Off Topic City Board Betting Thread

2 winners. 2 decent odds places so far…more to follow I hope

 

Decent value on a Doncaster win.
1st in the form table.
Crewe are 20th.

 

what odds? I fancy them to get promoted

 

2.5

 

cheers. Too short to interest me

 

VIP CHESTER DAY ONE

Comps back win up to £250 today on twitter
https://x.com/racingtipsn/status/1788101762991178177?s=46

Chester is a notoriously difficult meet to find winners but definitely one of my favourites and we have done well here in the past few years. As always there will be an emphasis on those horses drawn in stall 1, especially over the 5 furlong races but it doesn’t guarantee winners and in my experience not something to get too carried away with. I’ve only one tipped from stall one today so if you are a big believer in that bias just stick a lucky one the stall 1 horses today for a bit of interest.

CHESTER TIPS

1.30 CHESTER - AURIC 7/1 & CALL GLORY 28/1 - 0.5 EW win
2.05 CHESTER - LADY LIGHTNING 11/2 - 1 point EW
2.35 CHESTER - BLUE STORM 8/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid
3.05 CHESTER - GALILEO DAME 9/4 1 point win & BEELEY 8/1 - 0.5 EW
3.40 CHESTER - HIDDEN LAW 15/8 - 1 point win
4.10 CHESTER - NO BET
4.45 CHESTER - G’DAAY 8/1 and HES A GENTLEMAN 20-1 0.5 EW

1.30 CHESTER - AURIC 7/1 & CALL GLORY 28/1 - 0.5 EW win - 4 paid

Hugo Palmer and Micheal Owen use these meeting as their main target of the year. I’ve been and seen their set up before at Chester. They have a massive entourage and always tend to do well here. They have David Egan booked for AURIC. He has ran 3 times including a win at Kempton but has 3 solid runs under his belt at this point and still looks to have improvement in him. Not ideally drawn but he’s obviously liked and fancied by the yard as a lot of money came for him last time out at Windsor. He was touched off by SOUTH SHORE and will need improve from that to win here today.

CALL GLORY is the one I prefer most form stall 3. At 28/1 I just think he’s well overpriced here and good value IF he can come off the pace behind the leaders. He has two wins under his belt - both using these tactics where he sat behind the pace to pick up in the final furlong. Has a lot to find on recent form.

2.05 CHESTER - LADY LIGHTNING 11/2 - 1 point EW

LADY LIGHTNING is the only horse from stall 1 I’ve picked for this afternoon. This 5 furlong race see’s EW value at 11/2 for our selection who won a class 4 on debut at Wolves. Hollie Doyle is one of the best jockeys to ride from the front. Hopefully we get out the stalls quickly and don’t see our other rivals.

2.35 CHESTER - BLUE STORM 8/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid

KINGS MERCHANT will prove very popular with plumb draw, OISIN MURPHY on board and arriving on a nice win. Our selection BLUE STORM arrives on a nice win of his own. He was trapped behind horse, found a gap and then went on to win by 3 lengths eased down. Now this race is a bit more difficult but he’s a horse that loves to come off the pace and that tends to be what’s needed to win races at Chester. Bookies are paying 4 for this one so a good EW bet.

3.05 CHESTER - GALILEO DAME 9/4 1 point win & BEELEY 8/1 - 0.5 EW

This one is actually out of GALILEO GOLD rather than GALILEO but his gold namesake was no slouch himself with Group 1 wins in the classic 2000 Guineas and a memorable win at Ascot in the St James Palace. GALILEO DAME beat a strong fav at Leopardstown and did so convincingly. Has some big entries lined up over summer and this looks to be a stepping stone towards group races. Looks like a very nice prospect.

BEELEY is out of CAMELOT and owned and bred by the Duke of Devonshire. I’ve tipped this horse 3 times now but we have only had one run from her. She’s got loose twice and withdrawn. Even last time out when she did get a run she had to be loaded without the jockey, she is obviously a filly that is a bit immature and with the right handling should see more improvement. There can be no man better for the job than this than John Gosden and although there are obvious risks that come when betting on her - she is great value and in my opinion remains unexposed. She was only beaten by a very smart prospect LTO and should run well here again today. 8/1 and 3 places paid is only available on SKY. Two places paid elsewhere so take the 3 with sky.


3.40 CHESTER - HIDDEN LAW 15/8 - 1 point win

Scott told me to watch HIDDEN LAWS last race so I have done this morning and HIDDEN LAW was well held by Buick until he finally said go and extended by 6 lengths to beat CLOCKMAKER (who looks worth tracking himself) - honestly it didn’t look like HIDDEN LAW got out of 3rd gear. It was visual impressive and the time on the clock backed it up. The big question is whether or not HIDDEN LAW and Nucik can stop the domination of the O Brien team who have won this Chester Vase in 7 years of the past 10 years. The market keeps switching favouritism between our selection and GROSVENOR SQUARE. It will be an uphill challenge to best Moore from stall one but this one is raced over 1 mile 4 so the bias is not as effective. This represents a step up in class for HIDDEN LAW where as GROSVENOR SQUARE won a Group 3 last time out. The market thinks the race will be between these two but I wouldn’t rule out the Frankel colt CARDOGAN PLACE. He will be an improved article after a trappy debut.

4.10 CHESTER - NO BET

4.45 CHESTER - G’DAAY 8/1 and HE’S A GENTLEMAN 20/1 - 0.5 EW

If you can ignore his last run where he was terrible then you have a 20/1 long shot whose form reads 422312122 over the past ten races. Surely he can be forgiven for one bad run. He’s been going off at prices of 7/2, 2/1, 10/3 so I can’t say no to a small bet at 20/1. This is a step up in class for the horse but I know he can give a good showing.

G’DAAY also looks good value here for a bet at 8/1. Sean Levey has a good Chester record and his experience will benefit G’DAAY who is not the most straightforward horse to ride. He pulled Daniel Muscat’s arms near off at Chelmsford last month - but still finished well in 4th. I think Sean will try and do the job from the front with this one - these tactics brought his last win up at Epsom last year.

TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 6.5

 

Hidden Law very impressive. O'Brien tried the usual pacemaker/catch me if you can, both well beaten.

 

nice winner! Onto the next

edit…
HIDDEN LAW has broke down after the race and unfortunately looks to be a fatal injury

Sad and shocking really can’t believe that’s just happened

 

VIP CHESTER

Chat open - https://t.me/ 7akvfQJpxtNmYTE0

1 point double - NEVER SO BRAVE (2.35) and ARCH LEGEND (4.45)

These two are quite short so a small 1 point double. NEVER SO BRAVE has shown signs of being a very nice horse. Ryan Moore is on, he arrives up in class but off the back of an impressive win and his form line is strong. He was half a length go subsequent G1 winner VANDEEK at Nottingham last year and only bested by half a length. Stiffer task but hopefully up for it today. ARCH LEGENDS handicap race looks harder but he is a clear fav at 13/8 with Chester favourite Franny Norton on board. He is usually sound and reliable around Chester and rarely ends the meet without a winner.

1.30 CHESTER - ROMAN DRAGON 9-2 - 1 point win
2.05 CHESTER - PASSING PHRASE 7/2 - 1 point win
3.05 CHESTER - BRACKENS LAUGH 9/2 - 1 point win
3.40 CHESTER - ARREST 7/2 - 1 point win
4.10 CHESTER - AL RUFA 12/1 - 0.5 EW win

1.30 CHESTER - ROMAN DRAGON 9-2 - 1 point win

ROMAN DRAGON has been rested recently for this race and arrives with solid form. He has the plumb draw and OISIN MURPHY is booked for the ride. I think this looks to be a race between him and DEMOCRACY DILEMMA who are the two best horses and drawn out of stalls 1 and 2 for this 5 furlong race. Most of the others in this line up arrive in poor form. If I was to take an EW chance here it would be on tracker horse NIGHT ON EARTH but he has a poor draw and has to contend with a 7lb rise for his recent win. At least he is running well unlike others.

2.05 CHESTER - PASSING PHRASE 7/2 - 1 point win

For the 2.05 not much I’m keen on for an EW. Lots to prove with most of these horse who have had lacklustre and mediocre performances of late. BRETTON WOOD who is 12/1 might be the shout for an EW. 5th on debut this Frankel colt may well improve for that experience and looks unexposed in comparison to some of the others at big prices in the field. It might pay to stick with PASSING PHRASE who ran well on heavy ground on debut. He is well bred with multiple winners in the family. All good ground horses and those conditions should be found at Chester today.

3.05 CHESTER - BRACKENS LAUGH 9/2 - 1 point win

I have to admit this race left me a bit baffled. Scott has given me a bit of word for BRACKENS LAUGH with Finley Marsh on board for Richard Hughes. I’m having a small go and also trying a reverse forecast with CAPULET who I track.

3.40 CHESTER - ARREST 7/2 - 1 point win

Won the Vase last year and will attempt to maintain that Chester unbeaten record today. I think ARREST can be forgiven for flopping on season debut as missed the break entirely. I also felt running down the grandstand rail was a bad idea that day and those tactics simply didn’t pay off. Frankie was on board last year when winning the Vase and they did so out of a middle draw in a small field. The fields larger today and full of proper horses including consistent Group performers DEAVUILLE LEGEND and POINTS LONDSDALE. We will need to see the BEST version of ARREST today to win this. I’m happy to try ARREST again at this price 7/2. If he was near odds on today, i’d look elsewhere for value.

4.10 CHESTER - AL RUFAA 20/1 - 0.5 EW win - 4 paid or 14/1 - 5 paid sky

Big drift on AL RUFAA he was 12/1 when I started my write up and now out to 20/1. Lots to find on current form but Jim Crowley rates an interesting jockey booking and choice. He has a solid record at Chester. He nearly won a class 3 a Wolves in February so should remain competitive as he runs of the same mark of 89 today.

TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 5.5

 

VIP THURSDAY

Golf posted yesterday starts at 4pm if anyone wants to follow…

TWITTER CASH PRIZE comp prize increased with no winner yesterday - enter here -
https://x.com/racingtipsn/status/1788483881760387426?s=46


Morning all - a couple of fancies outside Chester today at Brighton and Huntingdon. I think ADACE should be able to reverse terms with fav HEERS SADIE in the 4.23. With the claimer taken into account ADACE has nearly a stone to play with after last weeks close contest between the two. HAVANA FORCE has hit the bar a few times for the in form Botti team and I’m hoping the booking of Hollie Doyle today will be enough to get the horse over the line as it’s been unlucky in fairness. Finally I’ve had a small go on two in the 2.25 on both BLUE BELLA and KENTFORD MALLARD. Both are tracked horses, BLUEBELLA is back from a long break but finished last season strongly. KENTFORD MALLARD was unlucky not to get the job done last time out and looks a big price to follow up with another good run this afternoon.

TIPS:

2.48 BRIGHTON - HAVANA FORCE 5/2 - 1 point win
4.23 BRIGHTON - ADACE 9/2 - 1 point win
2.25 HUNTINGDON - BLUEBELLA 7/1 and KENTFORD MALLARD 11/1 - 3 paid - 0.5 EW

TOTAL POINTS 3.

Chester tips posted by 12 latest.
Cheers
Nate

 

Validated
2:48 Brighton

from the trainer. He has Said it’s working better than their winner last night and expects it to win today.

5 points to win

 

Boom…decent odds winner

 

4.23 Brighton.... could be an apt winner. hopefully ... HUL AH BALOO

 

VIP FRIDAY

CASH PRIZE won on twitter yesterday - we have another comp up today with a chance to win up to £150 - https://x.com/racingtipsn/status/1788874853409304622?s=46

Very poor results at Chester this week (we have hit a number of close seconds 25/1, 7/2, 4/1, 7/1 that are simply the difference between profit and loss) - very frustrating, alongside some duff efforts. I’m not changing anything for the time being, will have another good go at Chester today and see if we can have a profitable day here to end the festival.

1.30 CHESTER - BOARDMAN 8/1 - 0.5 EW - 4 paid
2.05 CHESTER - NO BET
2.35 CHESTER - CITY STREAK 7/2 - 1 point win (Saver WADACRE GRACE 20/1 sky only 4 paid)
3.05 CHESTER - PASSENGER 9/4 - 1 point win
3.40 CHESTER - ZOFFEE 13/2 & TOO FRIENDLY 12/1 - 6 paid sky - 0.5 EW
4.15 CHESTER - BAEZ 12/1 - 4 paid - 0.5 EW
4.50 CHESTER - NO BET
5.23 CHESTER - NO BET

1.30 CHESTER - BOARDMAN 8/1 - 0.5 EW

Sky are doing the money back offer in this race if your horse finishes up to 4th and 4 places are paid elsewhere. I’ve stuck with my tracker BOARDMAN who is 3 time course winner here at Chester. His last win came here last summer off a mark of 97. He was hit with a mark of 103 after this and struggled when tried at Group level, his poor form in handicaps has seen his mark fall now 3lbs below his last winning mark and he’s back at his beloved Chester after showing signs of a resurgence in his last race before facing trouble in running.

2.35 CHESTER - CITY STREAK 7/2 - 1 point win (Saver WADACRE GRACE 20/1 sky only 4 paid)

Sky are paying 4 places for this 2.35 race - I think a small saver on WADACRE GOMEZ at 20-1 looks a credible bet. There’s only 8 runners in this race so I think he is worth a gamble with Franny Norton on board. I have my main bet on OISIN MURPHY and CITY STREAK. This horse race well LTO at Bath despite the heavy conditions. Holds very good course form at Chester with two runs, one win and a second place and is well drawn for todays race. Looks good value to take on the short price Varian fav.

3.40 CHESTER - SPIRIT MIXER 18/1 & TOO FRIENDLY 12/1 - 6 paid sky - 0.5 EW

ZOFFEE is too short with sky now at 11/2 but I think this one will defy current form and run a big race.. Plenty of money has come for ZOFFEE throughout the week for the big race. Had my eye on Irish raider THE SHUNTER as well, he’s now been withdrawn. There’s 17 runners in this one and it’s always one of the highlights of the week with a massive £170,000 up for grabs. I’m having my bets on TOO FRIENDLY and SPIRIT MIXER. Still runs of a high mark of 94 but does have a 3lb claimer on board today that leaves him 1lb higher than his last win. That win came here at Chester last year - he’s been poor in his last few outings, hence the big price today. The Balding team have tried new head gear on him and I’m certain this race is the target for this Frankel colt this year. TOO FRIENDLY is a dual purpose horse that has solid form over hurdles with some nice wins lately including one at Kempton. The flat form is less impressive but the mark is protected and he looks well handicapped for this race at a big price.

4.15 CHESTER - BAEZ 12/1 - 4 paid - 0.5 EW

Hopefully BAEZ can bounce back after a tame effort when seen back out at Musselburgh. It was almost too bad to be true, finishing 11th. Her form to the end of last season read 323211113.. that final 3rd place was here at Chester where I backed her and expected a better run in all honesty. She’s back up in trip today and well worth chancing a return to form at a price of 12/1.


TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 3.5

 

I’ll be having a Norwich & Southampton double at 8.1 this weekend

 

Didn’t back many today, got lucky with the one I did back

 

Be lucky


VIP Saturday

Twitter cash comp - £160 prize today - https://x.com/racingtipsn/status/1789174732375429393?s=46

Few winners and places yesterday. Will send a few sets of tips out today as lots on but main bets I’m having today are at Lingfield.


2.25 LINGFIELD - DANIELLE 11/10 - 1 point win

Still available at 11/10 but most bookies are at evens for DANIELLE. She steps up from class 5 company and is thrown in as favourite for this listed race but she’s an exciting prospect and the visual of her winning at Wetherby left a lasting impression. It’s easy to get carried away but she looked quite special and I’d suggest anyone to watch that race this morning if you haven’t seen it. It’s all well and good doing the job at class 5, this is a massive step up for the cracksman filly. Been waiting to see her run again to see if she is the real deal or not… we will find out today.

3.00 LINGFIELD - DEFIANCE 2/1- 1 point win - (Saver THE EUPHRATES 7/1)

This is a listed derby trial and a race I’ve looked forward to all week. There’s a lot of talk about the favourite ILLINOIS who is looking to go off around 15/8. I will be surprised to see him go much shorter and would imagine if anything the other Aiden O Brien horse THE EUPHRATES at 7/1 is likely to find market support. THE EUPHRATES finished 2+ lengths ahead of ILLINOIS at Leopardstown last time out and he won his race previous to this at Gowran Park. I wouldn’t overlook the Frankel Colt and think he is a good saver at 7/1. ILLINOIS needs to reverse this form on the same terms - I think the fact Ryan Moore has chosen ILLINOIS over THE EUPHRATES will affect this price as on form it should really be THE EUPHRATES nearer the top of the market.

Obviously taking on Ryan Moore is a risk at any time - he’s riding very well this week but I have been waiting for DEFIANCE to run again for the Varian team and this derby hopeful looks smart. Only beaten by the sharply progressing balding horse BELLUM JUSTUM last month - I personally thought this horse would be clear fav for this race. Happy to take the 2/1 here - think it’s good value and looking forward to this race to see what comes out of it as the Derby starts to take shape…

3.35 LINGFIELD - VETVIER 18/1 - 1 point EW win - 3 paid

VETVIER is the over priced horse in this race. I can look past her last run where she was 16th in the Doncaster handicap as it’s the only real blemish on her record. This 4 year old is quite lightly raced and her form reads 2114135 with that 5th place coming at Ascot in October in the Balmoral which was a 20 runner (she was 2 lengths off the winner in a bunched finish)
Her last run came from a break off nearly 6 months so I think she will be better today. She is a listed winner, this group contest is not unwindable for her at her best by any means.

TOTAL POINTS - 3

 

VIP SATURDAY - ASCOT - HAYDOCK - HEXHAM

There’s 7 meets on today so Lingfield is sent and here is Ascot / Hay / Hex. Look for extra places on the EW shouts today where possible guys.

NAP comp and chat open here if want to get involved - https://t.me/ 3yZk01osNWZjYmY0

Going to look at the other cards now might be one or two more today…

3.50 HAYDOCK - POET MASTER 6/4 - 1 point

Burke horses are in good form this week but POET MASTER looks one of his best inmates with plenty of potential. Day of reckoning is here for this one . Arrives on a hat trick steps up to listed company in a race with vets like POGO - the competition are big EW value in this despite having more experience and proven at the level. POET MASTER can show us how good he is today, or isn’t. Should win in my opinion and potentially progress to group level moving forward…

5.45 HEXHAM - I AM MAX 2/1 - 1 point win

Best price is 9/4 but most bookies are at 2/1 including sky which is the price I’ve taken. Unbeaten so far - will take a step up in class here and more will be needed but he has the benefit of running here at Hexham for a bumper, which he won nicely before moving o n to hurdles. Handicap debut today off a mark off 112 - looks to have plenty more to give as it stands and should be going close again in bid for hat trick.

LONGSHOTS

2.40 ASCOT - PEARL D’OR 6/1 & HICKORY 9/1 - 0.5 EW

I’m finding it hard to get away from PEARL D’OR today - fancied everywhere, hits plenty of the desired metrics for a big and looks to have a solid chance despite being quite short at 6/1. Looks the one to beat with his record her record at Ascot yielding a win and two solid place efforts in similar quality races. I’ve gone with HICKORY aswell here, one of the tracked horses that has won for us in the past. SAFFIE OSBOURNE rides as usual. Second behind ZERO CARBON at Kempton in recent race. ZERO CARBON is 40/1 but not usually as effective on turf where as HICKORY has a fair record here and can put a big run together off a dangerous mark.

3.15 HAYDOCK - BALLEE 12/1 & AFADIL 14/1 - 0.5 EW

BALLE ran second behind AFADIL at Aintree in April in a class 2 race. They are both solid horses and good EW value here. I’ve been tipping AFADIL a lot the past year and she rarely rarely lets us down and has provided us a few wins and places at decent prices. BALLEE has been on the radar for a few months now. He unseated at Chepstow and would have probably beat our selection PHANTOOFTHEPOINTS. He looks a good horse and I’ve since watched a few of his runs - not the best jumper but has some engine - none more so when demonstrated by a 25 length romp at Taunton earlier in the year.

TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 4.

Good luck all
Nate

 

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