Daily Racing Thread Saturday 11th. September 2021

Saturday's Meetings

Leopardstown
Flat 8 Races 12:40-4:20p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 7 Races 1:15-5:10p.m.
Chester
Flat 7 Races 1:30-4:55p.m.
Bath
Flat 7 Races 1:35-5:00p.m.
Lingfield
A/W 7 Races 3:05-6:25p.m.
Musselburgh(E)
Flat 8 Races 3:30-7:20p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

I didnt want to start the racing thread off with such a solemn thing but the day that shook the world, 9/11, wow has it really been 20 years since that horrendous day...!! I remember watching it as i was off from work that week and after i got a call from my mother saying turn Sky News on now, then literally 10 seconds later after turning it on the 2nd plane hit the tower...

I suppose with what is still going on in the world today, has anything actually changed, i suppose not, and i suppose it never will...

 

Twenty years have gone so fast mate, I suspect not for the families and loved ones for those lost. Sad, sad times. Lets just hope we never get to witness this again

 

I was watching what I thought was Diagnosis Murder on BBC 1 with the sound turned off. A mate called at the door and we were just talking about how the budget for the Dick Van Dyck show must have been upped somewhat when it became clear this was something live and very serious. It would be five hours later before I got off the couch and it is the most tragic and terrifying incident I can recall. Of course, if you listen to some people, it was the USA that blew their own building up and murdered their own people.

Anyway, on to the St Leger and it is yet another poor renewal. It's a penalty kick for Hurricane Lane on ratings and most people will be thinking about who will be second.

I can't warm to Mojo Star. Epsom form is sometimes unreliable, so although he was a place ahead of Hurricane Lane there, I doubt there is any other track where he would finish ahead of today's favourite. Finally shed his maiden tag last time but that was like an egg and spoon race without an egg. His winning rating on RPR for that race was actually the lowest of his career.

I am surprised High Definition was supplemented for this because his last two runs have been woeful. Not quite as bad last time but he is on the decline and his dropped rating of 110 still fails to chime with a 102 RPR last time he ran. Frankie gets the ride and I am not sure it is because Ryan Moore is riding St Mark's Basilica in Ireland. I reckon he would have been there even if it were only to watch snail racing in the hope of seeing something faster. Don't get me wrong, I have an adeg ante post ticket on High Definition for the St Leger at 20/1 placed in the knowledge that he would likely have to under-perform in order to pitch up for the race but I hadn't imagined it would have been this severe an under performance. I'll take it if he wins but I can't see it happening at all.

I was almost on Ottoman Emperor last time but baulked at the last minute. The Murtagh colt has been progressing but he just held off Sir Lucan last time and I am not sure about the longer trip today.

Interpretation is a progressive sort for Aidan and looks likely to be fine with this trip.

I decided to back Interpretation to win at 11/1 and couldn't resist a tiny each-way on Fernando Vichi, who has form with Interpretation. I feel the horse is wildly over-priced in a race where some may get carried away and burn out. A wee bet at 80/1 for the crack.

3.35 Doncaster Interpretation 11/1 win, Fernando Vichi 80/1 EW

What a waste of 30p I hear my Wife cry!!

 

Adrian Wall from Myracing has tipped the same two. I'd cashout now. They haven't produced any decent tips consistently for a couple of years on there.

 

Sorry its a football bet but Ronaldo anytime goalscorer 2/1 skybet/boyles ports seems fair enough. Harry Kane a shot on target @evens skybet. Are these "buying" money bets.......

Best of luck all. Re the horses well it'll be 3 short price favs at each meet.

 

Hills doing the same Ronaldo bet too if you want to top up

 

Doncaster
13,45 Beyond Equal 25/1 e/w with bet365 and Lads five places, PP and betfair 22/1 six places

Leopardstown
15,45 Shoshone Warrior 16/1 e/w bet365 five places, 14/1 PP and betfair six places
Second in this race last year.

 

The St Leger day card looks a serious disappointment. In the Champagne Stakes, the Dettori/Gosden factor sees Reach For The Moon long odds on because his chief opponent Lusail has a 3lb penalty despite there being just 1lb between them on ratings. In the Park Stakes, the main opponent to Laneqash appears to be the owner’s other runner, Danyah stepping up from handicapping to a Group 2.

I missed the chance to be on the St Leger favourite Hurricane Lane ante post at a decent price because I listened to the trainer after the Derby. At that time he said that he had considered Adayar to be their St Leger horse – so the wrong one won the Derby? So Adayar will be stood in his box (misses tomorrow’s Prix Niel) and I expect William Buick to collect the St Leger as it is easy to pick holes in the form of his rivals and I would prefer Ottoman Emperor for the forecast as it appears to be the late improver.

At least over at Leopardstown there are some decent sized fields, except for the Irish Champion Stakes where nearly a million Euros of prize money has attracted just four runners. Patrick Sarsfield is going to pick up at least €50,000 just for lining up. My guess is that Tarnawa targeted this rather than the Prix Vermeille (which she won last year) because of the distance. Obviously not enough money on offer for the other horses that will be stood in their boxes this afternoon...

In the Matron Stakes, 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth should take all the beating but if one is to do it, last year’s winner Champers Elysees looks the most likely as this is a big step up in grade for hat-trick seeking Pearls Galore.

The Champions Juvenile Stakes looks like the usual clash of the potential and the form with half the field trained by the O’Brien family. In the absence of Aidan’s leading two year old Point Lonsdale (runs tomorrow), I am going with Joseph’s MARITIME WINGS – the horse that chased him home (at a respectable distance) in the Futurity – as his main rival seems to be the stable’s other runner Buckaroo whilst Ryan Moore is on maiden Stone Age.

 

Scoop 6/Ew Lucky 63/Acca:

1:45 Donny - My Wagyu 11/1 (6 places)
2:00 Chester - Alounak 7/4
2:35 Chester - Au Clair Da Lune 13/2 (4 places)
3:35 Donny - Hurricane Lane 5/6
3:45 Leopardstown - Ciel D'afrique 11/1 (6 places)
4:20 Leopardstown - Bucky Larson 11/1 (5 places)

Extra places obviously only for the lucky 63/acca not scoop 6.

3:00 Donny - Danyah 9/4 is my NAP of the day.

If the Leger wasn't a scoop 6 race i probably wouldn't be touching it. Looks pretty poor and pretty straightforward for the odds on favourite. Sir Lucan looked the interesting one for me from the AOB battalion at around 20s or 9s without the fav but no interesting enough for me to depart with any cash.

Good luck all who are playing today

 

Never heard of the guy. Mind you, someone should be contacting HIM and advising a cash out because I have tipped his two.

Now that the rains have come, I think it opens it up a bit for the outsiders. There will be no hiding place for the non-stayers.

 

I can't see Ronaldo starting today. Mind, he'll only need to be on the pitch for 5 minutes to score against those fat greggs munching, horse punching, shop shouting chavy bastards.

My TV selections today:
Treacherous (E/W)

Tarnawa and Danyah (Win Double)

 

The Portland has cut up a bit with the change in the going. I was with Hurricane Ivor for forecast purposes last time and he ran well. He seems more consistent for William Haggas than when he raced in France and he has won on soft. I also like Digital's profile. Not many miles on the clock and trainer Kevin Ryan is no sttanger to success in this race, once running up three in a row.

1.45 Doncaster Hurricane Ivor 6/1 and Digital 16/1 EW Six Places. RF the pair

Good luck if playing the somewhat reduced cavalry charge.

 

In the opener at the Curragh, Corviglia looks to hold a solid claim and at 5/2 is a reasonable price. I though Lullaby ran a belter on debut though, when 4th and just a head behind a 90 rated filly in third. By Galileo, she can be expected to improve a chunk and I decided to trust the impression that she will make up into a decent filly. I had a tiny speculation on her for the Fillies Mile at 50/1 but she drops to 7F today, which is perhaps odd after starting at a mile.

12.40 Leopardstown Lullaby 4/1 and saver FC with Corviglia

In the following race I was drawn to Absolute Ruler. I thought Donnacha's colt made an excellent start to his career and he could be anything. I have been with Buckaroo but Joseph also runs Maritime Wings, perhaps suggesting there isn't much between them. I decided to stay with Absolute Ruler at 5/1.

1.10 Leopardstown Absolute Ruler 5/1

 

it might be a fairly poor St Leger card but the racing today is still a lot better than it has been over the past month.

I think today might just be the day for Hurricane Ivor to get a win, i am hoping that the Queen has a really good 2 year old in Reach for the Moon.
Win today and all the talk will be of Epsom next year.

The 3.00 looks very competitive. Jim Crowley has picked Laneqash over Danyah, but Dbai might well be better than them both.
Hurricane Lane will probably win the big one, but Mojo Star has already beaten him in the Derby, has not done much wrong this season and is a good each way alternative along with Interpretation, ridden by Hollie Doyle.

William Buick has had a good week in Doncaster and I expect him to win one or both of the last two races today aboard Living Legend and Royal Fleet.

I never like to predict Irish racing as I always get their winners wrong, but there look to be some superstars in action over there today.

All about the tennis for me today though from a betting point of view. I watched Emma Raducanu in her first round match at the US Open and was so impressed that i stuck £5 on her at 80/1. Didn't really think she would make the final!!

 

I had a look at Fernando Vichi earlier on in the B365 ew extra market, but the odds plummet to 28/1 for 5 places, so I took a little bit at 40/1 for 4 and a bit at 70/1 for 3. Fingers crossed sir.

 

Feeble effort from Lullaby. Sights lowered back to maiden company after that effort.