Friday's Meetings Carlisle Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:16p.m. Chepstow Flat 7 Races 1:20-4:50p.m. Epsom Downs Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:45p.m. The Oaks Off @ 4:30p.m. Doncaster(E) Flat 8 Races 5:05-8:50p.m. Tramore(E) N/H 8 Races 5:20-8:20p.m. Down Royal(E) N/H 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Stratford(E) N/H 7 Races 5:35-8:40p.m. Catterick(E) Flat 7 Races 5:55-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
A very interesting renewal of the Oaks which seems to centre around ridiculous Chester winner Savethelastdance and the Gosden pair. I'm going out on a limb here and saying that Savethelastdance will not win. She has a very high knee action and I cannot imagine she will go on the predicted good/good-firm in places. At close to evens she is "lay all day" material. Running Lion won the Pretty Polly Stakes in convincing fashion but the 2nd has let the form down badly since and preference is for Soul Sister. She will relish the ground as she recovered from a total no-show in the Fred Darling (soft) to record a convincing victory in the Musidora (gd/gd-fm in places). Whilst she won't make you rich, she would be a popular winner for Frankel and Frankie.
As the shrewdies amongst us have spotted Raleagh Flora runs at Stratford tomorrow in the restricted race. He had two entries and we’ve agonised all week which race to run in. We really thought we could win the novices race but on paper the restricted looks easier. In fact I’d go as far to say we are a shoe in. We are top weight but Charlie claims 7lb to Captain Biggles so we’re 4lb in. If you could find it online check out Rockys demolition of a good restricted field at Godstone. Our trainers been in this game a long time and told me after the race that I wouldn’t see a more comprehensive victory on a point in field in this country. I’d give penniless another go in the bumper. The previous race at Aintree was messy and the horse clipped heels and the jockey nursed it home. Cheers.
Fr. HUMPHREY 66/1 Stratford 7:05 This is a crazy price for this horse but wait, 40/1 for five places with 365 is even crazier!
Good luck Florida, I really hope he does the business. He has a formline with Kaproyale that would give that one an amazing chance in the opener. Kaproyale Shantou Flyer Sine Nominee Vaucelet (Fr.Humphrey 5 places) Zamparelli Raleigh Flora (saver Fortunes Hill 16/1) Fountainspinklady 12/1
Money coming for ZAMPARELLI in the handicap race at 7:35 Won this nicely off only 3lb higher last year and looks to have been campaigned solely with this in mind. Reducing to two places and taken 14/1 £10 win trixie Shantou Flyer Sine Nominee Raleigh Flora Pays a smidge over £650
With a big meet at Epsom, young Marquand takes a trip up to Donny to ride two for his boss. I row in with OddDog on Soul Sister in the Oaks, should get better the further she goes.
The Oaks is a tough one this year, what with so many of the fillies preferring softer ground conditions. Would have chosen Running Lion, but she has a dreadful draw in Stall-2, would definitely be unsuited to the fast ground, and the best price of around 6/1 makes her a poor bet. Now watch her win! So, I'll plump for the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner, Eternal Hope. At least she should not be inconvenienced by the fast ground, has a reasonable draw, and ridden by 'the best in the business', William Buick, and trained by one of the 'best in the business' too, Charlie Appleby. Current price of 14/1 at time of writing is very fair as well. E/W, of course. The best of luck on Oaks day, folks!
Oaks. Winning by 22l makes me wonder. Is she (Savethelastdance) a monster or were the others straight off Blackpool beach? I think of Gather Ye Rosebuds, slaughtering a field by over 9l but then ran unplaced in higher grade. Given the significant change of ground she encounters tomorrow, those odds look too skinny for me. Clear 2nd fav is Soul Sister at 11/4. Will she be as good over 12f? I'm not so sure. York is one of the easiest tracks and 12f at Epsom, with its uphill start and finish will be a different story. Eternal Hope is the only one to have won over 12f and looks better value at 16/1. However, just 2¾L behind her in the Oaks trial despite running wide and being outpaced over 1f out, running on well, was Bright Diamond. Jockey C Lee re-unites with her tomorrow. He was aboard on all her 3 previous outings, including when winning easily over 7f last year on debut, on gf ground, and when 3rd to Commissioning over a mile on good ground, in a fast time. At 66/1 she looks worth a tiny ew bet
PS based on Timeform ratings my ew selection should finish last. Only one with a lower rating and that one has a large P Timeform weight-adjusted ratings 129p Savethelastdance 128p Soul Sister 127p Running Lion 117p Eternal Hope 116 Heartache Tonight 113 Sea of Roses 112p Be Happy 109 Caernarfon 109 Red Riding Hood 105 Bright Diamond 94P Maman Joon
It is difficult to know what to make of this year’s Oaks with little reliable trial form and a few that simply look like non stayers. The first problem with the Lingfield Oaks Trial was that it was run on the polytrack and the second problem was that it really turned into a sprint in the straight as the Appleby second string was forced to set the fractions; and the time was three seconds slower than the subsequent Derby Trial. Appleby’s first string Eternal Hope won it but she has yet to run on turf in three starts and she ran down the Ballydoyle-trained favourite Be Happy in the final furlong. They paid to add Eternal Hope to this Classic but will she get home in a truly run race? Her half brother Rio de la Plata was a non stayer. I have no idea why fifth Bright Diamond is here as in a truly run race she will surely be a non stayer, her American bred sire now standing in Italy. In the Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp, not usually a trial for the Oaks but the Prix de Diane, David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight was a respectable fourth and she has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side and could run well at a price. The 1000 Guineas form here is very easily discounted. Fourth at HQ was Caernarfon, ten lengths adrift of the winner, and she has nothing in her pedigree to suggest she will stay: her unraced dam was by sprinter Royal Applause. The other entry from the Guineas was Dance In The Grass, who has defected at the declaration stage despite obviously having the stamina for this in her pedigree. Once raced maiden Maman Joon should welcome this step up in trip and I remember her dam winning the Pretty Polly but 50/1 is too short for Richard Hannon’s charge to perform a miracle. Red Riding Hood lost her maiden tag at the seventh attempt at Dundalk on the kitty litter and was run out of a ten furlong Group 3 when last seen. Her dam was a runner up in the 1000 Guineas and her sister won the Irish 1000 Guineas but there is no evidence that she will stay this far. Running Lion won the Pretty Polly with something to spare and has sufficient stamina on the dam’s side to suggest the extra two furlongs are within her range although her sire probably did not quite get home when third in the Derby. She is no forlorn hope for a fifth consecutive win from six career starts if easy ground is not a must have, which perhaps explains her odds shortening this week. Savethelastdance has not raced on anything but easy ground and it is very easy to knock her demolition job in the Cheshire Oaks against moderate opposition. Can she give Galileo another Oaks winner? It is quite possible but at the available odds she is a mug’s bet. Anyone remember Santa Barbara two years ago? Sea Of Roses started 2023 with a fair second at Saint Cloud (Be Happy third) and her pedigree looks fine for the mile and a half with stamina on both sides; however, she was well and truly put in her place in the Musidora at York, won easily by Soul Sister, showing her no show in the Fred Darling (remote last, eased down) to be a blip. Lady Bamford’s filly comes from a good staying family and bids to give her owner and Frankel a second Oaks winner. Soul Sister looked my idea of the winner with victory at York but in a virtually three horse book I will just watch at 9/4.
My attention will be elsewhere but I’m gonna have a couple of quid ew on Maman Joon in the oaks. I like the breeding a second first time out on heavy then put away.
Hunter's Chase Day at Strafford. My beloved Caryto Des Brosses runs but his odds are too low. It is true that he up in trip to 2.5m but he is still a bit short. It was amazing the run he made at Cheltenham over 2m so if he keeps his form he should win. Double 19,05 Law Of Gold 13/8 19,35Caryto Des Brosses 6/4 18,05 Normofthenorth 11//1 e/w bet365 three places, 10/1 others
I keep away from P2P horses running under Rules, found it the best thing to do. But good luck to floridas pearl, I hope his entries win for him! Owners and connections spend a lot of time and money, plus a huge amount of effort in following their charges at P2P meets, often in the most atrocious weather conditions.