How will it all end

So with only 5 games left I thought I'd have a go at predicting how the season will end. I still think anyone from Birmingham to Blackburn will go down. Wigan are pretty much dead certs now.

So anyway here is the 5 teams and their fixtures. Have a go yourself and see where we end up.

Birmingham:

Rotherham A WIN
Burton H WIN
Aston Villa A LOSE
Huddersfield H LOSE
Bristol City A DRAW

7 points

Nottingham Forest:

Blackburn H WIN
Cardiff A LOSE
Reading H LOSE
QPR A DRAW
Ipswich H WIN

7 points

Burton:
Ipswich H DRAW
Birmingham A LOSE
Leeds H LOSE
Barnsley A DRAW
Reading H LOSE

2 points

Bristol City:

QPR H WIN
Blackburn A DRAW
Barnsley H WIN
Brighton A LOSE
Birmingham H DRAW

8 points

Blackburn:

Nottingham Forest A LOSE
Bristol City H DRAW
Wolves A LOSE
Aston Villa H LOSE
Brentford A DRAW

2 points


Final table

Birmingham 53
Bristol City 52
Nottingham Forest 52
Burton 47
Blackburn 42

 

Birmingham:
Rotherham A WIN
Burton H WIN
Aston Villa A LOSE
Huddersfield H Win
Bristol City A Lose
9 points

Nottingham Forest:
Blackburn H WIN
Cardiff A LOSE
Reading H Draw
QPR A Lose
Ipswich H WIN
7 points

Burton:
Ipswich H WIN
Birmingham A LOSE
Leeds H LOSE
Barnsley A LOSE
Reading H WIN
6 points

Bristol City:
QPR H WIN
Blackburn A DRAW
Barnsley H DRAW
Brighton A LOSE
Birmingham H Win
8 points

Blackburn:
Nottingham Forest A LOSE
Bristol City H DRAW
Wolves A LOSE
Aston Villa H LOSE
Brentford A LOSE
1 points

Final table
Birmingham 54
Bristol City 52
Nottingham Forest 52
Burton 51
Blackburn 41

 

Birmingham:
Rotherham A WIN
Burton H WIN
Aston Villa A LOSE
Huddersfield H LOSE
Bristol City A LOSE
6 points

Nottingham Forest:
Blackburn H WIN
Cardiff A LOSE
Reading H LOSE
QPR A DRAW
Ipswich H DRAW
5 points

Burton:
Ipswich H WIN
Birmingham A LOSE
Leeds H LOSE
Barnsley A LOSE
Reading H LOSE
3 points

Bristol City:
QPR H WIN
Blackburn A DRAW
Barnsley H WIN
Brighton A LOSE
Birmingham H WIN
10 points

Blackburn:
Nottingham Forest A LOSE
Bristol City H DRAW
Wolves A LOSE
Aston Villa H DRAW
Brentford A LOSE
2 points

Final table

Bristol City 54
Birmingham 52
Nottingham Forest 50
Burton 48
Blackburn 42

 

added these to my database which is part of the thread of the "compo" I started at start of the break when we forcast last 8 match's
assuming City is a guesstimate

 

using the combined aggregate as my prediction
florest .................. 52
CITY .....................51
BURTON ............49
BBURN ...............45
WIGAN ...............44
ROTHERHAM ...22

 

Seriously, the way the Championship has been this year, predicting this stuff is a three sided coin toss. There's just no rhyme or reason to some of the results this year, especially ours. Basically for us, we need to not lose at Blackburn. A win at Ewood would likely see us safe. A loss and who knows. What we do know is that our lads cannot handle pressure and going into the last game needing anything will likely not bode well for us.

Anyway, for what it's worth, here's my stab:

Birmingham:
Rotherham A WIN
Burton H DRAW
Aston Villa A DRAW
Huddersfield H LOSE
Bristol City A LOSE
5 points

Nottingham Forest:
Blackburn H DRAW
Cardiff A LOSE
Reading H LOSE
QPR A DRAW
Ipswich H WIN
5 points

Burton:
Ipswich H WIN
Birmingham A DRAW
Leeds H LOSE
Barnsley A WIN
Reading H LOSE
7 points

Bristol City:
QPR H WIN
Blackburn A DRAW
Barnsley H LOSE
Brighton A LOSE
Birmingham H WIN
7 points

Blackburn:
Nottingham Forest A DRAW
Bristol City H DRAW
Wolves A LOSE
Aston Villa H DRAW
Brentford A LOSE
3 points

Final table

Burton 52
Bristol City 51
Birmingham 51
Nottingham Forest 50
------------------------------
Blackburn 43

 

Good results for you yesterday guys, and not least your own - that was a very good and vital win against Wolves.

I still think your're mostly wrong about Blackburn finishing with such a lowly points total. They cocked up against Barnsley yesterday but should have won the game.

Don't want to be controversial but I actually think Blackburn will finish above you.

Although Forest beat Huddersfiled like you did recently, they look vulnerable to me and could be your get out of jail card.

 

All the City predictions above are fairly optimistic. I wonder what you all would've said the morning after the Preston game? At that point I was very worried but now much more optimistic.

Which is why I don't think there is any way you can predict these things with any hope of accuracy.

A win at Blackburn would see us up I reckon and I'm hoping they put us out of our misery by doing that. Although I will be pleasantly surprised if it actually happens.

 

To be fair, before we played Brentford and Preston I had us down to take only 1 point from those games. So wasn't expecting much. Our home form is cruical. QPR, Barnsley and Brum are all winnable. Can't see us losing any of them. The away games... well... can't see us winning any of them either. Blackburn have the toughest run in. Don't think they've won a game since the beginning of march so just can't see them pulling away now.

 

Blackburn have the toughest run in. Whoever they finish above will be going down, we've now pulled 4 points clear. Win our next game and it will be to tall a task for them to finish above us. Forest picking up points now, Burton still fighting. Not sure where you're getting this optimism for Blackburn from. Out of the 4 of us they are most likely to go down. Not won a game since beating Wigan at the beginning of march. So as I say, if they finish above us then we're relegated.

 

Just an opinion shiny.

I've watched Blackburn a few times since Mowbray went there and although the results haven't gone their way, they're potentially a better side than their table position would suggest.

Their next two games will resolve everything. If they get results against Forest and you, it'll be one of you two to go down - like I said, only an opinion.

 

BTW shiny, I see you've got you finishing 10 points clear of Blackburn whilst AN16 and Supcon have the gap at 11 and 12 points respectively.

No way Pedro!! - it's going to be a lot closer than that.

(I stand to be shot down in flames guys )

 

It's a fine line OldSparkey, as you say if Blackburn get the points from us and Forest they will probably be safe, and if they don't they will sink without trace. I'm personally hoping it's the latter

 

I'll get my flaming crossbow ready

 

Thought I'd take a bash at this too:

Birmingham:

Rotherham A WIN
Burton H DRAW
Aston Villa A LOSE
Huddersfield H LOSE
Bristol City A DRAW

5 points

Nottingham Forest:

Blackburn H WIN
Cardiff A LOSE
Reading H DRAW
QPR A DRAW
Ipswich H WIN

8 points

Burton:
Ipswich H WIN
Birmingham A DRAW
Leeds H LOSE
Barnsley A DRAW
Reading H DRAW

6 points

Bristol City:

QPR H WIN
Blackburn A LOSE
Barnsley H DRAW
Brighton A LOSE
Birmingham H DRAW

5 points

Blackburn:

Nottingham Forest A LOSE
Bristol City H WIN
Wolves A LOSE
Aston Villa H LOSE
Brentford A DRAW

4 points

Final table
Nottingham Forest 53
Burton 51
Birmingham 51
Bristol City 49
Blackburn 44

I find it quite comforting that even factoring in a loss away to Blackburn, that we can still finish above them, so not necessarily the 'must win' game people will no doubt be billing it as (like the home game against Rotherham last year, which was 'must win', but we drew and miraculously stayed up comfortably).

I think Blackburn do have some fight about them, but some tough fixtures also. I'm sure this picture will change significantly with every set of results - come Friday afternoon we could have a 7 point cushion or just 1! Trying to be balanced, I think we're currently slightly more likely to stay up than go down.

 

First thing we need is a win vs QPR and that should settle a lot of upset tummies. If my memory serves me correctly we historically don't do well in holiday weekend fixtures ( 2 games in 3 days) but now is the time to step up and be counted because 6 points over Easter could possibly seal our survival.

 

First thing we need is a win vs QPR and that should settle a lot of upset tummies. If my memory serves me correctly we historically don't do well in holiday weekend fixtures ( 2 games in 3 days) but now is the time to step up and be counted because 6 points over Easter could possibly seal our survival.

 

It won't surprise me if Birmingham end up being relegated

 

ssssssssssh that would make my day

 

Obviously, a win against QPR would be excellent, and would guarantee points gained on at least one relegation rival with Blackburn and Forest planning each other.

Blackburn are on a knife-edge now. Being four points behind means that of just five games left, they need to make points in at least two of those games, without losing any in the other three; and even then, goal difference could come into play, in which the advantage is with us.

I agree that Birmingham could be in trouble if they're not careful. They have picked up some credible draws which suggest they probably have enough points in the bag to survive, but it could well be a case of 'saved by the bell'.