Off Topic Coronavirus

Worth a listen.

 

Ah! Thanks.

 

Woody, I listened to this, he seems to be a sincere and honest scientist. At least his wiki page is in German so I couldn’t find anything to write him off immediately, not understanding that language, which was irritating.

His first argument is, essentially, that the statistics have been confused because they only measure patients with symptoms requiring treatment, not the number of infections, and therefore it is false to project huge numbers of patients needing ICU care based in this analysis.

I think that, scientifically and in the realm of statistical methodology, he is probably right. You cannot make these predictions based on the available data. And yet, in the real world we know that intensive care facilities have already been overwhelmed in Italy and Spain, and are close to that point in London, and that protocols are in place in many nations to ration treatment. So the methodology can be flawed, but the reality is, er, real.

His second question, essentially arguing that you need a kind of clinical trial (except that he doesn’t want to blind it, so his methodology is also flawed) to judge the real seriousness of the virus, is also scientifically attractive. It also ignores the fact that, even if there are some deaths recorded wrongly (ie someone died with but not of COVID-19) thousands of deaths are linked to this particular virus. In the real, non scientific world, it is serious. And it is in addition to the usual seasonal pressures, not instead of them. The point about the lack of special measures during the last bad flu epidemic is a good one, but even though we were told that the NHS was stretched then, it wasn’t stretched to the point of having 4000 extra beds added in London alone to cope. This is tangibly different at least in terms of impact - whether this justifies the limitations placed on individuals is another, political question.

His third question seems to be deliberately obtuse - is it in the general community, if yes it’s pointless trying to stop it. But the measures aren’t in order to definitively stop it, they are to try to slow the spread to save the objectively real pressure on health services.

His fourth question is a variation on his second, are all these deaths due to COVID-19, or are people dying with the virus but not of it simply being recorded wrongly. Frankly, does it matter? The coffins lined up in Italian churches, the urns in Chinese funeral homes, the 1500 space mortuary being created at my local airport tell us that an extraordinarily unexpected number of deaths are occurring. His argument doesn’t lead to saying the measures to control the virus are wrong or unnecessary - or the reverse.

His final point is that you can’t compare what happens in different countries. And obviously there are environmental and demographic differences that back this up. But equally it is not an argument not to respond to the contagion in your own country. He could have used the example of Sweden, which has adopted an approach more in line with his preferences and probably has similar demographics to Germany. Unfortunately Sweden, with its looser approach, has 14 deaths per million population compared to Germany’s 8.

He has loads of interesting points, but I don’t find it a convincing argument for or against any particular course of action. The decisions that have been made in different countries might be seen to be wrong later, but they are, above all , political decisions because the science is not decisive, sadly, and for every bloke like this one there are other scientists arguing for more draconian measures to be in place for years.

The debate, it seems to me, is not about science, but about politics. We need politicians speaking up for alternative approaches to have the debate, and I don’t hear them.

It’s just occurred to me that all I have done here is what Lord Sumption has urged as all to do, on the assumption that we are all equally capable, of exercising my critical faculties in drawing common sense conclusions from the science. Yay.

 

Nz govts worst case scenario is 3 million infections and 28000 deaths

 

Day 6 of lockdown

58 new cases
647 cases in total
74 recovered
10 in hospital
2 in icu
Still only one death so far

The number of new cases has dropped three days in a row

 

Yes not doing too badly, work appears to have dried up so not going out much unless it’s to the shop for essentials, wife is bearing up ok she’s actually into week 4 now of not leaving house except to go in back garden, and like you hoping this is over before much longer, take care and keep the home fires burning so to speak.

 

Boom.....another night shift in the bag and soon to clock off.
Feel better than I did at the start of shift

 

All these ****ing graphs and charts are becoming ridiculous. Comparing to other countries is just false in my opinion and would only be relative if every country had officially tested the same amount of people for infection, not what day of the disease we are on. The only true statistic is the death rate and we dont truly know if %100 of the deaths were solely contributed to the virus. Testing is the key to everything if we are to compare and conclude and unfortunately we seem to be a tad unorganised on this.

 

Tell me why?

 

Spot on Bob
I may have had it already as might you or anyone else on here....unless we've been tested we just don't know
I'm becoming increasingly frustrated that our economic future is being screwed by mass panic that may well be largely unjustified. The consequences of what we are going through at the moment will already be with us for years, and could make austerity look like a walk in the park (Not that it was)

 

You can absolutely guarantee that whatever happens after all this, there will be some almighty judicial review..and I doubt will look pretty.

 

25% of doctors are off sick or isolating apparently and we are nowhere near the peak. The lack of testing for NHS staff and their families is criminal. It’s putting them at increased risk and stretching them even thinner so anyone having to go into hospital is presumably seeing their chances of coming out reduced too.

Just a couple of days ago the Deputy CMO said widescale testing like in those poverty-stricken countries South Korea and Germany wasn’t appropriate for rich countries like us. She’s not a politician so I don’t honestly get the logic there.

 

The basic issue seems to be that around the world there are some very different approaches being taken to tackle this

Currently no one can definitely say what the right approach should be, and even after the outbreak passes we may never know what the right approach should've been

But the economic devastation is increasingly alarming and represents a huge mortgage on all of our futures

I hope it is worth It, but I'm becoming increasingly uncertain about that

 

mmm there are many who are saying the same. Can you imagine after it's all over (although still bad) if the death toll was only 2-5K more than average? The cost to the country is mind-blowing. Loss of jobs, depression and general life may actually cause more deaths. It's a hard call i'm glad i don't have to make it.
It will definitely shake up the NHS. If the tories have been slack with it, then I can see major changes after... hopefully for the better. This virus has been a wake-up call and the way we do things will change. A good example will be working from home. I see a lot more of this in the future.

 

Ellers I would like to paraphrase what you said please

".......however nature has a funny way of doing things and I would never rule out what nature can do."

This is a perfect storm, that under different circumstances would be no more than a blip in someones else's world.
The world is too densely populated, travel across the world is too easy, communication and panic is easily transmitted, our health systems can no longer cope with all the diseases we can get...cancer, heart disease, infectious diseases, progressive decline diseases like dementia, Parkinsons etc. and our need to treat and cure has become too diverse.

In a less populated world without such brilliant communication and interconnectivity, people in a city in China, would perish, and a few would remain to move on. The disease would not escape very far. People in the opposite part of China, let alone the otherside of the world, would know nothing.

This has been going on for centuries, we just now know about it.
Bleak isn't it

 

When you look at humans in their original natural world they rarely lived more than 30+ years, diseases kept the population in check and, as you say, rarely moved beyond local boundaries. Whilst the Industrial Revolution and the advances in science and medicine have moved us way beyond our natural lifespan these things have disturbed the natural balance of the world and we are now reaping the cost of what we have done. There's no easy fix...

 

I hreard today of a death of a whole family and their dog in the midlands, neighbours said they were worried about Corononavirus.
Treated as murder, but the police are not looking for anyone in connection.

This is so so sad.
Please please stay safe and in contact out there.

We will get through this

 

I read there have been nine Corona-related murders including these. All these couples and families forced to spend an indefinite period together I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t get exponentially worse.