Daily Racing Thread Saturday 17th. July 2021

4/1 Fav in most places now. That was a load of old crap she beat today though. It's just as well she was in that Oaks today or we would have been stuck with a 104 rated filly lifting a Classic.

There is simply no opposition. Indigo Girl was rated a prospect for this season but has been AWOL. She is entered in a Group 3 next Friday but that is over a mile and you might have thought she was ready for 10F now. Interesting on how the market will see her chances if she does line up. Michael Stoute's Lights On would seem and obvious one to worry about in the Valiant Stakes at Ascot.

 

Only Gubbass won. Poor.

 

My opinion is based more on the Epsom performance, today was just a public gallop confirming what we expected, but even taking into account the placed horses being only mid 100s, the distance shes winning by is putting her at 120+ in 2nd gear. The 2nd 3rd and 4th today all have world class middle distance pedigrees and they might as well be a different species. I think when they are winning by such a big distance you can overlook the lower ratings of the placed horses.

Party House and Willow have run to the pound with 6L between them in the Naas trial and 6L again today. Nicest and Divinely both backed up their close finish in the RIbbledale with little between them again so the form looks extremely solid in terms of the ratings from 2nd to 5th, no matter which horse you pick to rate the race around, everything points to Snowfall running to at least 120. Divinely will likely get moved up to 105/106.

I said a while ago that Snowfall was by far the better bet for the Arc at 11/2 compared to Love at the same price because she goes on any ground, while Love is ground dependant and unlikely to turn up on soft. I think now the only way Love even shows up in the Arc is if Snowfall gets injured, when you have such a standout candidate it makes sense to use Love elsewhere, possibly Ascot for the Champions Stakes or the FIllies race at 12f.

The two best colts appear to be Hurricane Lane and Adayar, both of them are pretty dour mud lovers and id fancy Snowfall strongly to beat them for a turn of foot in an Arc. I didnt think Hurricane Lane improved on his Irish Derby win in France as many have suggested including Buick. St Marks Basillica imo has no chance at 12f and id be looking to oppose him at short odds after his overrated Eclipse win. As for the older horses, something would need to run close to 130 to give Snowfall the weight and I cant see anything of that standard around this season.

 

I thought Real World was impressive today. The acceleration produced after being held in was rapid. I don't think I would be in a hurry to bet against that one

 

I agree regarding Hurricane Lane. The Grand Prix De Paris was his to win and Wordsworth/Alenquer are not in the same class as him. Hurricane Lane did not set a new distance in class between himself and Wordsworth in France. The jockey reckoned Hurricane Lane is getting faster but that seems hard to believe of a colt who had looked pretty dour in all his races thus far. I would imagine Alenquer and Wordsworth head to the St Leger now.

Snowfall has been remarkable this season and coming into the season she would have been a colossal price to land Epsom and Irish Oaks, yet she has triumphed by miles in each.

 

Princess Nadia held up her end of the deal with a comfortable length win eased down. Sadly Chipotle didn't manage to set up the 9.5/1 double. A frustrating day, well done to everyone who got winners on a busy day with too much choice.

 

Hopefully, Happygolucky will head in that direction and then be campaigned with the CGC in mind. Hope they, at the very least, give the horse the chance to prove if he is up to that level rather than putting him away until the release of the Grand National weights and aiming solely at one race in term 2021/22.

 

For a couple of months I have a bet on the Grand National 50/1 e/w.

 

I fell a bit in love with this horse in the second half of last term and the fact I managed to do so with him trained by Kim 'Ivy' Bailey shows how much I both rate and admire Happygolucky! Just hope he gets the chance to compete at the very highest level during 2021/22 because I think him capable of scaling the heights to the very top.