Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

I would be the happiest man in the world if that were correct but I'm afraid not. I have a strong bet for Ballymore with Envoi Allen @ 20. Unfortunately the words of Elliott after Sunday's victory have been these:

Bought by Cheveley Park for £400,000 after winning his point-to-point, Envoi Allen was the 4-9 favourite for the finale under Jamie Codd and although he showed signs of his inexperience early in the home straight, he came through to beat Port Stanley by four lengths.

Elliott said: “He’s a nice horse, but he’s a horse for next year. We’re only minding him this year.

“He’ll probably have one more run in a bumper and he won’t be going to Cheltenham.

“He’s a baby and has only been on grass once.”

The funny thing is that despite these comments, and after the Malone Road injury, the horse is now favorite for the Cheltenham bumper.

It only takes away my grief, and not much, that I have a bet in the Supreme Quick Grabim @33 and after Sunday he is @16.

 

I really feel for you Pilgrim. There was so much to like about that performance on Sunday. Nothing flashy, just a really taking performance from a horse learning what its all about.

 

Thank you, I had seen a couple of times the point-to-point that he won very easily and the horse jumps well. After buying it for £400,000 I thought he was heading to Ballymore. From my humble point of view for early bets you have to take these risks and in those odds.

 

Most of the Cheltenham Festival is a real minefield for antepost punters. Most of the races are impossible to invest in for anything more than pennies at decent odds but there are one or two exceptions.

Buveur D'air was one and for all the bluster about Apples Jade, she is almost certain to miss the Champion Hurdle. Paddy Power go 20/1 on her for that race despite the easy win at the weekend. People watched the race and interpreted it as brilliance but the assessors gave her a small personal best and decided that the main rivals had run more than a stone below their form. Perspective is crucial and while Apples Jade is a talented mare, she remains short of Champion Hurdle quality and importantly has little form at the 2 mile trip. Her next target is a 3 mile race and Gordon Elliott said she is more or less certain to go to the Mares race at Cheltenham because it is the race she is most likely to win.

I feel the Gold Cup is another race with a good antepost opportunity. Not everyone likes betting ante-post but if you leave it to the NRNB market, you have to accept shrivelled odds. My aim is to select a horse who is guaranteed to target the race and who will be there barring a mishap.

Presenting Percy is the favourite for the Gold Cup and he landed the RSA in good style last season. The win leaves him with more to find but he has scope. The downsides at the odds are him coming out of Novice company now and the fact that his form is all on heavy and soft ground.

Due out in the John Durkan this weekend the trainer stated that he wants rain before that race, the ground is currently good and Presenting Percy sits uneasy in a market where Min is a positive. It would seem there is some doubt about Presenting Percy running and when he is 3/1 for the John Durkan and generally 9/2 for the Gold Cup, the latter price seems short. He needs to prove he has more 170 + runs in him and then the concern may well still be what happens if he doesn't get at least soft in the Gold Cup.

Might Bite is favourite to land the King George for the second time but he's a worrying price at 4/1 to defend his title, after a performance a stone and a half below his best in the Betfair Chase. He never got into his rhythm that day and the excuse given was that he was jumping tentatively because the fences had hard and unforgiving cores.

Might Bite fell on Boxing Day two years back when the race was in the bag. I backed him for the RSA on the heads of that one and had an almighty sweat on my ante-post ticket as he almost threw it away on the run in. Back on ante-post for the Gold Cup this year, I had to watch him go from travelling best, to running out of fuel in the space of 50 yards. That's twice now that Might Bite hasn't come home well at the Festival and it's enough to leave him out of the equation when picking an ante-post for the race.

Horses like Thistlecrack, Sizing John, Douvan etc have problems to overcome, while Road To Respect, Bellshill and Bristol De Mai have question marks on level of quality for Cheltenham in particular. Others in the list seem very speculative/dubious selections and that is why I feel there is outstanding value in my selection at odds of 7/1.

Native River is the reigning Champion and I see every reason why he is likely to defend his title in March. He is a favourite of mine having landed nice ante-post bets for me before. I actually went against him with Might Bite in the Gold Cup this year, as I felt the Henderson chaser might just have the superior speed in a finish but the former Welsh National winner did the business, just rubbing salt into the wounds of his third the previous season when I was on at 33/1 and he wasn't quite up to it.

Native River seemed to simply outstay Might Bite and some may question if he could maintain the superiority were it to turn up better ground this season. While it's true that better ground might help Might Bite, it has the benefit of perhaps being unsuitable for Presenting Percy. Might Bite has now put a question mark against his confidence in jumping and has also looked like he gave away a Gold Cup late in the race and almost gave away an RSA late in the race. Maybe if a slightly faster tempo is set in the Gold Cup it would challenge Might Bite's jumping and make for a more stamina sapping contest than the ground might first idicate.

Despite having been around for a little while Native River will not actually turn 9YO until the 4th of May next year. He has been in the 1st 3 18 times in a 22 race career, and he's been 1st, 2nd or 3rd in 18 of the 20 contests where he has completed. Taking his Chase record on it's own, he has been in the 1st 3 on 15 of 15 occasions and never failed to finish.

Native River's most recent run was not far from his top form and he looked the one horse going into the Betfair that would come on a fair bit for it. Might Bite looked more ready to rock and Bristol De Mai has owned the race at his beloved track for the past few seasons. Being beaten 4 lengths on seasonal debut when his target is next March was an excellent effort.

In the circumstances I feel Native River is an excellent bet at 7/1. For me other contenders could win before the Festival and not improve their chances in the bigone that much. After the King George we could see Might Bite fail to impress and anything less than exemplary from Presenting Percy could see confidence behind his bid on the wane.

I would love to see Native River in the Grand National one day but perhaps not. In the meantime I reckon he can make some history by defending his crown.

7/1 looks too big, so I am on and will try to trickle more on over the coming weeks.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Native River 7/1.

Merry Christmas.

 

There will be a new fave for the Triump in a couple of hours time in the form of Adjali.

His French form reads very well and with the right connections.

Back him now and cashout if he flops!

 

There was a bit of a piece about him in yesterday’s ‘Weekender’ forecasting that Adjali would be Triumph hurdle fave after today’s MR race. His last 2 runs now look exceptional as the 2 animals who finished in front of him last time, at Auteuil, have gone on to win a Grade 1 and a Grade 2. And previously to that 3rd place Adjali had beaten Quel Destin (now with Mr Nicholls) comfortably. Not got far to go though to be Triumph fave as Adjali is already 2nd fave!

I do think though that the MR race this afternoon is well above average because as well as the Skelton and King horses, who have experience, you also have Al Kherb who was a dual winner for Mr Charlton, on the level, this summer. Quite surprised that this one went for as cheap as 40,000 gns in the sales in October. It should be a highly informative heat and one to watch, people.

 

As I had suggested earlier, Presenting Percy misses the John Durkan on Sunday. Only five go to post for that one. I felt Min was the one for the race, given that he was positive at 3/1 and Presenting Percy on the drift.

Sometimes ante post does not have to be about that long term an investment and beating the decs is enough to grab an edge.

I am with Min at 3/1 for the John Durkan but I don't really see his as a Gold Cup horse at all. I felt it was a one off for the John Durkan at the right price with Presenting Percy likely to miss the race due to the better ground. Generally 5/4 Min for Sunday's race, so I am happy with that.

Pontification mode is disabled. Only here to suggest ideas.

 

Happy with Min at the ante-post odds in today's John Durkan. 3/1 seemed a nice investment. I won't touch him for the Gold Cup but this looked winnable and he made it.

He is pretty much certain to miss the Gold Cup and I had to laugh at Balko Des Flos at as low as 12/1 for the race. Come off it bookmakers.

Satisfied with Native River at 7/1 for the Gold Cup. If all goes to plan I reckon he will line up at no more than 3/1 and I feel he will take the beating.

 

Was hugely impressed with Bags Groove yesterday. I haven't heard/read any post race comments but i don't see him in the Novice 3m at Kempton on boxing day ante post lists.
20/1 for the RSA currently. Jumped really quick and accurate and decent yardstick in Thomas Campbell giving weight away.

 

Agreed, very impressive as he's been on his first 2 trips to the racecourse this year. As far as antepost goes though JLT or RSA. 14/1 & 20/1 respectively. I'd edge towards JLT as yesterday was his first go at anything like 3 miles over timber or fences. Not sufficiently confident to part with cash though. I didn't think Lalor lost much in defeat and his price for the Arkle hasn't far off doubled as a result. He still jumped well but just couldn't quicken like he did at Cheltenham in the ground.

 

“By sending Bags Groove to Huntingdon we felt we were putting him on trial for the Kauto Star Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and his stylish, emphatic victory was just the answer we were looking for from this very exciting novice.

We were confident he would get the trip and while he will meet stronger opposition there we now have cause for optimism heading to a track that should play to his strengths provided the ground doesn’t get too soft.

Bags Groove has always shaped like a high class horse at home and it is lovely to see him confirming our high opinion of him.”

Harry Fry website

 

I note the races mentioned for Bags Groove, on here, are the RSA and JLT. But why not the CGC for which he also quoted (50/1)?!? Especially when you consider that his trainer ran one in the race last term (of the same age) on just his 6th career start. Not owned by a major owner so you would imagine Harry Fry would have a big input on where he went.

Personally I don’t know if Kempton is the ideal track for Santini. However, at this stage in his chasing career its all about, as old boy Tony Blair used to say, ‘eductaion, education, education’ rather than the result. Santini will learn plenty from a proper Grade 1 test over the big ‘uns.

Meanwhile, Tom Segal has tipped an ‘each way Festival double’ to his regular readers (a noble breed but not up to the standard of mine) in today’s Weekender. Min, at 12’s, in the ‘Champion Chase’ and Charbel, 16’s, in the ‘Ryanair’. Bit of movement re the latter, this morn, and now only 16’s in one place.

 

I'll be interested to see how Cracking Smart has matured (and also how he has recovered from his set back that kept him out of Cheltenham this year). He's entered in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown on 28th Dec (20/1) and has an entry at Cheltenham in the RSA Novice chase (also 20/1). He was a big baby when finishing 1l behind Next Destination and looked to be one that would improve past that horse. Not sure what the setback was but the time off the track whilst still a baby will have done him nothing but good. Can't wait to see how he looks

 

Whilst I know you have to take what trainers say with a pinch of salt but I believe the trainer wants to keep Charbel to flat tracks and also wishes to step him up to 3m. I wouldnt be at all surprised if he didnt go to Cheltenham at all.

 

He remains in hurdles this season.

 

Do you know something Pilgrim?

 

From Racing Post Dec 3:

"Elliott is not rushing Cracking Smart back into action after surgery and will keep the six-year-old to hurdles for this season.

"He had an operation for kissing spines, and that's why he hasn't been out for a while," he said.

"I think he's a very good horse. But it's getting on a bit in the season, and I might just keep him to hurdles."

 

Nasty. If he was suffering some effects from that when we watched him he could be even better than we thought. Hopefully we can watch his race on Dec 28th to see how he appears. I wonder why he is entered in the RSA and not a hurdle race. I see Next Destination is half the price of Cracking Smart for the RSA which is interesting as I don't thing he will beat CS again

 

Bet365 are NRNB on

Champion Hurdle
Champion Chase
Ryanair Chase
Stayers' Hurdle
Gold Cup