2000 Guineas Ante Post Thread

The horse that finished second in that race (Severini) runs in the 2.20 at saint cloud in France tomorrow.

 

I have emotionless at 20-1 which looked fantastic until his final run. As he was said to be all wrong afterwards however I can still hold out a little hope as before that run he looked the real deal. The Ballydoyle horse looks good and it will likely take an exceptional animal to lower his colours. As usual however for the race there will definitely be a couple line up with a real chance that are not yet even on the radar.

 

Whatever Ryan Moore rides will be the one to beat I suppose.

 

Massaat looks a good e/w bet to me, took 16s, 14s best now, id say hes the second best horse in the race, should get closer to Air Force Blue this season but hes going to be hard to beat.

 

I see Timeform are saying Air Force Blue may be the best 2yo O'Brien has ever trained. Will he be the best 3yo? Well over 7f he might be. War Front, his sire, doesn't appear to get horses that stay much past 8f but you'd generally say his dam got 8f well enough. You'd have to imagine Air Force Blue would get 8f but perhaps not much further.
He's run at Newmarket and handled it well. You'd think that it would take a special horse to beat him and I don't think we have seen one yet.

Of course Emotionless was supposed to have been bustling up Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst but came last and was soon under the knife for a bone chip to be removed from his knee. Word is that he has come back strongly but you must take it on trust that he's as good as he looked after the Champagne. Will definitely stay 10f+ you'd think. The current price isn't bad but he has a bit to prove.

 

I really like MARCEL. He didn't look anything special on debut when well beaten in an Ascot maiden but had obviously progressed enormously when winning a similar event at Newcastle. He left that form some way behind when winning the Racing Post Trophy in eyecatching fashion. He has obviously improved in leaps and bounds and could be a live Guineas candidate.
I think he will be better suited with some juice in the ground so early season at Newmarket could be just the job. At three he is likely to be better suited by 1m 2f than the bare mile but at Doncaster he certainly didn't lack a change of gear.
Currently 25/1 with several layers but some nice prices can be found on the exchanges.

 

Hit It A Bomb is generally 20/1 but 66/1 on the Exchange. If anything goes wrong with the fav we might see Ryan Moore on this one. Then it wouldn't be 66/1 on the Exchange

Same sire as the fav but out of a Sadlers Wells mare, which is out of of a Danehill Dancer mare

 

The 2000 Guineas market this year looks very lop-sided.

Based purely on two-year-old form, the impressive favourite Air Force Blue will probably show up and blow away a small field. For the ante post punter, the prospect of getting paid on the second or third in a six or seven runner race may have some appeal if the odds are 16/1 or more (i.e. better than the win odds on Aidan O’Brien’s charge but with a free win chance).

As I do not expect the favourite to see the course before the day of the race, I think that the prize money may tempt more than a few to give it a punt; with the Craven and Greenham winners leading the opposition – if you can figure out who they will be.

Emotionless is generally second favourite with the bookies but I have to say that the Arazi-effect makes him a poor bet in my eyes. Remember the wonder two-year-old having knee-chip surgery and only returning as a Group 3 performer? The poor showing on his last two-year-old start makes him too imponderable for an investment. If he wins one of the trials impressively, then the odds will disappear but I am prepared to wait and see.

Massaat was an easy winner of a Leicester maiden before following home the Dewhurst winner and looks like a contender with natural progression; however, that is factored into the odds. Out with the washing were Jim Bolger’s Sanus Per Aquam and John Gosden’s Tashweeq.

I would not touch Middle Park winner Shalaa as his two-year-old form clearly indicates that he is a sprinter. I cannot see him even showing up, whilst the runner-up, Mark Johnston’s Buratino (only horse to beat Air Force Blue), was heavily raced as a two-year-old and has not raced beyond 6 furlongs.

I have always considered the Racing Post Trophy as more of a Derby trial for two year olds and I have to question 33/1 winner Marcel, previously a Newcastle maiden winner, as Peter Chapple-Hyam’s charge may be a flash in the pan. The third that day was John Gosden’s previously unbeaten Foundation, four lengths in arrears as favourite.

Racing Post runner-up Johannes Vermeer was not Aidan O’Brien’s first string but had been fourth in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère, won by the Godolphin-owned Andre Fabre colt Ultra, where John Gosden’s Cymric (also Godolphin) was runner-up. Unplaced in the Paris bunch finish was Jim Bolger’s Herald The Dawn (Godolphin’s first string), previously second to Air Force Blue in the five-runner National Stakes.

Cymric ventured to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup, where he was unplaced behind Aidan O’Brien’s Hit It A Bomb – but will the winner be heading for the Kentucky Derby rather than Newmarket?

Prominent in the betting are several horses that were lightly raced as two year olds. Saeed bin Suroor’s Jufn won a median auction race on his only start on Chelmsford’s artificial surface whilst John Gosden’s Royal Artillery won his only start on turf at Doncaster.

Well-regarded second start winners include Mootaharer (Newmarket maiden), Brave Hero (Newmarket maiden), Predilection (Kempton median auction maiden, artificial surface) and Sir Michael Stoute’s Estidraak (Kempton maiden, artificial surface).

The complete imponderable in the ante post market is Michael O’Callaghan’s easy Leopardstown Group 3 winner Blue De Vega. He does not have any real form lines with the big guns but if you want to take a punt, good luck.

From an ante post point of view, perhaps the best bet is to assume that the favourite will not show up (or train on) making 16/1 bar one a license to print money if you can pick three or four win bets and one collects.

If Air Force Blue was a three year old in a two year old’s body (i.e. others will catch up over winter), I would have chanced Andre Fabre bringing unbeaten Ultra to Headquarters (20/1) but it is reported that he is being targeted at Epsom not the Guineas.

At this stage, I am sitting it out on both the Newmarket Classic ante post markets as form suggests Aidan O’Brien could win both with the short-priced favourites, although I think 1000 Guineas market leader Minding does not want fast ground.

 

I'll be taking Air Force on- he might not train on, as was a feature of his sire as Bustino alludes to.

He was visually impressive LTO but Emotionless was injured so we can't judge it properly. Too short a price IMO.

Haven't picked a horse to take him on with as of yet, but will have a look

 

Contact of mine was talking to AOB yesterday and he said 'No one will get near Air Force Blue if the ground is good'.Just thought I'd pass that along.

 

Back in 1990, the French would not hear of defeat for the unbeaten Machiavellian at Newmarket. By Sunday morning, they had been silenced by Tirol, who also defeated the French horse in Ireland. O’Brien’s love affair with the blarney stone is legendary. We will see on 30th April...

 

Nothing was going to get near Hawkwing either, as I recall.

 

Was Hawk Wing the unlucky loser against Rock of Gibraltar, finishing like a train on the other side of the track but not getting up?

 

That's the one. Not Jamie "Double Handful" Spencer's finest hour.

 

Didn't he get the boot from Ballydoyle not lo after?

Just found the replay- crikey he flew home and still can't believe he didn't get up!

 

I think he saw the season out at Ballydoyle, but his days were always numbered after that. "The boys" were on Hawkwing for bundles by all accounts.