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Bustino's Breeding Bits

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Bustino74, Aug 14, 2018.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    No Nay Never ended up First Season Sire Champion winning from Charm Spirit and Kingman (persistent late run). I know 2yos are still running but that’s how it’s framed.
    Incredibly, to my mind, Coolmore have increased his fee to 100,000€, a fourfold increase. Whilst he may get better mares now it would concern me that his foals were only making 100,000€ this week!
    Kingman stands at £75,000. He was never going to be FSS champion so did well.
     
    #21
  2. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    Got to say I was a bit surprised by the eye-popping increase to NoNayNever's fee. I'm sure some mare owners are looking elsewhere after that hike
     
    #22
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  3. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    I don't know too much about the breeding scene Jana. Have you any idea how many of the horse's services Coolmore will use themselves? They must have heaps of mares spread across the globe, so I suppose they could shuttle him. It would be interesting to know just how many of this past season services went to private interests.
     
    #23
  4. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Hi, Cyc. I don't know much about this breeding activity, either. Not the four-legged variety, anyway.
    However, I did work with an engineer from Wolverhampton who was one of 23 offspring. Can you imagine that! (true story, by the way).
    I once asked him what his mother did in her spare time and he just laughed and said..."What spare time."
    Mind you, the guy had five children by his wife (he lived with her during the week) and four by his mistress (lived with her at weekends).
    And we think Galileo is a success story!
    They say if you live long enough, you'll see everything. :eek:
     
    #24
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  5. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Coolmore has some of Europe's best broodmares, but have a slight problem in that a large majority of them are by Galileo. Scat Daddy (No Nay Never's sire) looked a good fit (having only a 4 x 5 inbreeding to Northern Dancer)) but he died. No Nay Never has a 4 x 5 x 5 input of Northern Dancer so would not be considered as imparting close inbreeding. So I’m sure No Nay Never will be popular in the Coolmore breeding sheds.
     
    #25
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  6. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Bustino, could you please explain what 4x5 and 4x5x5 inbreeding means, and what is considered acceptable/unacceptable for mating.
     
    #26
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    If you have a person whose father is also their grandfather they can be said to be inbred 1x2. (The notation being the generations). In human and equine terms this would be seen as unacceptable. First cousins ‘producing’ an offspring is frowned on and is 2 x 2 inbreeding. Of course in equine terms we don’t refer to cousins as sires are not monogamous. So hence the notation.
    Enable is inbred 3 x 2 to Sadler’s Wells which by many is seen as plenty close enough. I refer you to the bit I wrote on Boussac a few years back as to the possible drawbacks of close inbreeding.
     
    #27
  8. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I’ll hunt up your Boussac article and have a read.
    All I can say is I’m glad I’m not 1x3, because I never knew my grandfather, let alone my great grandfather!<laugh>
     
    #28
  9. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Thought I'd put out a list of sires who will have their first 2yos running this season. I list what I believe will be the top 15 sires by number of coverings. It is by no means comprehensive as it does not include French (or German for that matter) sires. The figure next to the sires is the number of coverings (or mattings). Will try to get the number of produce too (so if I do it that will be the second figure).

    Gutaifan (by Dark angel) 185 ..151 foals 5-1
    Anjaal (Bahamian Bounty) 168 ..144 foals
    Cable Bay (Invincible Spirit) 139..109 foals
    Gleneagles (Galileo) 138 94foals 3-1
    Ivawood (Zebedee) 137 79 foals16-1
    Night of Thunder (Dubawi) 135 89foals 8-1
    Golden Horn (Cape Cross) 132 80foals 16-1
    Outstrip (Exceed and Excel) 130 83foals 25-1
    Kingston Hill (Mastercraftsman) 126 74foals
    Muhaarar (Oasis Dream) 123 93 foals 5-2
    Due Diligence (War Front) 113 79 foals
    Hallowed Crown (Street Sense) 108 64 foals
    Make Believe (Makfi) 107 77foals 16-1
    Telescope (Galileo) 102 ..85 foals
    Brazen Beau (I am Invincible) 97..68 foals 25-1

    added
    Hot Streak (Iffraaj) 95...74foals 7-1
    Free Eagle (High Chaparral) 108..84foals 12-1

    This should help those participating in the Predictions competition. The actual First Season sires competition is held from the opening of the Flat turf season to the end of that turf season but includes all-weather races held during the same period.

    Some exciting new sires and Golden Horn, Muhaarar and Gleneagles would be top of my list, but there are a lot of speedy sires out there who could be better than these 3 as regards siring 2yo winners.
     
    #29
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I think Brazen Beau will be good.
     
    #30

  11. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Sprinters should be more precocious, so if we're looking at the number of winners, the two I'd take would be Eddie bin Nesta's Brazen Beau and Muhaarar.
     
    #31
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  12. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    I've just read that Champion Hurdle winner Annie Power has just dropped a colt to Galileo. The BBC is suggesting that the secretive fee for the sire is probably above 300,000 pounds. There is no doubt that Annie Power was a wonder hurdler, but I'm not too sure I'd want to outlay so much on a jumps mare. Surely jumpers are a level below flat horses when it comes to race pace. If they could regularly compete in G1 flat races, then that's where we'd often see them. I don't think I'd be punting 300,000 quid.
     
    #32
  13. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Shes flat bred and Coolmore own her so why wouldnt she be going to Galileo, he usually puts speed into those mile and half pedigrees. They didnt buy her to breed jumpers.

    Ricci has a share in this colt as part of the deal but not sure if it will be in his colours, guessing it will be with obrien and trained for the flat, only going jumping if not up to much.
     
    #33
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  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Same family as last year’s 1000G winner but more stoutly bred. One for the 2023 Ascot Gold Cup or the 2024 bumper I should think.
     
    #34
  15. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    She could easily get Oaks/Derby horses imo, its just a typical stoute 1m4 flat pedigree, if she was some french jump bred coolmore wouldnt have been interested in buying her.
     
    #35
  16. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    The big players are not above mistakes when it comes to breeding Eddie. Remember the "The Green Monkey" fiasco? <laugh>
     
    #36
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    deleted
     
    #37
  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Somewhere on this Forum I mentioned that in-breeding to Danehill was looking a negative way to go. I'd now like to look at another bit of in-breeding and compare it. We are all aware of Northern Dancer and then his sons Sadler's Wells and Danzig, and so on. We know Galileo (Sadler's Wells) is the dominant sire of the last 10-12 years. We know his most illustrious son Frankel is already making a name for himself. I can't imagine a previous time when one sire line was so dominant. To Frankel you can add Nathaniel, and now Australia and soon Gleneagles and Churchill. but Sadler's Wells also sired Montjeu who in turn sired the distinctly useful sire Camelot. It goes on.

    Then you have Danzig who is almost more prolific than Sadler's Wells. Danzig's key sons were Danehill and Green Desert. Here are sons, grandson and great grandsons of Danehill : - Danehill Dancer (Choisir, Fast Company, Mastercraftsman), Exceed and Excel (Excelebration), Dansili (Zoffany, Harbinger, Bated Breath), War Front (Declaration of War), Kodiac, Fastnet Rock, Redoutes Choice, Duke of Marmalade Rock of Gibraltar, Holy Roman Emperor and Champs Elysses; and of Green Desert:- . Oasis Dream (Arcano, Showcasing, Power), Invincible Spirit (Kingman, Lawman, Charm Spirit, Territories, Zebedee), Cape Cross ( Sea the Stars, Golden Horn, Awtad ) and Desert Style (Paco Boy [Golden Galileo]). I’m sure I’ve missed plenty but you get the picture.

    So it is not surprising we are getting some significant in-breeding. Perhaps the closest I’ve seen recently is Enable, who is by Nathaniel (grandsire Sadler’s Wells) out of a Sadler’s Wells mare: so 3 X 2. What is surprising is that the only inbreeding to Northern Dancer is 4 X 3, with no other crosses, so no Danehill and definitely no Danzig (the world of Danzig sires are her lobster as Arthur Mullard would say). That is rare these days! Now we have another filly, Annapurna, who is inbred 3 X 3 to Sadler’s Wells (she does have a Danehill line through Frankel’s dam) and she is likely to run in the Oaks. Meanwhile the Derby favourite, Sir Dragonet, is also 3 x 3 inbred to Sadler’s Wells (also no Danehill but a line of Danzig through Oasis Dream)..

    Now this is little evidence that inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells is a positive thing, but it’s a good start. Danehill has 5 years start on Sadler’s Wells so we’ll see more of this type of inbreeding as time goes on. People are always looking for nicks and maybe this is one to follow. A nick established early in Galileo’s career was with mares by Danehill (3 x 4 in-breeding to Northern Dancer) and it reached its summit in Frankel.

    However there is plenty of data saying in-breeding to Danehill is sub-optimal. This is a concern for many breeders, no more so than to Australian breeders for whom Danehill is the cornerstone of their breeding.

    The history of breeding shows periods when inbreeding was the in-thing being followed by periods when everyone was seeking out-crosses. It is generally held that too much in-breeding is eventually injurious to the breed. So if this Danehill effect is real what is causing it? I have a theory but almost impossible to test it, and certainly beyond my means. My theory rests on the basis that Danehill, himself, is inbred to Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma. So Danehill’s grandsire is Northern Dancer (out of Natalma) while Danehill’s granddam is out of Natalma. So Danehill was inbred 3 x 3 to Natalma (being inbred to a mare is not as common as inbreeding to sires, but is known).

    It follows that when you inbreed to Danehill you immediately have 4 crosses of Natalma. Maybe that is too much. There is an obvious problem with the theory and that is that mating a Danehill mare to a Northern Dancer sire line (but with 2 crosses of Northern Dancer and hence Natalma) is being carried out all the time, so how damaging is that? The answer is I don’t know. I do know that Harbinger had 3 crosses of Natalma in the first 5 generations, 4 if you go to the 6th and 5 if you go to the 7th. What one can’t judge is how many generations does it take for a possible negative effect to fade.

    So I’m certain inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells will occur more in the future. We’ll watch for it. This Danehill thing? Will it impact some sires (for example Frankel) and make Danzig’s Green Desert line more popular (Invincible Spirit/ Kingman and Sea the Stars are already doing a good job). Or will No Nay Never, American Pharoah and Justify be so successful they'll make us forget all about these worries? Watch this space.
     
    #38
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
  19. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Due Diligence currently tops the charts with 5 wins from 20 runs (25%), and he he is followed by Brazen Beau and Cable Bay who have both had 3 wins. Gleneagles has had 2 wins from just 4 runs.
     
    #39
  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    A first mating for Anapurna? I’d go for Oasis Dream but Invincible Spirit would be a good deputy. Plenty of time for her to be sent to more outcross sires like Justify or No Nay Never.
     
    #40

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