a slight concern about his temperament (was quite coltish before his last race) but I wouldn’t let that put me off him and Henry De Bromhead knows how to get one ready for Cheltenham. Victory for him here could launch a memorable week for Rachael Blackmore. One worth considering e/w is Dan Skelton’s mare Maire Banrigh who has been well placed to win 6 on the bounce and gets the 7lbs mares allowance. The Ultima Handicap Chase I managed to find the winner of the race 12 months ago, Beware The Bear, and his key piece of form for me was finishing 4th in the race the year before. Fast forward twelve months and I am again looking at the horse who finished 4th in last year’s renewal – Big River from Lucinda Russell’s yard. He is a thorough stayer and they tried to race him handy last year but unfortunately he made a mistake at the first and I think that knocked a bit of the wind out of his sails and he steadily dropped back. He was nearer last than first rounding the final bend but absolutely flew up the hill past beaten horses to grab 4th. He is a pound higher in the handicap this year but carries 3lbs less than last year and comes here in fine fettle after winning over 2m 7f at Kelso last time out. I think the ground could be more testing this year so hopefully a slower pace than last year can see him hold a decent position on the second circuit and come round the final bend within 10 or 12 lengths of the lead and fly up the hill. Saver bet on The Conditional who is a C&D winner and just 2lbs higher than when running a fine 2nd in the Hennessy. Champion Hurdle A wide-open renewal and I am happy with my 25/1 e/w ante post voucher on Coeur Sublime. The wind op needs to have brought him forward but I can’t forget the way he travelled in the Triumph Hurdle last year and there is a certain disparity between his price and Pentland Hills. I’m hopeful he can grab a place. The likely winner is Epatante and I would be tempted if she were to drift to 4/1. I think Pentland Hills will again travel and jump like a champ but will he finish it off? Mares Hurdle I’d love to see Honeysuckle win but Benie Des Dieux will be a tough nut to crack. One to just sit back and enjoy. Stormy Ireland can make it a 1-2-3 for the Irish horses. Novices Handicap Chase Just 6lbs covering the field in this ultra-competitive novices’ handicap chase and the key here is to try and find one who is unexposed and potentially well ahead of its mark. I think Hold The Note would have gone into many notebooks after running a cracker in a 3-mile Grade 2 at Warwick behind Two For Gold. He looked all over the winner that day but just got outstayed and the drop back in trip should suit. I think also an e/w saver on Jarvey’s Plate who keeps jumping off the page at me. National Hunt Chase I think you just have to go on official ratings here to whittle the field down and then pick whatever Jamie Codd rides . Willie and Patrick Mullins have the short-priced fav but 11/8 in a race like this is sheer madness. Jamie Codd rides Ravenhill for Gordon Elliot and has an obvious chance and I also think the Forum’s favourite Corinthian will have a great spin on Lord Du Mesnil. Possibly one for a dutching bet on Ravenhill and Lord Du Mesnil.
A good insightful write up Oddy, I will follow with interest then really concentrate on Wednesdays selections as I will be viewing through my guinness effected eyes on what I consider to be the best day out of the year. I would imagine it will be our last race meeting for a few weeks so we had all make the best of it!!
Asterion Forlonge my main bet on 1st day, Edwardstone ew Brewin'upastorm, Global Citizen ew Benie des Dieux but at the price i will double up with others. Undecided on the rest of the card.
Its an important week, its the week Oddy bets. I eagerly await the winning patents in a repeat of last years mauling of the bookies
It looks a year short on Class. The race of the meeting was shaping up to be the Champion Chase but Altior has fallen by the wayside now. The great hope for some was Honeysuckle, labelled Jump Racing's new Superstar on Radio 5 Live after winning the Irish Champion Hurdle but she is so good that she goes to the Mares race and will likely be beaten there anyway. Envoi Allen is the Hype horse of the year and could have won anything from the Champion Hurdle to the Royal Ascot Gold Cup if you believe the hype. He goes in the Ballymore but on an official mark of 156 he has not actually improved much from race to race on Racing Post performances of 149, 153 and 154 for his last three starts. I slightly question his OR of 156 but it's not as contentious as the OR of Solo, who seems crazy on 157, when the Racing Post have him on 145 and Timeform on 144p. The topic of potentially overrated horses brings us to Shishkin, who is 153 on official figures. It was an egg and spoon race he won last time and it was a stamina test of nearly two and a half miles. His previous race at Newbury is awful looking, with the only two runners to place since rated 115 and 102. This is a big step up for Shishkin and with Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge in the field it is crazy to see Shishkin at 11/4. I think he should be at least 5/1 and I imagine he will be a drifter. Abacadabras is solid enough but he lacks the excitement factor and didn't really impress me last time he ran. Asterion Forlonge seemed to make a statement last time out and he does have that sexy look about him but he's likely to start 2/1 or so and that is a bit tight. Chantry House is being backed but needs to step up by a stone to get involved here. For a bet to kick the meeting off I felt Fiddlerontheroof was a safe enough choice on 6/1 each-way SEVEN places with William Hill. The Tizzard horse is likeable enough and I would have got involved ante-post but for the fact that I felt he needed it soft and may not get it. Now that it is soft he seemed a no brainer at double the odds of Shishkin. Fiddlerontheroof is unexposed and will see it out strongly. I feel Shishkin is terrible value and a lay for sure. 1.30 Cheltenham Fiddlerontheroof 6/1 Each-way 7 places.
Shishkin is a superstar and he will win the Supreme comfortably, I wouldnt be interested in backing anything else on the first day. Asterion Forlonge will be 2nd and Chantry House 3rd.
What do we make of Berkshire Royal in the Supreme? I know Willie is a genius but 18 months off the track and never jumped a hurdle in public? Surely just a day out for the owners?
Now this is something. shouldnt be allowed, given all the restrictions they have for races like the NH Chase. Surely the danger of running it in such a race is heightened for the horse and others in the race?
Kildisart Thye have been playing with this horse all season in my opinion and it will turn up fit here and win.
I have for Tuesday: Supreme: Captain Guinness 16/1 e/w (Fly Smart 25/1 e/w NR) Arkle: Cash Back 6/1 win only Ultima: No bet Champion Hurdle: Darver Star 25/1 e/w (Eldorado Allen 66/1 NR) Mares Hurdle: BDD 4/5 (Triple with Altior 2/1 and A Plus Tard 9/4) Close Brothers: Champagne Court 25/1 e/w National Hunt Chase: Springfield Fox 80/1 e/w
My little stab at the racing today Glajou 2.20 Taunton 7/4 Lots of Luck 3.30 Taunton 15/8 Ruby Yeats 3.45 Plumpton 10/3 Mount Oliver 4.20 Plumpton 9/4 Driving Force 2.30 Kempton 5/4 Hopefully that yeilds a few tokens for tomorrow.