I have just looked at our remaining fixtures and estimated the amount of points we will pick up for the rest of the season. I came to a possible 16 more points we will pick up. As I don't think we will get much from Charlton, sheff utd, sheff wed ect. This would put us on 42 points at the end of the season . Is it enough ?
42 points.... last season that would put us 23rd 2009/2010 that would put us 23rd 2008/2009 that would put us 22nd 2007/2008 that would put us 22nd 2006/2007 that would put us 22nd so basically that is nowhere near enough...its also very close at the bottom this season as there is no team cut adrift at the bottom so we will need more points than this. i suspect we need 50 points
52 points and a good GD normally guarantees safety from L1 relegation. Anything down to as low as 50 points and a good GD sometimes is safe. 49-48 points you will be relying on other outcomes on the final day. 47 or less, goodbye.
Cheers BRB. So folks, having amassed the grand total of 26 points from 29 games, all we need is another 26 from the remaining 17 games. Sounds like a rather formidable task but then that applies to a similar degree to all teams occupying the bottom 7 places and, of course, some above that may have a bad run putting them in similar trouble. No of points secured in last 10 matches (Bottom 7 teams) [TABLE="width: 173"] [TR] [TD]Yeovil[/TD] [TD="align: right"]11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD="align: right"]10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wycombe[/TD] [TD="align: right"]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD="align: right"]10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scun-thorpe[/TD] [TD="align: right"]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD="align: right"]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chesterfield[/TD] [TD="align: right"]10[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] At this rate, none of the bottom 7 will amass anything like 52 points so maybe this year will buck the trend. ****ing hope so.
last season, 48 needed to stay up 2009/10 , 50 points and a good goal difference needed 2008/09, 50 points needed 2007/08, 50 points needed 2006/07, 48 points needed 2005/06, 51 points needed 2004/05, 51 and a good goal difference needed
Cheers Jose. On that basis we look doomed. What I can't get my head round is that, at present, all the 7 bottom teams also look doomed on that basis. Were there so many teams in this predicament at this stage last year?
8 wins (24pts), from 17 games, should be enough. Bear in mind that the clubs around us need about the same. So long as we win games against the teams around us, and not get despondent when we get beat by teams well up the league, we can (and in my opinion will) do it.
At a similar stage last year: Notts County P27 Pts35 Plymouth P31 Pts33 Swindon P31 Pts 31 Walsall P31 Pts 30 Bristol R P27 Pts29 Daggers P28 Pts 28 Finished: Notts Country P46 Pts 50 Walsall P46 Pts 48 Daggers P46 Pts 47 Bristol R P46 Pts45 Plymouth P46 Pts 42 Swindon P46 Pts 41 That suggests that most were slightly ahead of where the bottom 6 are now, assuming the current bottom 6 don't win/draw most of their next 2-3 games. It suggests that none of those teams exactly hit any form towards the end! The best being Walsall's 18 points in 15 games so maybe a lower points haul will keep a team up!
I would also go with 50 points for safety this season -given that there are currently seven teams in the mix - effectively that means 8 wins to get us from 26 to 50 points. We are now winning against the teams in the lower half of the league and looking at the fixtures we do have enough 'winable' games to pull it off.. but it will be close. We can look foward to more edge of the seat games like yesterday and the big question will be can our goal scorers carry the defence.
How many points do you lot think we will pick up though looking at the fixtures. I know it's difficult to estimate but want to know if you are around the same figure as me ?
