Aski's Arithmetical Alternative Accords (aka The Weekend Debate)

Ok now I know some of you will have just clicked on this without realising who published this thread, so this is your chance to leave now.

Yes I understand that you just clicked it because it was a new post and all that, but now that you realised it's me that posted it, and you don't do numbers. It's all fine I totally understand. I'm weird

For those of you who clicked on this knowing that I had posted this, then I have no sympathy if you are bored out of your skull. We all know I do numbers, so you only have yourself to blame, for clicking here and thinking this thread will not be numbers, I would've thought it was obvious

For those who 1) are still here and 2) knew what you were getting into when you clicked this, then prepared to be numbed senseless ( hey it's what you came for after all ) or 3) you woke up in the middle of the night and are looking for a way to fall back to sleep

So here it is Askis totally unriveting review of the goals scored in the Championship this season (hmm is there a word limit on threads, because I've just checked and there is a 3 page word document to follow, this is your last warning )

Also I know you are out there somewhere reading Jamster, so I hope you appreciate the alliterative thread title


A numerical review of the 2023/24 Championship goals scored


None of this is meant to convince anyone that Bamford is better than your granny in the 6yard box, or that your cries of shoot when we have the ball on the halfway line are not valid


First we need to start with some averages to put everything in perspective.



Shots at Goal


Unsurprisingly 5 of the clubs that finished in the top 6 had the most shots at goal. Only Ipswich and Southampton managed more than 700 shots, although we were a close 3rd with 696 shots. Sunderland were the 4th highest shot takers with 666, although this was probably a curse given their final league position of 16th. WBA who finished 5th in the league, only managed a total of 533 shots, so 40 below the league average. Millwall, Preston and Rotherham all managed to have less than 500 shots in total.


Goals Scored


No real big surprises in respect of goals scored, 5 of the top 6 in the league were also in the top 6 for most goals scored. 3 clubs managed to score more than 80 goals, these being Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton (not including own goals scored in their favour, which is why we only have a total of 78). Rotherham were the only side that failed to score at least 40 goals. More of a surprise is Sunderland who despite having 200 more shots than Preston in total ( 666 vs 429), scored 2 less goals than Preston (51 vs 53)


Cardiff forced teams to score the most own goals with 5 goals benefitting them, with Ipswich and Coventry both benefitting from 4 own goals. Rotherham, Watford and Hull had no own goals scored in their favour.

Converting Chances


Leicester were the best of converting their shots into goals, scoring with 13.33% of their shots. Stoke and Sunderland only managed to convert less than 8% of their shots into goal. Our conversion ratio was 11.21% which was the 7th best


Chances and Goals From Specific Parts of the Pitch


6 Yard Box


No real surprises with the teams that had the most and least number of chances within the 6 yard area or the number of goals scored from those positions. However Watford were the only team to score with 40% of their chances from inside the 6 yard box, scoring 14 goals from 35 shots. By contrast Blackburn were only able to convert 14.29% of their chances from within the 6 yard area, scoring 5 goals from 35 shots. Sunderland and Norwich were the only other 2 teams that converted more than 35% of their chances within the 6 yard area. We had the 2nd most number of chances within the 6 yard area behind Southampton, and were also joint second in the number of goals scored within that part of the pitch, again behind Southampton, who scored 21 goals compared to our 20.


22.55% of all the goals scored in this seasons Championship were from within the 6 yard box, with on average 1 goal being scored every 3 chances.


Individual Players


Adam Armstrong of Southampton had the most chances to score within the 6 yard area, however he only managed to score with 3 of his 23 chances. Wright of Coventry, Vardy of Leicester and Bamford all had 13 chances to score within the 6 yard area. Wright managed to score 3 of his chances, whilst both Bamford and Vardy scored with 6 of theirs. Rajovic of Watford had the best return scoring 7 goals within the 6 yard area from 9 chances. A special mention to Dan James who scored 4 goals from his 5 chances within the 6 yard area. ( Just an added note when I refer to chance, I mean an actual shot. Thus miskicks and air shots aren't included in the above, for those who may want to say PB missed more than what I am stating )



Within the Penalty Area



On average 63% of all the goals scored in the Championship were from within the penalty area with 1 goal being scored every 8.5 chances.


The top 4 in the league all managed to have over 400 shots within the penalty area, followed by Middlesborough and Sunderland on 378 and 360 respectively. 7 teams managed to have less than 300 shots within the penalty area, including 5th place finishers WBA, with a total of 284 shots, one less than Sheffield Wednesday.


Blackburn were the main surprise when it came to goals scored within the penalty area, being joint fifth on 48 with Middlesborough, beaten only by the teams who finished in the first 4 places. Over 80% of Blackburn’s goals were scored within the 18 yard box, with Bristol City and Leicester being the next closest at 71% and 70%.


Preston however were the best at converting their shots within the penalty area into goal, scoring 15.48% of their chances, just ahead of Leicester. Sunderland had 360 shots from within the penalty area, and scored 25 times for a measly conversion of under 7%. We were purely average scoring 52 goals from 438 shots, a return of just under 12%, or a goal scored every 8.4 shots.





Individual Players


Szmodics of Blackburn and Adam Armstrong of Southampton had the same number of chances within the penalty area at 94, with Szmodics winning that battle having scored 21 goals compared to Armstrong’s 18. Conor Chaplin of Ipswich had the next most number of chances with 83, in which he managed to score 12 times. Next were Rutter and Summerville, with 81 and 80 chances respectively. Rutter managed to score 6 of these, whilst Summerville had an excellent return of 17, although Szomdics takes the crown with a conversion ratio of 22.3% compared to Summerville’s 21.25%


Outside of Penalty Area


On average 14% of goals scored this season were shots from outside of the penalty area, with 1 goal being scored every 25 chances


Sunderland, Watford, Hull and Plymouth all had over 250 shots from outside of the penalty area. Leicester had 200 shots and we had 2 less than them with 198 shots. The average amount of shots clubs took was 200


Watford scored the most goals outside of the penalty area, a total of 17. Sunderland and Hull were next both on 13 goals. We were one of 9 clubs that scored 6 goals or less. Rotherham had 58 less shots from outside of the penalty area than ourselves and scored 9 goals. 6 teams failed to score with less than 2% of their shots from outside of the penalty area. We scored with just over 3% of our shots from outside the penalty area. 8% of our total goals were scored from outside the penalty box.


Individual Players


Whittaker of Plymouth scored the most goals outside the penalty area, with 6 from 103 shots, although Jack Clarke of Sunderland had the better ratio, with 5 goals from 39 shots. Szmodics of Blackburn was next best with 4 goals from 45 shots, followed by Sara of Norwich with 4 goals from 68 shots. Dan James once again probably had the best return for us, scoring 3 times from his 28 shots. Summerville, Piroe and Rutter each had more than 25 shots from outside the penalty area (101 shots between those 3 players) and managed to score in total 2 goals. Thus those three had nearly 4 times as many shots as Dan James and scored one less than him. Is it any wonder Farke doesn't encourage long range shooting



And for those who made it all the way here, then you get the special treat of actually seeing a table of numbers

 

So to summarise, get in the box and shoot would be the most productive tactic.
Excellent stuff Aski, I also love numbers.

 

I love numbers too, but not when they torture me!

 

Yup but don't be surprised when your star striker fails to score from 6 yards out

 

Good job I didn't post the midfield and defensive analysis at the same time. Even I thought that would be too much for people to take without their heads exploding

 

I liked all of that thanks Aski and Estes concise summary

 

Este was only able to provide such a concise summary only after all the data was made available for him to analyse

 

Bloody hell

 

Always a gap between what the fans think and what really happened. Thanks for the stats.

 

Don't worry Eire , parts 2 and 3 will follow in due course

 

The thing is, no matter how much I like stats, it is sometimes difficult to get pass the "eye sight" test.

Those games when we are trying little intricate moves to work the ball into the box and it fails time after time and I'm sat shouting there "will one of you just shoot for ****s sake". Logic goes out the window

 

I thought you'd have shouted "Will one of you just shoot for ****s sake, your scoring chance goes up to 13.8754%!"

 

Now now don't be silly. Getting a footballer to understand numbers, never mind statistics and percentages is nigh upon impossible.

 

S'what their agents are for. One, two, three, lots, lots more, lots for me.

 

Unless of course the number is preceded by a £ sign

 

I started reading this with all the best will in the world, only to realise after the first paragraph, it's better than sleeping pills. I was sound until the wife woke me and asked what was I reading as it worked so well. She thanks you very much and swears she will never have insomnia again so long as there are helpful people like you in the world. P.S. she's looking forward to parts 2 and 3 with anticipation, and praises you to all her friends, you are a guru for all insomniacs. Can't wait for Leeds university to give you a lecture's salary along with a PhD.

 

You missed out on the deluxe service though Rog, in that you only read it.

If you had heard me reading it in my monotone voice, then you would have slept for days

 

Bugger can you send me a recording i can use in bed you genius, i never thought of that we could go partners (doc and rogs) insomniac cure guaranteed to work. At a very modest cost, anarl

I can see it now with our own company car

please log in to view this image

 

Slight issue with your idea though Rog, I'm not Doc

 

YOU WILL BE, A SPECIALIST, practising sleep disorders, don't worry we will make a fortune