Epsom -Oaks & Derby

Cheers Bustino, I'm not that knowledgeable on the breeding lines so I may have picked the wrong one then

 

Humphrey Bogart to split Ulysses and US Army Ranger.

 

No, not necessarily. The Derby is often won by a horse who has just enough stamina to get round 12f at Epsom (the examples from the past are numerous), . You have to have speed to win a Derby, it's not enough to be able to stay 12f. If Masaat is a well-actioned animal who can handle the course well he may have enough stamina to finish. I'm just saying it is not glaringly obvious that he will have enough stamina. I'm sure he'll have enough speed.

 

For sometime I've been considering doing an article on Major Lionel B Holiday. I'll maybe get round to it one day.

What prompts this post is that two of Saturday's field trace back to a Holiday horse I knew very well. That horse was unsurprisingly a Hethersett filly called Hazy Idea. Hazy Idea was trained by Dick Hern and as a 2yo won 3 races in England and then ran 4th in the Criterium de Pouliches at Longchamp. That she won 3 races was almost a miracle that year (1969) as this was the 3rd year Hern's stable had been hit with a debilitating virus. As a 3yo she wasn't as progressive as had been hoped but she still won two races (including the March Stakes) and was second in a Group 2 at Longchamp. She was inbred 3 X 3 to Holiday's Oaks runner-up Netherton Maid as she was both the granddam of Hethersett and the granddam of Won't Linger (the dam of Hazy Idea). The family is that of Lost Soul, one of the foundation mares of Holiday's Cleaboy stud.

Harzand's dam is by Xaar out Hazardjat (a Darshaan daughter of Hazy Idea), while Humphrey Bogarts's dam is by Kahyasi out of Hazardjat: so the dams are half-sisters. A lot of the Cleaboy stock found their way into the Aga Khan's studs when Brook Holiday reduced his bloodstock interests and both dams were bred by the Aga Khan. In an open Derby both must have a great chance. I'd favour Harzand purely on the fact that he is by Sea the Stars but Tagula has turned out to be a sire capable of siring top class horses.

The story doesn't end there as Port Douglas's 4th dam is Bride Elect the dam of Hethersett, and Bride Elect's dam was Netherton Maid. So the old Holiday family has a 3rd string to its bow with this Galileo colt. All 3 trace back to Netherton Maid who was a full-sister to the 1951 Oaks winner Neasham Belle. This is a Classic family.

Holiday never won the Derby and when Hethersett fell in the 1962 race he appeared enormously unlucky not to have done so. Maybe Saturday's result will give the Lost Soul family he established the result it has long deserved.

 

I backed Hethersett in that Derby Bustino

 

With the ground reported as “Soft (Good to Soft in places)”, the Epsom meeting is virtually guaranteed to be a no bet for me. The weather forecast is for more rain on Saturday. It might not be in the proportions that Bavaria and Central France has seen but the rain is continuing to plague the UK fixture list.

Last year on Oaks day, Arod was a license to print money in the Diomed but as he was pulled from the Lockinge because of the dead ground at Newbury he surely will not be in the line-up, unless Chapple-Hyam is desperate to get a run into him before Ascot (which would be a big mistake).

I hope that Minding can still win The Oaks despite the prevailing ground but for The Derby it is starting to look good for proven mudlark Harzand to take the prize home to Ireland for Dermot Weld. Soft ground cannot help questionable stayers like Massaat.

If the ground goes heavy, Harzand’s odds (currently 14/1) will quickly disappear but I might get involved. I know somebody that backed him at 33/1 months ago and he must be doing a rain dance!

 

The 'Holiday-breeding' horse in the Oaks is of course the favourite Minding. Her 5th dam is a filly called Vive La Reine who is by Vienna out of Noble Lassie. That makes her a full-sister to the great Vaguely Noble. Brook Holiday sold Vive La Reine to Charles St George and he got RB Chesne who looked a good 2yo but didn't train on. This favourite emanates from his Lorenzaccio half-sister (to RB Chesne) called Alathea. A totally different family to the Lost Soul line.

 

The great Vaguely Noble. My second favourite horse.

 

Oaks: Skiffle and Turret Rocks
Derby: Algometer and Harzand

4 Win Singles and 4 Win Doubles

 

Free Timeform Derby Card here

 

Well. I'm in bloody good company, Bustino tipped my Oaks pair too!

 

It is no secret now (thanks to the link that Ron posted) that Wings of Desire is the top-rated in The Derby with Timeform. It is interesting to note that there are so many closely matched competitors that this really is a very open race.

My problem with Wings of Desire is that whilst he won the best trial (just ahead of Deauville) we know that something went wrong with the favourite Midterm and the winner got the run of the race. With so little experience, is the hustle and bustle of the big field going to be his undoing?

Clearly Timeform think quite highly of the 2000 Guineas form judged on the rating awarded to Massaat but I am less and less convinced that he will stay, so his best chance may be if it is slowly run and turns into a sprint (unlikely as I expect Deauville or Port Douglas to make the running).

I am surprised at the rating given to Cloth Of Stars because I do not think that much of his French form amounts to a great deal as this race will not be run like at home, is not a small field and does not feature any of his old adversaries. Can Barzalona incur Fabre’s wrath a second time by celebrating victory before the post?

My original enthusiasm for Harzand is tempered by news that the forecast rain is now unlikely to materialise.

Since I cannot find solid reasons to back anything, I am going to no bet the race just like I would any other.

 

A Holiday classic double. The old bugger would like that

 

Niiiiccccccceeeeeeeeeeeee - was hovering over the cashout when i heard about the shoe..... so so so glad i didnt!!!

 

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Shout!

 

A most timely article Bustino

 

Hearty congrats to Bustino and all who backed Harzand.....

 

the don got it on the nose

 

Of all the people on here that I have not met you are the one I would most like to spend an afternoon at the races with. Your knowledge of racing is sublime and you are an absolute gentleman.

PS: Quite a few are close behind and those that I have met have mostly been fantastic.