Coronavirus: Please use this thread for all COVID19 talk!

Is China lying about the number of dead? - Tough one.

What I’ll say in their defence (if that’s the right word), is that when the government says ‘jump’, the people f*cking jump. And they do it because of an almost obsessive national pride, the desire to fall in line with rest of society, and now because they have this Orwellian social credit system in place (rack up too many points, and you can’t even buy train tickets, your internet will be cut off, your kids will be stopped from attending certain schools, and even, so I’ve heard, you will be banned from keeping a bloody pet in your house!). ‘Lockdown’ in China means lockdown. None of this, “I’ll walk the dogs, go for a run, take some biscuits to auntie Nora, and then go to M&S for some toilet rolls” type of Western ‘lockdown’. And it doesn’t require streets lined with soldiers to enforce it in China. The fear of shaming yourself and your family is enough.

I teach 60-70 Chinese students online every week. So I see them living their daily lives, and some of these guys literally have not stepped out of the front door for almost three months.

Now, what makes me suspicious of the numbers, is that the Chinese government is so damn paranoid of losing control of the people, that their propaganda machine is phenomenal. It is - make no mistake - the single most dangerous weapon in the world right now. And this propaganda didn’t just start this year, last year, or at any other specific time. It’s always been there. It is so ingrained in the average Chinese person’s thinking, that they do not even question it. What the Chinese state-controlled media reports, is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but. If the numbers of dead in Wuhan were so significant that it would have risked causing social unrest in China, then those numbers would NOT have been reported. That’s just how it is. And whistleblowers in China either disappear or end up dead.

My honest opinion; I think the government there have told lies about the numbers, for sure. But, at the same time, their system of rule (whether right or wrong ethically), is perfectly suited to this type of situation.

 

It's the opposite, Beddy. Your tipoff there is "all in hospital"; that's because, owing to testing shortages, only confirmed cases in hospitals are being counted immediately. That misses an awful lot of people who have died at home, or in nursing homes.

And "with it not from it" is like saying that the victim of a gunshot wound died from exsanguination, not the bullet. Yes, the loss of blood did it, but the bullet caused the loss of blood. Again, the numbers are incredibly stark if you compare the number of people dying of all causes to the rate of death at a normal time. Is it pure coincidence that, at a time that COVID is sweeping across the globe, there's a completely unprecedented surge in the number of people dying, and that surge has nothing much to do with COVID? Absent another explanation (and I have not heard one) that just isn't remotely plausible.

 

Still waiting for care home death figures and how about those that die because of lack of resources due to C 19? All part of the toll. Schad's reply goes into more detail.

 

Hang on they actually admit some of those people would possibly have died anyway coved 19 or not. I actually got the info from a person who is responsible for counting the numbers of deaths at a hospital. I’m not saying there is not more deaths from coved 19 outside of the hospital and agree that the death figures overall is probably more. Some of those people that died in hospital though were not actually admitted because of the virus. In my sources hospital roughly 20% so I’m told. All though it does vary agreed.

 

We are all going to do at some time covid 19 will just make it a little sooner than we would have liked.

 

Sorry but that is complete nonsense Beddy. The daily death toll figures are all people who are in hospital, tested positive for COVID-19, and died of it. Those are the only figures available, because hardly anyone who isn’t in hospital has been tested. How on Earth do you explain why nearly 1,000 people more are dying in hospital every day than normal at this time of year if it isn’t because of the virus?

And as you say, there is no count whatsoever of the numbers outside of hospital, which could be anything from none at all to very high indeed.

 

The other statistic, while we’re on the subject, is the number of preventable deaths because much of the routine day-to-day NHS is on lockdown. People not getting chemotherapy or other cancer treatments, diabetes clinics not being held, and so on and so on.

 

I saw a video, maybe 2 weeks ago, where it pointed out that many deaths were now being reported as “having died whilst having covid-19” rather than saying “from covid-19”.
The video was pointing out how it was a cynical attempt to muddy the waters, and try to massage the true figures.
I am sure, once the worst of the crisis is over, the media will go full out to distort the figures by using the same “logic” of “well, they were going to die anyway”.
At the moment my wife is doing well in her ongoing fight against cancer, but we both know that it will, one day, beat her.
If she contracts covid-19, and needs hospitalisation, that “one day” will move a lot closer because she may not be given the same level of support as other people that don’t have underlying health issues.
I read this morning, of a 16 year old boy, fighting cancer, who was sent a Do Not Resuscitate form, by his GP surgery. Sixteen ffs.

 

Again, though, that's why you compare the number of deaths from all causes to the normal number of deaths from all causes. That provides a much more thorough understanding of who would/wouldn't have died anyway. I refer you back to the chart I posted for New York City, which is not atypical by all indications compared to other severely-affected areas. More than 5000 people more than average died in a month. With the exception of 9/11, no other month saw more than a few hundred deaths above the baseline. We're so far outside the range of normal that there is no rational conclusion beyond that COVID is resulting in the deaths of an awfully large number of people who otherwise would not be dead.

 

I know it’s in the US, but how can he get away with that?

 

I apologised for the politics/Covid 19 crossover ......but I think it’s disgusting how someone got intel on this terrible virus .....then makes money out of it

 

I wouldn't normally post this sort of thing here, but it is very much Covid-19 related. However, this is middle America, and I'd like you to see an example of how the people deal with the disease there. You may have to pick your jaw up off the floor. The delusion is profound:

 

Unfortunately there are similar examples worldwide, nothing can be done besides publicity and ridicule. You could put a complete hour of these together featuring all affected countries.

 

The really great litmus test for how the UK has handled it, is to look across at ireland.

They have a very similar number of ICU beds per person to us.

Yet our death rate is almost 2.5 times higher than theirs (14.81 deaths per 100k vs. 6.5 deaths per 100k). They have had 320 deaths vs. our 9,675.

The big difference?

Two weeks. They cancelled paddy's day and we let everything carry on as normal.

 

Of course there are people worldwide with similar levels of ignorance. What is perhaps sometimes unexpected is that in a relatively sophisticated society like the USA, the level of ignorance can be staggering. Clearly, this reporter flagged down one woman who was driving away after attending church, but he could probably have got very similar answers from all the other churchgoers [and he probably did].
It's the "I know better" attitude that gets me. Although the USA has been lax in its response to this virus, with the leadership displaying a new level of incompetence, the message has been to stay indoors and not to congregate. This is borne of evidence and good common sense advice from medical professionals. Yet this person, and millions like her will say, "I know better". Fine. But borne out of what? Fantasy? Prejudice? Where are the facts that support this attitude? Where is the common sense?

Her faith may end up getting her killed. Then what? Martyrdom?

 

You can't apply logic to Fundies. Nothing surprises me anymore when faith is involved.

 

That is my fundamental problem RJ. I try to approach every important question from a first principals/evidence based/logical perspective. Then you get attitudes displayed like that churchgoer and I'm floored.

 

RIP Tim Brooke Taylor from this awful disease

 

Oh no! Another legend gone!
RIP Tim

 

Boris discharged from hospital.