Bumper analysis of trainers

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by stick, Oct 25, 2021.

  1. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Bumper analysis by trainers.

    I thought I would share this personal analysis as there is a lot more interest in these races these days.

    It is a worthwhile exercise in looking at the stats as in this sphere the prominence of trainers can often change. For example, a few years ago the likes of Warren Greatrex and Charlie Longsdon would have been near the top of the pile on strike rate but both are now some way down the list.

    Trainers with the highest strike rate of wins to runners; (last 5 seasons)

    DR R Newland 33

    A Honeyball 31

    N Henderson 25

    P Nicholls 24

    O Murphy 24

    W Mullins 24

    N Richards 22

    B Ellison 22

    D Pipe 21

    K Bailey 21

    H Fry 21

    K Dalgleish 20

    Anthony Honeyball has for several years been a trainer to follow in bumpers, it seems he buys horses that will offer a quick return. Many however probably do not achieve that much when going hurdling and chasing. His best bumper horse Acey Milan being a fair example. Henderson, Nicholls and Murphy buy very expensive stores so you would expect these sorts of numbers. I am not sure any of them or Mullins offer great value.

    The Northern trainers, Richards, Ellison and Dalgleish are very interesting inclusions on this list. The latter is a dual purpose trainer so he is obviously very shrewd when choosing where to start his young horses.

    Trainers with the worst strike rates; (last 5 seasons)

    H Oliver 0

    O Greenall 2

    Evan Williams 3

    J Candlish 3

    N Hawke 4

    Some notable stables to avoid here but I would be wary of Oliver Greenall. He looks like an up and coming trainer and has had a bumper winner this year so could quite likely rise up the list in the next twelve months.

    Winners this season;

    F O’Brien 6/34

    N Henderson 5/19

    P Nicholls 4/9

    O Murphy 3/15

    This list is useful as it is highly likely that these yards will have the best returns. The early indications are usually a very good guide in the season to come in this sphere.

    Woeful this season;

    M Hammond 0/11

    M Keighley 0/10

    P Bowen 0/9

    C Tizzard 0/7

    H Fry 0/7

    W Greatrex 0/7

    P Kirby 0/7

    K Bailey 0/6

    Interesting to see Tizzard, Fry and Bailey on this list as their runners usually go off plenty short enough.
     
    #1
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Nicholls certainly does a lot better in bumpers these days than a few years ago. His bumper runners had a habit of being over-bet and then under-performing but he seems to have them pretty straight as a rule these days. Henderson's are usually very short in the betting too - maybe Nass can dig out ROI figures for bumper runners per trainer for the last 5 years, I'm pretty sure Newland and Honeyball would be well clear at the top of that table.
     
    #3
  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I must say I do love the puzzle a bumper presents - and I have to thank you stick for getting me interested in these races. Looking at the breeding side, also experience to date and then of course the connections - it all adds up to a nice little challenge and the odds can be very rewarding <ok>
     
    #4
    LordGyllene and stick like this.
  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Trainers with more than 20 runs in bumpers since 1/1/2017.

    Ordered on Profit/Loss at BSP

    Trainer Runners Winners Win S/R WAX EX Wins P/L Betfair
    Brian Eckley 34 4 11.76 2.58 1.42 209.75
    Tim Vaughan 69 5 7.25 -1.67 6.67 150.18
    James Moffatt 33 6 18.18 3.93 2.07 141.65
    Christian Williams 52 4 7.69 -0.05 4.05 137
    Graeme McPherson 74 9 12.16 3.03 5.97 131.55
    Ian Williams 88 13 14.77 2.01 10.99 126.4
    Tom Symonds 46 5 10.87 1.96 3.04 114.45
    Nick Gifford 72 8 11.11 0.21 7.79 103.03
    Emma Lavelle 112 15 13.39 2.61 12.39 92.63
    Seamus Mullins 107 11 10.28 4.59 6.41 84.63
    Alastair Ralph 50 4 8 0.26 3.74 67.15
    Nicky Martin 23 4 17.39 2.5 1.5 63.18
    Paul Webber 54 3 5.56 0.09 2.91 52.54
    Amy Murphy 50 5 10 -0.2 5.2 46.92
    Micky Hammond 124 13 10.48 3.24 9.76 46.43
    Kerry Lee 21 2 9.52 0.38 1.62 43.61
    Chris Gordon 98 14 14.29 2.93 11.07 40.83
    Harry Fry 143 33 23.08 6.76 26.24 40.64
    Ruth Jefferson 32 5 15.63 1.82 3.18 40.02
    Richard Hobson 24 4 16.67 1.44 2.56 33.68
    Ben Case 65 3 4.62 0.13 2.87 33.44
    Suzy Smith 34 5 14.71 1.71 3.29 31.62
    Pam Sly 42 4 9.52 -2.15 6.15 31.41
    W P Mullins 20 4 20 0.6 3.4 30.56
    Lucy Wadham 76 7 9.21 -1.07 8.07 28.48
    Noel Williams 53 6 11.32 1.68 4.32 28.11
    Kim Bailey 159 32 20.13 4.11 27.89 24.13
    Anthony Honeyball 103 33 32.04 8.82 24.18 22.35
    Milton Harris 44 5 11.36 2.06 2.94 22.11
    John O'Shea 27 3 11.11 2.15 0.85 20.57
    Dr Richard Newland 24 8 33.33 3.76 4.24 18.85
    Jeremy Scott 53 6 11.32 2.88 3.12 18.55
    Venetia Williams 61 10 16.39 1.25 8.75 14.9
    Henry Daly 102 11 10.78 1.85 9.15 13.55
    Nicky Richards 112 27 24.11 -0.6 27.6 13.39
    Hughie Morrison 38 7 18.42 0.69 6.31 11.68
    Robert Stephens 30 3 10 0.99 2.01 11.49
    Philip Hobbs 173 24 13.87 -1.02 25.02 9.99
    Richard Phillips 28 5 17.86 2.94 2.06 9.13
    Warren Greatrex 205 27 13.17 -5.62 32.62 7.57
    Victor Dartnall 27 4 14.81 1.48 2.52 6.73
    Jimmy Frost 21 1 4.76 0.56 0.44 6.46
    Mick Channon 28 6 21.43 0.27 5.73 5.45
    Anthony Carson 21 1 4.76 0.4 0.6 4.24
    Laura Morgan 53 11 20.75 4.17 6.83 3.95
    James Ewart 67 6 8.96 -1.48 7.48 3.94
    Tom Lacey 127 22 17.32 -1.4 23.4 3.83
    Jonjo O'Neill 114 20 17.54 2.61 17.39 3.57
    David Pipe 110 21 19.09 3.37 17.63 2.63
    Fergal O'Brien 296 48 16.22 -1.54 49.54 2.52
    Nigel Hawke 61 4 6.56 -0.28 4.28 2.17
    Mrs Melanie Rowley 26 5 19.23 0.76 4.24 -1.15
    Oliver Sherwood 93 11 11.83 -0.06 11.06 -1.22
    Richard Fahey 22 3 13.64 0.67 2.33 -1.58
    Harriet Graham 33 1 3.03 -0.51 1.51 -1.62
    S R B Crawford 78 17 21.79 2.67 14.33 -1.62
    Alistair Whillans 69 3 4.35 0.23 2.77 -1.79
    Jedd O'Keeffe 40 7 17.5 1.64 5.36 -3.07
    Sam Thomas 73 9 12.33 2.68 6.32 -3.97
    Alex Hales 50 4 8 1.05 2.95 -5.43
    Sandy Thomson 37 6 16.22 1.46 4.54 -5.81
    Olly Murphy 180 43 23.89 2.15 40.85 -6.32
    Tom George 100 14 14 -1.75 15.75 -6.46
    Jack R Barber 31 2 6.45 -0.47 2.47 -6.85
    Nick Williams 29 5 17.24 0.13 4.87 -7.97
    Tim Easterby 38 2 5.26 -0.07 2.07 -8.31
    Samuel Drinkwater 27 3 11.11 0.58 2.42 -9.34
    Linda Jewell 23 1 4.35 0.69 0.31 -11
    Peter Niven 26 2 7.69 0.02 1.98 -11.05
    Rebecca Menzies 103 9 8.74 -0.92 9.92 -12.39
    Harry Whittington 114 14 12.28 -3.46 17.46 -13.06
    Nicky Henderson 305 77 25.25 -1.18 78.18 -13.56
    Rose Dobbin 45 5 11.11 0.12 4.88 -13.84
    Brian Ellison 108 23 21.3 2.45 20.55 -14.14
    Paul Nicholls 218 52 23.85 -2.36 54.36 -14.21
    Philip Kirby 163 9 5.52 -4.21 13.21 -14.25
    Michael Scudamore 88 5 5.68 -2.53 7.53 -14.56
    Mark Bradstock 20 1 5 -0.47 1.47 -14.85
    Donald Whillans 53 5 9.43 0.81 4.19 -15.05
    John Quinn 21 2 9.52 -1.51 3.51 -15.28
    Katy Price 32 1 3.13 -0.01 1.01 -15.43
    Bob Buckler 28 2 7.14 1.12 0.88 -15.71
    Gary Hanmer 32 2 6.25 0.74 1.26 -15.75
    Neil Mulholland 125 17 13.6 0.98 16.02 -16.53
    Stuart Edmunds 84 7 8.33 -0.93 7.93 -16.69
    Keith Dalgleish 94 19 20.21 -0.9 19.9 -17.29
    Michael Easterby 29 2 6.9 -0.53 2.53 -18.3
    Simon West 23 1 4.35 -0.07 1.07 -19.64
    Chris Down 31 1 3.23 0.31 0.69 -19.71
    Mark Walford 24 1 4.17 -0.72 1.72 -19.86
    Sue Smith 59 3 5.08 -1.13 4.13 -19.98
    John Norton 20 0 0 -0.27 0.27 -20
    Kevin Bishop 20 0 0 -0.39 0.39 -20
    Robert Walford 20 0 0 -0.52 0.52 -20
    Sarah Humphrey 20 0 0 -0.47 0.47 -20
    Malcolm Jefferson 29 3 10.34 -1.88 4.88 -20.3
    Michael Mullineaux 21 0 0 -0.19 0.19 -21
    Gordon Elliott 42 7 16.67 -4.79 11.79 -21.27
    Johnny Farrelly 42 3 7.14 -0.56 3.56 -21.57
    Debra Hamer 29 2 6.9 0.07 1.93 -21.91
    David Bridgwater 22 0 0 -0.72 0.72 -22
    Fiona Shaw 22 0 0 -0.26 0.26 -22
    Sarah-Jayne Davies 22 0 0 -0.28 0.28 -22
    Stuart Coltherd 26 1 3.85 0.1 0.9 -22.65
    Brian Barr 27 1 3.7 0.31 0.69 -22.9
    Barry Brennan 23 0 0 -0.33 0.33 -23
    Katie Scott 23 0 0 -0.29 0.29 -23
    Richard J Bandey 23 0 0 -0.56 0.56 -23
    Robin Dickin 23 0 0 -0.35 0.35 -23
    Thomas Gallagher 23 0 0 -0.92 0.92 -23
    Neil King 80 7 8.75 0.13 6.87 -23.28
    Ian Duncan 24 0 0 -0.9 0.9 -24
    Susan Corbett 67 4 5.97 1.36 2.64 -25.1
    George Bewley 26 0 0 -0.39 0.39 -26
    Jim Goldie 26 0 0 -1.31 1.31 -26
    Jennie Candlish 33 1 3.03 -0.85 1.85 -26.12
    Clare Hobson 27 0 0 -0.28 0.28 -27
    John Groucott 27 0 0 -0.37 0.37 -27
    N W Alexander 57 3 5.26 -0.28 3.28 -27.15
    Rebecca Curtis 38 2 5.26 -2.99 4.99 -27.3
    Donald McCain 171 24 14.04 0.16 23.84 -28.97
    Ben Pauling 168 17 10.12 -4.53 21.53 -29
    Robert Smith 29 0 0 -0.8 0.8 -29
    Alan King 236 33 13.98 -2.65 35.65 -30.37
    Kayley Woollacott 32 0 0 -0.86 0.86 -32
    Jamie Snowden 131 17 12.98 -2.88 19.88 -32.64
    Iain Jardine 46 3 6.52 -1.91 4.91 -33.55
    David Dennis 38 1 2.63 -1.91 2.91 -35.48
    Bill Turner 36 0 0 -1.14 1.14 -36
    Andrew Crook 38 0 0 -0.46 0.46 -38
    Gillian Boanas 57 3 5.26 -1.52 4.52 -39.48
    Charlie Longsdon 97 9 9.28 -0.44 9.44 -43.92
    Oliver Greenall 51 1 1.96 -2.53 3.53 -49.24
    Lucinda Russell 119 7 5.88 -2.92 9.92 -51.98
    Evan Williams 101 4 3.96 -4.66 8.66 -54.62
    Peter Bowen 86 7 8.14 -4.34 11.34 -54.81
    Sue Gardner 56 0 0 -1.9 1.9 -56
    Chris Grant 95 3 3.16 -1.34 4.34 -59.79
    Nigel Twiston-Davies 241 29 12.03 -3.52 32.52 -70.12
    Martin Keighley 108 6 5.56 -1.08 7.08 -72.27
    Gary Moore 138 11 7.97 -5.23 16.23 -74.73
    Colin Tizzard 128 8 6.25 -5.78 13.78 -80.27
    Dan Skelton 293 48 16.38 -6.41 54.41 -105.56
     
    #5
  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Trainers listed by Winners against Expected (so against market expectations)

    Trainer
    Anthony Honeyball
    Harry Fry
    Seamus Mullins
    Laura Morgan
    Kim Bailey
    James Moffatt
    Dr Richard Newland
    David Pipe
    Micky Hammond
    Graeme McPherson
    Richard Phillips
    Chris Gordon
    Jeremy Scott
    Sam Thomas
    S R B Crawford
    Emma Lavelle
    Jonjo O'Neill
    Brian Eckley
    Nicky Martin
    Brian Ellison
    John O'Shea
    Olly Murphy
    Milton Harris
    Ian Williams
    Tom Symonds
    Henry Daly
    Ruth Jefferson
    Suzy Smith
    Noel Williams
    Jedd O'Keeffe
    Victor Dartnall
    Sandy Thomson
    Richard Hobson
    Susan Corbett
    Venetia Williams
    Bob Buckler
    Alex Hales
    Robert Stephens
    Neil Mulholland
    Donald Whillans
    Mrs Melanie Rowley
    Gary Hanmer
    Hughie Morrison
    Linda Jewell
    Richard Fahey
    W P Mullins
    Samuel Drinkwater
    Jimmy Frost
    Anthony Carson
    Kerry Lee
    Chris Down
    Brian Barr
    Mick Channon
    Alastair Ralph
    Alistair Whillans
    Nick Gifford
    Donald McCain
    Ben Case
    Nick Williams
    Neil King
    Rose Dobbin
    Stuart Coltherd
    Paul Webber
    Debra Hamer
    Peter Niven
    Katy Price
    Christian Williams
    Oliver Sherwood
    Tim Easterby
    Simon West
    Michael Mullineaux
    Amy Murphy
    Fiona Shaw
    John Norton
    Nigel Hawke
    Sarah-Jayne Davies
    Clare Hobson
    N W Alexander
    Katie Scott
    Barry Brennan
    Robin Dickin
    John Groucott
    Kevin Bishop
    George Bewley
    Charlie Longsdon
    Andrew Crook
    Jack R Barber
    Mark Bradstock
    Sarah Humphrey
    Harriet Graham
    Robert Walford
    Michael Easterby
    Johnny Farrelly
    Richard J Bandey
    Nicky Richards
    Mark Walford
    David Bridgwater
    Robert Smith
    Jennie Candlish
    Kayley Woollacott
    Keith Dalgleish
    Ian Duncan
    Rebecca Menzies
    Thomas Gallagher
    Stuart Edmunds
    Philip Hobbs
    Lucy Wadham
    Martin Keighley
    Sue Smith
    Bill Turner
    Nicky Henderson
    Jim Goldie
    Chris Grant
    Tom Lacey
    James Ewart
    John Quinn
    Gillian Boanas
    Fergal O'Brien
    Tim Vaughan
    Tom George
    Malcolm Jefferson
    Sue Gardner
    Iain Jardine
    David Dennis
    Pam Sly
    Paul Nicholls
    Michael Scudamore
    Oliver Greenall
    Alan King
    Jamie Snowden
    Lucinda Russell
    Rebecca Curtis
    Harry Whittington
    Nigel Twiston-Davies
    Philip Kirby
    Peter Bowen
    Ben Pauling
    Evan Williams
    Gordon Elliott
    Gary Moore
    Warren Greatrex
    Colin Tizzard
    Dan Skelton
     
    #6
  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    and by strikerate

    Trainer
    Dr Richard Newland
    Anthony Honeyball
    Nicky Henderson
    Nicky Richards
    Olly Murphy
    Paul Nicholls
    Harry Fry
    S R B Crawford
    Mick Channon
    Brian Ellison
    Laura Morgan
    Keith Dalgleish
    Kim Bailey
    W P Mullins
    Mrs Melanie Rowley
    David Pipe
    Hughie Morrison
    James Moffatt
    Richard Phillips
    Jonjo O'Neill
    Jedd O'Keeffe
    Nicky Martin
    Tom Lacey
    Nick Williams
    Richard Hobson
    Gordon Elliott
    Venetia Williams
    Dan Skelton
    Sandy Thomson
    Fergal O'Brien
    Ruth Jefferson
    Victor Dartnall
    Ian Williams
    Suzy Smith
    Chris Gordon
    Donald McCain
    Tom George
    Alan King
    Philip Hobbs
    Richard Fahey
    Neil Mulholland
    Emma Lavelle
    Warren Greatrex
    Jamie Snowden
    Sam Thomas
    Harry Whittington
    Graeme McPherson
    Nigel Twiston-Davies
    Oliver Sherwood
    Brian Eckley
    Milton Harris
    Jeremy Scott
    Noel Williams
    John O'Shea
    Samuel Drinkwater
    Nick Gifford
    Rose Dobbin
    Tom Symonds
    Henry Daly
    Micky Hammond
    Malcolm Jefferson
    Seamus Mullins
    Ben Pauling
    Robert Stephens
    Amy Murphy
    Kerry Lee
    John Quinn
    Pam Sly
    Donald Whillans
    Charlie Longsdon
    Lucy Wadham
    James Ewart
    Neil King
    Rebecca Menzies
    Stuart Edmunds
    Peter Bowen
    Alex Hales
    Alastair Ralph
    Gary Moore
    Peter Niven
    Christian Williams
    Tim Vaughan
    Bob Buckler
    Johnny Farrelly
    Debra Hamer
    Michael Easterby
    Nigel Hawke
    Iain Jardine
    Jack R Barber
    Gary Hanmer
    Colin Tizzard
    Susan Corbett
    Lucinda Russell
    Michael Scudamore
    Paul Webber
    Martin Keighley
    Philip Kirby
    Tim Easterby
    N W Alexander
    Gillian Boanas
    Rebecca Curtis
    Sue Smith
    Mark Bradstock
    Jimmy Frost
    Anthony Carson
    Ben Case
    Linda Jewell
    Alistair Whillans
    Simon West
    Mark Walford
    Evan Williams
    Stuart Coltherd
    Brian Barr
    Chris Down
    Chris Grant
    Katy Price
    Harriet Graham
    Jennie Candlish
    David Dennis
    Oliver Greenall
    Michael Mullineaux
    Fiona Shaw
    John Norton
    Sarah-Jayne Davies
    Clare Hobson
    Katie Scott
    Barry Brennan
    Robin Dickin
    John Groucott
    Kevin Bishop
    George Bewley
    Andrew Crook
    Sarah Humphrey
    Robert Walford
    Richard J Bandey
    David Bridgwater
    Robert Smith
    Kayley Woollacott
    Ian Duncan
    Thomas Gallagher
    Bill Turner
    Jim Goldie
    Sue Gardner
     
    #7
  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    STAT-TASTIC <cracker>
     
    #8
  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    By the way that first list is the only time you'll see Ruth Jefferson ahead of Willie Mullins <laugh>
     
    #9

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