Championship Season 2023/24 Commences 5th August

I don’t go as in depth as you mate, but I do like your attention to detail

I’ll be honest, I was totally miscounting total games. I was thinking it was 17 games for half way and hoping we could finish around 51 points.

 

See my reply to Aski I’m secretly hoping 51 points, I was looking at last seasons table and for some brain dead moment I was thinking 17 games was half way so yes broken down I’d have to revise it to 21 points, my error

 

No Problem Ristac, as I freely admit I love facts and figures, and whilst most of the time they don't prove anything, I find that they are good for curbing any potential for me to become suddenly over enthusiastic and help me to lower my expectations (or alternatively when things are looking desperate, stats are the straw that I am looking to cling onto )

Thus if we take your revised targets even at the half way stage of 19 games played, 26 points would have been a very ambitious target.

To put that into context, after 19 games last season, 12 of the 20 Premier League teams had 23 or less points, although 5 of those 12 were all on 23 points.

After 16 games last season, the average points total was 22, however more than 50% of the teams in the league had less than 21 points, with 9 clubs still yet to have achieved 20 points.

If 51 points is the total that you are looking for us to achieve, then Brighton finished last season in 9th place with 51 points. After 16 games Brighton had 20 points, in 11 th place, just behind Brentford on goal difference.

Thus I feel 19 points is probably a more realistic target, this would put us on par with both Villa and Palace based on last season, hence why I said 20 points would be exceeding my expectations. This would also be only 4 points less than we achieved in our first season back in the Premier League (after 16 games) in which we ended up finishing 9th with 59 points

 

17 points is the answer. That's where we will be heading in to the world Cup.

35 points will be enough to stay up so 18 points required from remaining 21 games.

 

My previous comment wasn’t meant to come over demeaning (if it did) I enjoy reading your posts and stats so long may they continue

 

But.. This season our first 16 league matches are a nice mix, last season we had that horrific run of games against the top teams where we couldn’t buy a point.

We should be aiming for a 51 point season are we now just a club who’s aim is to just avoid relegation season upon season? Flirt with danger again and the next glut of best players will all be asking to leave

 

Don't think we should aim for 17th @ristac but that's the first objective. The sooner we hit 35 points, the sooner we can start looking upwards instead of downwards. Hitting 35-40 points in March for example lifts the pressure and allows players to play with freedom. Suddenly the game becomes much easier.

That certainly happened under Bielsa in our first season back in the PL. We finished super strongly and a big part of that was knowing nothing too bad could happen.

 

I seem to remember going into last season, there was high expectations because of how well we did the previous one, some even ignoring the poor window we had, in Marcelo we trust etc. Obviously we all know how that turned out. Now because of that, survival at all costs is most's ambition, even though we've seemingly had a much better window.Folk seem to have little faith in Marsch let alone his system. It seems to have made us negative nellies. I'm talking about Leeds fans in general not particularly on here.

Are we better equipped? 4 changes, even though a couple won't be playing the same position , Koch and Struijk

lineup for first game of last season

Meslier, Ayling, Struijk, Cooper, Dallas, Koch, Raphinha, Rodrigo, Klich, Harrison, Bamford



probable lineup for today

Meslier, Kristensen, Llorente, Koch, Struijk, Roca, Adams, Harrison, Rodrigo, Aaronson, Bamford

 

I didnt take it that way either. I saw your reply and thought aha fair enough it was an honest mistake, and because of who I am, I took it as an opportunity to dig even deeper into the figures, because I like having these types of discussions and as most people who read any of my posts will know I'm a numbers nerd

Whilst I will agree that yes we should be looking at getting as many points as we can, so that as a club we can progress season after season, when we look at what most people's predictions for where we will finish this season, then the majority (including yourself I think) are suggesting that we ain't going to be in the top half, and yet 51 points is a top half finish. So to say you would be disappointed that we don't get 51 points, even though you have predicted that we will finish 17th seems to be at odds, and it was that, that drew me to replying to the post about how many number of points should we be looking at achieving. A 17th position finish suggests a total of around 41 points.

I think I've gone for a 14th place finish which would be around 45/46 points (although maybe I should be changing that given the outcome of my predicted results in the spoiler below), which given how last season went, the fact that we have lost two of our more influential players and have over half of our starting 11 as new additions, who whilst experienced, have no experience of English football then I would say that we have progressed, even if it not as much as "we" as fans would've liked.

If we get 45 points, but rely upon winning our last game to finish in 17th place then firstly its been a very competitive league, and secondly we need to do better. If however, like Watford did in the 2017/18 season, we get 41 points and yet finish a comfortable 14th then its probably been a very congested mid table, and shows that we are not far off and just need a little bit more quality with regards to our recruitment (That season Everton finished in 8th place on 49 points,), so being 8 points off an 8th place finish wouldnt be too much of a disappointment.

As I said previously, as unlikely as this happening, if after 16 games we are bottom of the table on 21 points, then I could see the board considering their options on whether to stick by JM or change it, however if we are in 14th place on 19 points after 16 games, then I don't think the board would be having any serious thoughts about replacing our present coach.

Have to admit that I haven't looked at our fixtures in great detail, so all of my numbers rambling ignores who we are playing in those games, but given that you have mentioned it, I've just done a quick run through of how I think those results will go. Maybe I've been a bit too generous with some results and a bit too harsh with others, but trying to be realistic. We play 5 of the top 6 teams from last season in those 16 games, the 3 newly promoted clubs, 2 teams that were about the same standard as ourselves, 3 teams that finished in the top 10 plus 2 other mid table teams that finished more than 8 points ahead of us last year.

Spoiler: Sorry this post turned into a bit of a ramble ;), so put all the predicted results in the spoiler instead

Wolves (H) - Draw - 1 Point
Southampton (A) Draw - 2 Points
Chelsea (H) Defeat - 2 Points
Brighton (A) Draw ? - 3 Points
Everton (H) Win - 6 Points
Brentford (A) Draw ? - 7 Points
Notts Forest (H) Win - 10 Points
Scum (A) Defeat - 10 Points
A Villa (H) - Draw - 11 Points
C Palace (A) Draw - 12 Points
Arsenal (H) Defeat - 12 Points
Leicester (A) Draw- 13 Points
Fulham (H) Win - 16 Points
Liverpool (A) Defeat - 16 Points
Bournemouth (H) Win - 19 Points
Spurs (A) Defeat - 19 Points

Last season we had 16 points from the first 16 games. The only difference between last seasons fixtures and this seasons, is that we played Newcastle and West Ham in the first 16 games instead of Aston Villa and Arsenal, and the 3 relegated teams have been replaced by those who got promoted. Where we suffered last season, was in games 17-28 where we picked up only 7 points from 12 games.

This Season the corresponding fixture list is - Do we get more than 7 points in that set of fixtures ? - Dependant upon form I can see about 11 points there, so a grand total of 30 points so far

Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
West Ham (H)
A Villa (A)
Brentford (H)
Notts Forest (A)
Scum (H)
Everton (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Brighton (H)
Wolves (A)

Our final 10 games then will be - which I see as being a conservative 12 points, giving us a grand total of 42 points

Arsenal (A)
C Palace (H)
Liverpool (H)
Fulham (A)
Leicester (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Man City (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Ham (A)
Spurs (H)

Of course we could take some comfort from my Super Computer Random Dice Rolling Program, which whilst it predicted a very roller coaster season for ourselves, saw us end up in a comfortable mid table position on 49 points, although I won't be holding my breath

 

It's not just us though Gessa.

Before last season started;

Odd of top half finish Evens
Odds of bottom half finish 10/11

Before this season started;

Odds of top half finish 9/2
Odds of bottom half finish 1/7

Pretty hard evidence that we're not considered an improved team and what lies ahead for us as it stands.

 

Yes mate, it's gone hand in hand, and those are acceptable odds, I think even the most optimistic of us have us as 12th but imo, I think even though 17th and above is the first target, looking at other teams, 14th is a realistic target, some have us relegated by Easter, with only Bournemouth below us, I think we just need to wait and see before we get too despondent

 

Both Radz & Kinear have come out and stated that 10th - 14th is the target.

Think we'd all be happy with that.

The question is though how will the fan base react to the inevitable 18 or so defeats that come with those expectations and goals ? Think it was the lad on loan Matthew Pennington who said Leeds is very difficult club to play for because we're only ever 2 defeats away from a crisis. By that he meant the club, the fans, the media just all whip up a frenzy where we're concerned and common sense and realism seems to go out of the window.

(Villa finished 14th last season and lost 19 matches).

 

Yes a good few ex players have said, when it's great it's great but when it's not, the pressure is immense. I think if we can get to 14thish, with a decent goal difference, then most would accept that.

 

I disagree. Most of our fans see us a a giant club and expect an ownership to get us back competing with the top teams and will never be satisfied until we are. Even as a realist I have to admit that thinking we can’t finish above clubs like Brighton or Crystal Palace is depressing.

 

I was talking about this season, I think most realise now how difficult it is to compete in the PL and would accept mid table with the hope of more squad additions next season. Of course long term the ambition is to firstly consistently get in that group of 6 or so clubs just under the top 6 and then see if we can attract investment to perhaps get into that top group. Clubs like Brighton and Palace seem to be well run and don't forget, they have 2 or 3 years extra premiership money.
Imo our fans, perhaps like a few other clubs, aren't realistic. We look at us as a big club and if Leeds want a player, they should come, because, 'we are Leeds' the realism is, to these young men, we were a big noise in the football league, with 3 era's of achievement in our history, they may not even know that, that have now got promoted to the PL, we had 1 very good season and 1 very poor, so why would they choose us over others, yes we have passionate fans who create a great atmosphere but so do Palace.

 

Only 2 hours to the match, so better get my predictions in ...

I believe that it's not just about us to determine where we end up. For me, there is a critical factor before I can judge how we'll perform.

1. If the relegation battle is as tight as it was last season, I believe we'll finish on 46 points in 16th place.
2. If the relegation battle is more like a regular season, I believe we'll finish on 50 points in 11th place.

But then, I think I predicted 5th last season, so skip this post!

(EDIT: Changed 40 to 50, as it should have been).

 

Just caught up with this thread. I’m standing by my 14th place finish, believe we will get around 19 points or slightly more in the run upto the WC break.
Don’t believe we’ll have as many defeats, but I can see more draws than last season, as I think we’ll be more competitive in all those matches against the sides below the top 6.
Think 40 points is the first objective (thought the same mid way through last season). Haven’t a clue how many points we’ll end up with. Just hope we’re a good watch and stay up this season and look to improve substantially next season.

 

From what we've seen so far it seems Bounemouth & Fulham won't be anybodies pushovers, which leads me to believe that even though we might be slightly improved from an overall squad perspective results will still be hard to come by.

Plus a lot depends on how the more established teams like Everton & Southampton perform so until we've all played a few more games I'll stick with my 17th for now.

 

History has shown that anything around the 36-38 point mark will be enough to survive. That's the first objective.

Picking up points early is a must. It just breeds confidence and releases the pressure.

 

We need to accumulate as many points as we can before Firpo returns to the team