The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday March 18 2016

Dodgy Gold Cups have been the norm since the vintage Kauto Star/Denman era, last year's was decent but nothing compared to what could be set for next March's renewal. Here's my take on the main protagonists.

Coneygree 8/1
It's only right to start with the reigning champ, especially one who many of us (not least myself) thought was a bit of a joke to even be in this year's race in the first place! This chap came onto the forum's attention one non descript November afternoon when he'd been punted off the boards on debut only to be pulled at the start on vetinary advise. He then went on a sequence of dominant front running displays culminating in victory on an unseasonably wet March afternoon at Prestbury Park under a stunning ride from the vastly underrated Nico de Boinville. To win a Gold Cup as a novice was a hell of an achievement, they weren't exactly a field of mugs and he simply ran them ragged. 25l back to a Hennessy & Grand National winner, the previous two winners pulled up etc But the one thing I think's most telling is that the ground came perfect for him on the day. Heavy rainfall all morning left the official going as 'soft' and watching the racing that day, strung out fields and muddied silks emphasised just how soft it really was. This horse was notably scratched from the RSA on the basis of 'good' ground and one must wonder can he replicate last year's run on typical March going. I'd personally suspect no he can't, and there's also the fact he looks likely to face an even higher level of competitor than he met in 2015. Worth remembering though as a novice he could/should be better again this season but I'm not sure how much he will improve and in fact a brutal Gold Cup can leave a mark. All things considered he wouldn't be for me and from the much discussed antepost angle I'd suspect he'll be a double figure price after the King George.

Vautour 9/2
When you look back at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival it was Vautours performance that towered above all else like a Goliath. He even had Ruby Walsh lost for words and after sending out a hammering of 15l and upwards it's easy to see why! Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido ran up to their high 150 marks which would be winning any normal JLT but this wasn't a normal race or opponent they faced. I could wax lyrical all morning but to boil it down is he a Gold Cup or is he in effect too 'fast'. If you listen to connections they'll tell you he can win from 2m - 4m but the same folk thought Champagne Fever would stay a Gold Cup and he can't even get 3m round Kempton! He wasn't stopping at the end of the JLT and with a genius in the saddle you'd be hopeful the petrol could be conserved at times from the front. Hopeful but not confident is my take on if he can stay. IF he stays the rest may as well stay at home as far as I'm concerned and dare I say it, we could be back to another Kauto Star type era. The King George will be another indicator as to does he/doesn't he stay and because of the doubt, I couldn't put him up as an antepost recommendation.

Don Cossack 8/1
This ones career path went something like wow-mmmmm-ohhhhh-and back very much to wow again. Being the top rated chaser around it's easy to see why people like his chances. I've even seen some say 'look what he done to the Gold Cup placed horses compared to Coneygree' which is of course a nonsense form line as that pairs race was left somewhere up the muddy run in at Cheltenham six weeks earlier. A huge horse and terrific leper he will be severely tested in the King George against Vautour and Coneygree and even winning that I'd still be lukewarm on The Don's Gold Cup dreams. Two runs and two defeats there isn't the sort of record that'd make me go too mad. Compared to so many in the potential line up with Festival glory, Vautour twice, Don Poli twice, Coneygree the reigning Champ. I know this lad's a really terrific horse but I don't think he's a terrific horse at Cheltenham but I could easily be proved wrong come March.

Don Poli 8/1
Dual Festival winner and winner of the best trial, the RSA, this one looks the 'trends' horse, but I'm not really into that bollocks myself. I was at Leopardstown last Christmas when this guy narrowly beat Apache Stronghold and I remember laughing and shaking my head with a fella next to me as we discussed the mickey taking this lazy sod does! And of course we seen him at his usual antics in the RSA having the audacity to make Cooper shake him up halfway only to prick his ears up the run in. But I simply love that laziness in a horse wanting to win a Gold Cup as that means he's loads left for the hill which he simply devours. The Irish staying races this season should be a class apart if they all stay fit and from them we may even see Don Poli get beat but he's more than capable of reversing that form in March. He's the one for me as he's just so solid and he'll love the extreme trip.

Djakadam 10/1
This was one I put up around this time last year at 50/1 and but for a bleeding novice scuppering me, I was very close to quite the payday. First thing about him is he was a huge framed horse who wasn't any good over hurdles, but last season he filled out and he proved many wrong as he progressed into a Gold Cup class horse like I hoped he would. Probably prefers a cut in the ground, I don't think he wants it as hock deep as the Gold Cup winner (was running a huge race on good ground in 2014 JLT before falling) so there's a chance he could reverse that form. Generally if you're beat in one, you don't win it second time round.

Others to consider are last year's Road to Riches but again I can't see him improving enough to win but he could be a real player in his home Grade Ones. Holywell just isn't up to this level. Paul Nicholls knows a thing or two about Gold Cup horses and he's raving about his Saphir du Rheu but tellingly not for next year's, feeling it's a year too soon. Far be it from me to tell him but that's probably not the case as Coneygree showed, if you're good enough you're old enough! He's one with huge potential to shorten if he wins a race or two by March. Southfield Theatre is another housed at Ditcheat, didn't give his true running they feel in the RSA and looked a decent prospect but hard to imagine him winning, he does have definite place prospects as he's a dour stayer who could run into a place.

DON POLI is the safest bet, but the purist in me would adore VAUTOUR to win it and show he can stay. It'd be some sight as he's easily in my view the most exciting chaser around. He could become a great.


The 2016 Cheltenham Festival Megathread

 

The winner is easy to pick for me, and its Don Cossack. I know some may say he doesn't handle Cheltenham, but he made 1 error in the Ryanair which cost him ground on the winner, and even then it required 2 horses to sandwich him going to the second last to prevent him coming back at the winner, as make no mistake he'd of won that race without that interference. As he come up the hill like a train, looking like a horse that could go round again.

He is the perfect chaser for me, he has loads of tactical speed, as was proven at Aintree and he stays all day as was proven at Punchestown.

Some argue you can't take the Punchestown form literally, well why not? Can horses only run to form once a year at Cheltemham? That's a complete load of nonsense if you ask me. If anything Don Cossack had more excuses than the other 2 having run at Aintree aswell, so he really proved how tough and robust he is by running at all 3 big festivals last year, and putting up exceptional efforts in the last 2.

I don't even see this years Gold Cup being a worthwhile contest if they get him there safe and sound, as he'll have far to much for them, I can see him running away from the field at the business end, much like at Punchestown.

Vautour for me has the ability of a great horse, but he's not a Gold Cup horse, he really should be running in the QMCC if you ask me. He's not going to be able to use his speed to good affect over an extreme distance. We seen what a battle it was last year, so speed really won't come into it, and there's no way hell outstay the rest of them.

Don Poli I think will be in the frame, though I don't see him troubling Don Cossack, I think he is probably the horse who'll take 2nd place. I agree he'll probably get beat a lot in the trials, but will put up an improved effort at Cheltenham, as the up hill finish will play into his hands.

Coneygree will need the ground to come in his favour again, and I'm not convinced the form of last years race will stand up to this years. I point back to what Don Cossack done to the horses who got close to Coneygree at Cheltenham.

Djakadam will probably reverse form with Coneygree, but he's got loads to find with Don Cossack, even though he's still young. He'd be my idea of the horse who finishes 3rd.

So my prediction would be

1st Don Cossack
2nd Don Poli
3rd Djakadam

Let's hope all the main protagonists get there safe and sound, even though they rarely do

 

Great write-up, Beefy, and, for what it's worth, I agree with you that DON POLI looks to be the one to be with at this stage, all things considered.

Of those that ran in the race last season, I think it's asking a lot for them to come back this year and win it. Not many horses have won back-to-back Gold Cups and fewer still have come back to win the race having been beaten in it previously (The great Kauto Star being the only one I can think of!).

VAUTOUR could be anything, as you say, and was fantastic in The JLT, but he looks more a King George type to me but two 'dark horses' could be SOUTHFIELD THEATRE, who, despite being injured, ran a good race in The RSA last season and, perhaps more left-field, O'FAOLAINS BOY for the lovely Rebecca Curtis. He's proved himself in the hurly-burly of a Festival race and looks the sort you need for the attritional race that is The Gold Cup. Much will depend on how he returns from his injury-induced long lay-off.

 

Could easily be a Mullins rout in the open age chase graded events at the festival. I'd send UDS to the QMCC, Vautour to the Ryanair and load up with Don Poli and Djakadam in the Gold Cup.

 

Nice write up Beefy!!

I'm still in the CONEYGREE camp and I'm sure there is a little more improvement in him. What he did last year as a novice astonished me and I think whatever beats him, wins.

On paper it looks like the best GC since the legends first clashed in 2008!!

 

Not only the Gold Cup, we might just see a vintage year of contests over staying trips. Haydock and Kempton likely to be good and even races like down Royal and Wetherby could well be superb.

 

Don Cossack could certainly prove me wrong Shergy as I said in my post but as both him and Don Poli are the same price, an each-way price, if someone asked me now what they should stick twenty quid on I'd be far more comfortable saying £10/ew on Don Poli than Don C. I just can't see Don Poli out of the frame in any scenario should he line up, I just don't have that confidence in the other Don, granted he could win head in chest. He's a super horse, there's no denying that

 

Vautour and Don Cossack dont look Gold Cup horses but will be good to have them in the race as they are obviously two of the best around.

Early days but its Don Poli vs Coneygree for me and I prefer Don Poli.

 

I agree Nass. I am not one for criticising the flat, as you know, but the raft of withdrawals this year has made it a bit mundane.It would be great to have a jumps season with loads of really good match ups. Here's hoping...

 

Don Cossack will be out Saturday again for the JN wine chase at Down Royal. I also, at this stage like Don Poli, he's a horse that just finds all day for ya, he'll have no trouble with the trip or track and would be hard to outstay if it develops into a battle up that hill. Unless something can totally outclass him prior to it getting to that stage, which is possible.

Early days yet anyway lads, don't be getting too carried away

 

Vautour for me, think he will stay just fine. I'd expect him to win the KG and go off at about 6/4 for the Gold Cup

 

I just don't see Gigginstown and Ricci having multiple entries in this race. For a start Walsh and Cooper won't want it as they'll have to choose between 2/3 very good horses. They'll be reporting after races all season that horse x feels better at shorter trip, not certain to get GC trip etc, etc. As has been already mentioned Gigginstown will want a live one in the race they sponsor. I'd really like to see Vautour in the line up though and will be disappointed if he ends up in the Ryanair. Although Imperial Commander won this before prevailing in the GC, the Ryanair honours board is hardly an elite club.
I must give an honourable mention to Holywell for his 2015 GC performance. Stayed on well for 4th less than 10 lengths behind the winner on ground that was hardly ideal for him. I thought his odds were insane going into the race but he surprised me. On good ground he'd have a decent place chance.

 

Some great write ups as you can see from the amount I hve 'liked' I have backed two for the gold cup Vatour you have to back him all signs says he's going for it and after his win in the JLT he looks like he will stay and not to be impressed well you just can't. Put my profit for him that day on AP for the gold cup (oh boy how I bet the bookies love when people do that) Have done him for the King George too Ew even if he doesn't win the King George if he stays then he will be A lot shorter than the price he is. Ken The other one I have backed is Don Poli will stay all day long! Relentless galloper who will be able to live with Coneygrees unbelievable pace only thing is he can race a little sluggishly and careless but with the pace likely to be set it should keep him focused and sharp. great horse and another Mullins Clean up operation. Over the course of the season I will be topping these up

 

Good article, beeforsalmon. Do hope we don't get the oft-said crap on here about many top-class races, be it NH or Flat, i.e. "of course, it was a poor renewal". Get sick of reading this.

 

Swanny, you do seem to be a grumpy mood, are you ok?

 

DON POLI is the one I'be backed AP

 

No, no, I'm OK thanks Nass, no more grouchy than usual, just a passing comment. There's some truth in it surely? Seem to read this remark frequently?

 

If you plot a big races results on a graph, with the OR of the winner against the average OR of the field, I am sure you could come up with whether races are vintage or not. I guess its like most things in sport and life, opinion gets put across as fact.

 

I hope everyone was watching today!

Don Cossack jumping round in 2nd gear and winning a G1 with ease. Should be clear favourite for Cheltenham after that, what star quality this horse has!

If he was trained by Mullins he'd be a 6/4 shot