Daily Racing Thread Sunday 7th. May 2017

Sunday's Meetings

Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
1000 Guineas Off @ 3:35p.m.
Leopardstown
Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:05p.m.
Hamilton
Flat 7 Races 1:35-4:55p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post Bloodstock
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Daban 7/1 1000

 

Big bet, even by your standards Bob!

 

all about Horseplay 3/1

take the 33s for the Oaks

 

What odds will anyone give me the dark sunglassed one says after one of his fillies wins - listen "she's a very special filly" we've always thought a lot of her - the "lads" will decide where we go next ?! - guaranteed

 

I agree with the Kaiser that the Pretty Polly is often a fruitful source of Oaks winners (remember Talent and Taghrooda in successive
years recently ?), and I've nothing against Horsehair. But maybe this year the 1000G will be the better guide: a few of us were able to watch TALAAYEB work a couple of weeks ago - admittedly at a very respectful distance - and were enormously impressed. I very much doubt that she's got the miling-speed, the experience or the solid winter work to get close in the Guineas today, but I expect her to run pretty impressively, and this might be the time to get the 16-1 for the Oaks before it vanishes.

And I remember that this meeting was always Eez's favourite time of the year. As these beautiful fillies come surging out of the dip, remember the Fenland Philosopher and raise a glass or a smile. May the turf lie on you lightly, old friend.

 

I can't think of two fillies I'd rather back for the Oaks than Horseplay and Talaayab.
The latter's dam was 2nd in the Oaks and comes from the family of Ghanaati and many others.

 

There looks to be little of betting interest in two of the three pattern races at HQ today and I think that the best bet on the card runs in a handicap. In the third race (2:55), GUNMETAL won well over course and distance at the Craven meeting and can follow up with similar conditions prevailing and race fitness guaranteed. The handicapper has taken a dim view of that easy win, so the odds should not be too poor.

On the ratings the best horse in the Dahlia Stakes is Somehow but her form, including a Group 3 win last term, is all on easy ground. Nezwaah makes her four year old bow but all her wins have been on artificial surfaces so I cannot back her on turf. Muffri’Ha is consistent and won a Group 3 as a four year old but she has four places to her name already this year and seems hard to win with so that leads me to Skiffle, fifth in the Oaks last year, winner of a listed race and surely not kept in training just for fun – what deters me from betting is the seven and a half lengths she was behind Somehow on easy ground last year.

I cannot find any reason to bet in the Pretty Polly Stakes as the two that have raced this term ran moderately and three of the four seasonal debutants could be anything. Obviously any filly that wins convincingly will be an instant Oaks contender.

In the 1000 Guineas, the two main trials provide much of the form. Fred Darling winner Dabyah has been re-routed to France but the runner up Urban Fox and fifth Queen Kindly come here, although the latter is a doubtful stayer but as Richard Fahey says in his column “they only get the one chance to run in the race”. Nell Gwyn winner Daban is re-opposed by runner up Unforgetable Lady, third Poet’s Vanity and sixth Kilmah but I see no grounds for any of them reversing the positions. The form of the Irish contingent is very convoluted, as they all seem to have beaten each other at one time or another. Intricately won the Moyglare beating Hydrangea and Rhododendron. Then Rhododendron beat Hydrangea in the Fillies’ Mile having done the same in the Debutante. This year, Hydrangea beat Winter (second) and Intricately (fourth) in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial. The once-raced Talaayeb is very much the dark horse here but I am going to side with Frankel’s daughter FAIR EVA to remind Roger Charlton what it is like to win a Classic – blindly in the hope that she does not disappoint like so many of the other Frankel three year olds to date.

 

Only one I'm certain on today. Captain Colby , as tough as nails and lightning quick and will love the rattling ground another is miss infinity.
I've a busy day of to ride shortly then home shower and off to hq.
My lucks gotta change soon, hopefully it's today. Have a good one
Cheers.

 

You backing her today?

 

Alex Hammond has tipped up Rhododendren so she has to be taken on! Daban won well here last month for the in form Gosden/Detorri combo and should go very close.

 

If you're backing the Nell Gwyn form, then imo it has to be worth small e/w punts on the 2nd and 3rd that day. Unforgetable Filly 25/1 and Poet's Vanity 16/1.

 

My attempt at the Newmarket card:

1:50 - Big Country
2:20 - Somehow
2:55 - Hakam/Intisaab
3:35 - Rhododendron
4:10 - Qaaraat
4:45 - Isabel De Urbina
5:20 - Dubai Horizon

Only bet placed so far is placepot. Am thinking, Somehow/Rhododendron/Qaaraat treble. Win singles on Intisaab and Isabel De Urbina and ew patent on the three De Sousa horses, Big Country/Hakam/Dubai Horizon. To take the favourite on in the Guineas i'm having an ew play on Unforgetable Filly at 25/1

 

A shrewder judge than myself has convinced me to have a bet on QUEEN KINDLY @ 40/1.
The logic behind this? She was given a Jamie Spencer shocker in the Greenham on her seasonal debut. He yanked the head off her at the start to forfeit a good half a dozen lengths! Her two year old form measures up to the very best, remember she beat Fair Eva fair and square in the Lowther. On official ratings she is third in the field.
People have discounted her readily as a lot think she will not get a mile but she was finishing strongly over seven in the Greenham. Spencer is ejected and hopefully Mosse will ride her positively and believe she can stay, if she does then she surely goes very close! You do have to forgive a poor run in a very windy Cheveley Park.

Had a decent bet on EASTERN IMPACT to win the sprint!

 

You will be pleased to know that I can't have either of those today.

Daban in the big race for me, Frankie a big plus and hopefully can get her tucked in behind the AOB runners before drawing her out with a furlong or so to go.

Projection is a group horse in a handicap for me, and with the yard in great form I think he has to prove it today.

 

Very impressive performance by Frontiersman

 

Another shocker for me Ryan Moore to win the last two

 

Yes, absolutely stinking in the betting tho.

 

I could kiss you DK