Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread

Gordon Elliott reckons Andy Dufresne wasn't right. He could not put his finger on anything in particular but felt the horse is better than he showed. It's early days to write off a horse based on one run but it was a disappointing show. Gordon Elliott thinks the winner is a decent sort but the odds of Andy Dufresne were ridiculous and that is why I would rather have an ante-post bet at big odds, than back something as short as a carrot in one of the early season races.

Thinking of hyped horses, I cannot really consider a horse you have placed a bet on at odds of 25/1 to be "Hyped" in any way.

As expected Klassical Dream is favourite for the Matheson Hurdle and he needs to win it to be on target for the Champion Hurdle. Generally about Evens for the race on 29th December, the 4/1 for Cheltenham will surely be history if successful in the race where Coeur Sublime is second fav at 3/1.

 

Coeur Sublimes 155 rating is laughable, but he will at least be fit unlike a few in the race. Klassical Dream will need to win easily to stop his price going the other way. I wouldnt be surprised if Elliots 50/1 shot Surin gave Couer Sublime a race.

 

Leading and not yet asked a serious question when taking a heavy fall at the 15th

 

Yes, when I wrote that it was from the point of view of the average conception of the public. How often can you back a "Hype" horse at 25/1?

People buying into "Hype" are the fools who lunge in at odds of 1/3 on a largely unknown quantity, when it is clear to wiser people that the form is not yet there to warrant such a price.

There have been several examples already this season which demonstrate that securing bigger odds, to much lower stakes, has been better than wading in on the day on the hotpots.

Some horses are darn short for Cheltenham after today but they are not value to my eyes and I feel Klassical Dream is huge at 5/1 for Cheltenham. It is D-day in the Matheson Hurdle for sure but I don't think he needs to win by miles to cement his position. That Champion Hurdle is weak, especially given that a 5YO mare is favourite now at 3/1 in places. That was a weak Christmas Hurdle where Fusil Raffles ran like a drain and I doubt it will hold up as a good renewal. Klassical Dream really should beat his field. I do not believe that Coeur Sublime improved 10 lbs on his seasonal debut and I still have him on 145 myself. His comeback win has not worked out at all well, with runner up Coko Beach well whipped when falling at the last off 142 in a Handicap race next time and the third Triplicate needed a search party to find him on his next start when beaten 48 lengths.

I'll probably double Klassical Dream up with something on the 29th because I reckon he would have been 1/2 F coming into this race if he had won last time up. The fact that he is Evens looks betting material to me. If he can't win this one the Champion Hurdle looks completely off the table and so be it if it is.

 

Not surprised to see Epatante favourite with some bookies given its the first visually taking performance from a 2 miler this season, but wouldn't be getting carried away as that was almost a gimmie today in a G1 in name only. The horse with the best form Verdana Blue was first time out and can't run in the ground, and the runner up Silver Streak is also a good ground horse and not top class. The Champion Hurdle, as poor as it looks at this stage, will surely be more of a test.

I think Klassical Dream will win, but he has to or you can probably forget the champion hurdle imo. The race does look a bit deeper than Kempton but a few of the better horses are unlikely to run to a high level for various reasons. I expect Coeur Sublime to be yet another failure from a Juvenile division which looked very weak on paper and is proving to be with the big names from it all well beaten in open races.

I just can't get away from klassical dreams lack of finishing speed, for me he is a chaser in the making and Epatante looked much more like a proper 2 miler, if it comes down to those 2 being the standout contenders, I'd be with the mare all day long.

 

Samcro look to you like he needs stepping up yet Eddie?!!

 

Had not seen the race but just watched it there, he was travelling well and found nothing, not for the first time. Didn't really scream more distance. He was cantering all over one of fastest novice chasers in Ireland the time before as well. The horse needs jesus, not 3 miles. Terminado, file under don't believe the hype.

 

Can't seem to find the jlt betting, was looking at slate house as an outsider but wasn't sure what they were doing with him, doubt he will be an outsider any more

 

12/1 on Skybet

 

Haven't seen the race, but Samcro odds on in a Grade 1? When will they ever learn?

 

Epatante 25s available before the race. Great if your on at that price but way too short now.

Samcro just isnt the horse he was hyped up to be. Not even close.

Impressed by A Plus Tard and Slate House.

 

I know it was a Grade 1 race won by Allmankind on Friday and the bumper run 140 mins later was a Class 4, but to complete the 2 miles with 8 hurdles in the way 9 secs faster than the bumper seems a bit quick. Is that anything out of the ordinary?

 

My ante-post selections for now, and for fun

Tuesday 10th March
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Envoi Allen 1 point 6/1

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase
Notebook 1 point 6/1
Melon 1 point 16/1

Wednesday 11th March
15:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase
Altior 2 points 7/2

16:10 Cross Country Chase
Easyland 1 point 6/1

Thursday 12th March
13:30 JLT Novices' Chase
Faugheen 1 point 10/1

Friday 13th March
13:30 Triumph Hurdle
Aspire Tower 1 point 7/1
Allmankind 1 point 8/1

14:10 County Handicap Hurdle
Not So Sleepy 1 point ew 20/1

15:30 Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Clan Des Obeaux, 1 point 8/1

16:50 Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
Bun Doran 1 point ew 20/1


Edit. That's 14 points staked. A couple winners should clear it

 

I wouldn't think so Ron. Many bumpers are ran at a very sedate pace early on, so i would bet that was where the time difference was made up. Get the old fella Nassau to have a look at the sectionals for you. Also adding to the fact the higher quality of animal then too of course.

 

please don’t compare hurdles and bumpers

 

Normally I wouldn't but it seemed like a reasonable question given I would have expected the hurdles to slow down the horses somewhat. Also the time of Allmankind was relatively fast against standard compared with the other races on the same day. Plus the fact that the horse is a tearaway and pulled away again when challenged. Just trying to gauge from different angles if this was an exceptional performance

 

The best way to gauge the performance is through the second whose form ties in so well with A Wave Of The Sea who was well beaten in the good juvenile at Leopardstown.

I think it was a cracking performance given conditions and the fact he was staying on very strongly at the end suggests to me that he wouldn’t have any trouble in big field spring events.

The owners apparently thought he was a Derby horse when they had him in training on the flat but things didn’t go well and this is what looks a top career for him now.

 

Champion Hurdle looks wide open, so am chancing an outsider

Not So Sleepy

Got the stopwatch boys purring when winning a big handicap at Newbury recently, and jumping was top draw also relished the heavy conditions

Each Way at a general 40-1